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Determinants of the Returns†Earnings Correlation

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  • PERVIN K. SHROFF

Abstract

. The weak correlation between accounting earnings and security returns documented by numerous empirical studies is an issue of concern in current accounting research. Given that price is determined not solely by accounting earnings but also by other sources of information about future earnings, this paper focuses on the relation between earnings and other information to understand the returns†earnings association. The analysis indicates that current earnings exhibit high explanatory power for returns if they correlate with expected future earnings (or with other information that reflects expected future earnings). A high price†to†earnings (P/E) ratio coupled with a high return on equity (ROE) can ex ante indicate earnings growth, and the earnings of firms with these attributes are positively correlated with future earnings. The high†growth subset obtains an impressive returns†earnings R2 of 31 percent and an earnings coefficient of 6.17, demonstrating that it is possible to identify firms whose earnings are strongly correlated with returns using a parsimonious set of firm characteristics. Résumé. La faible corrélation entre les bénéfices comptables et le rendement des titres de placement sur laquelle se sont penchés de nombreux auteurs d'études empiriques retient aujourd'hui l'attention des chercheurs en comptabilité. Le cours des titres étant déterminé non seulement par les bénéfices comptables mais aussi par d'autres sources d'information relative aux bénéfices futurs, l'auteur s'intéresse ici à la relation entre les bénéfices et d'autres renseignements, dans le but d'expliquer le lien entre rendement et bénéfices. L'analyse révèle que les bénéfices courants ont un pouvoir explicatif élevé à l'égard du rendement si ce dernier est en corrélation avec les bénéfices futurs prévus (ou avec d'autres renseignements indicateurs des bénéfices futurs prévus). Un ratio cours/bénéfice élevé associé à un rendement des capitaux propres élevé peut indiquer, ex ante, une croissance des bénéfices, et les bénéfices des entreprises qui possèdent ces caractéristiques sont en corrélation positive avec les bénéfices futurs. Le sous†groupe des entreprises à forte croissance obtient un R2 étonnant de 31 pour cent, résultat d'une analyse de régression du rendement par rapport aux bénéfices, et un coefficient de bénéfices de 6,17, ce qui démontre qu'il est possible de déterminer quelles sont les entreprises dont les bénéfices présentent une forte corrélation avec le rendement, lorsqu'on utilise un ensemble parcimonieux de caractéristiques des entreprises.

Suggested Citation

  • Pervin K. Shroff, 1995. "Determinants of the Returns†Earnings Correlation," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 12(1), pages 41-55, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:coacre:v:12:y:1995:i:1:p:41-55
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1911-3846.1995.tb00480.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Easton, Pd & Harris, Ts, 1991. "Earnings As An Explanatory Variable For Returns," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(1), pages 19-36.
    2. Ohlson, Ja & Shroff, Pk, 1992. "Changes Versus Levels In Earnings As Explanatory Variables For Returns - Some Theoretical Considerations," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(2), pages 210-226.
    3. Easton, Peter D. & Harris, Trevor S. & Ohlson, James A., 1992. "Aggregate accounting earnings can explain most of security returns : The case of long return intervals," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2-3), pages 119-142, August.
    4. Lev, B, 1989. "On The Usefulness Of Earnings And Earnings Research - Lessons And Directions From 2 Decades Of Empirical-Research," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27, pages 153-192.
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    5. Pervin K. Shroff, 2002. "The Relation between Aggregate Earnings and Security Returns over Long Intervals," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 19(1), pages 147-164, March.
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