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Integration of future water scarcity and electricity supply into prospective LCA: Application to the assessment of water desalination for the steel industry

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Listed:
  • Paul Baustert
  • Elorri Igos
  • Thomas Schaubroeck
  • Laurent Chion
  • Angelica Mendoza Beltran
  • Elke Stehfest
  • Detlef van Vuuren
  • Hester Biemans
  • Enrico Benetto

Abstract

The urgency of tackling global environmental issues calls for radical technological and behavioral changes. New prospective (or ex ante) methods are needed to assess the impacts of these changes. Prospective life cycle assessment (LCA) can contribute by detailed analysis of environmental consequences. A new stream of research has taken up the challenge to create prospective life cycle inventory (LCI) databases, building on projections of integrated assessment models to describe future changes in technology use and their underlying environmental performance. The present work extends on this by addressing the research question on how to project life cycle impact assessment methods for water scarcity consistent with prospective LCI modeling. Water scarcity characterization factors are projected from 2010–2050 using the AWARE method, based on SSP‐RCP scenario results of the integrated assessment model IMAGE. This work is coupled with prospective LCI databases, where electricity datasets are adapted based on the energy component of IMAGE for the same scenario. Based on this, an LCA case study of water desalination for the steel industry in Spain is presented. The resulting regional characterization factors show that some regions (i.e., the Iberian Peninsula) could experience an increase in water scarcity in the future. Results of the case study show how this can lead to trade‐offs between climate change and water scarcity impacts and how disregarding such trends could lead to biased assessments. The relevance and limitations are finally discussed, highlighting further research needs, such as the temporalization of the impacts.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul Baustert & Elorri Igos & Thomas Schaubroeck & Laurent Chion & Angelica Mendoza Beltran & Elke Stehfest & Detlef van Vuuren & Hester Biemans & Enrico Benetto, 2022. "Integration of future water scarcity and electricity supply into prospective LCA: Application to the assessment of water desalination for the steel industry," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 26(4), pages 1182-1194, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:inecol:v:26:y:2022:i:4:p:1182-1194
    DOI: 10.1111/jiec.13272
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Nils Thonemann & Anna Schulte & Daniel Maga, 2020. "How to Conduct Prospective Life Cycle Assessment for Emerging Technologies? A Systematic Review and Methodological Guidance," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-23, February.
    2. Joule A. Bergerson & Adam Brandt & Joe Cresko & Michael Carbajales‐Dale & Heather L. MacLean & H. Scott Matthews & Sean McCoy & Marcelle McManus & Shelie A. Miller & William R. Morrow & I. Daniel Pose, 2020. "Life cycle assessment of emerging technologies: Evaluation techniques at different stages of market and technical maturity," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 24(1), pages 11-25, February.
    3. Detlef Vuuren & Elke Stehfest & Michel Elzen & Tom Kram & Jasper Vliet & Sebastiaan Deetman & Morna Isaac & Kees Klein Goldewijk & Andries Hof & Angelica Mendoza Beltran & Rineke Oostenrijk & Bas Ruij, 2011. "RCP2.6: exploring the possibility to keep global mean temperature increase below 2°C," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 95-116, November.
    4. Rickard Arvidsson & Anne‐Marie Tillman & Björn A. Sandén & Matty Janssen & Anders Nordelöf & Duncan Kushnir & Sverker Molander, 2018. "Environmental Assessment of Emerging Technologies: Recommendations for Prospective LCA," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 22(6), pages 1286-1294, December.
    5. Detlef Vuuren & Jae Edmonds & Mikiko Kainuma & Keywan Riahi & Allison Thomson & Kathy Hibbard & George Hurtt & Tom Kram & Volker Krey & Jean-Francois Lamarque & Toshihiko Masui & Malte Meinshausen & N, 2011. "The representative concentration pathways: an overview," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 5-31, November.
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    1. Joris Šimaitis & Stephen Allen & Christopher Vagg, 2023. "Are future recycling benefits misleading? Prospective life cycle assessment of lithium‐ion batteries," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 27(5), pages 1291-1303, October.

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