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The Cross Section of Expected Real Estate Returns: Insights from Investment-Based Asset Pricing

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  • Shaun Bond

    (University of Cincinnati)

  • Chen Xue

    (University of Cincinnati)

Abstract

Motivated by investment-based asset pricing, we show that two firm fundamentals, investment and profitability, have substantial predictive power for REIT returns. The return predictability of investment and profitability is not subsumed by conventional models and can be useful for understanding the cross section of expected REIT returns. To illustrate, we construct an investment-based factor model for REITs that consists of a market factor, an investment factor, and a profitability factor. The investment-based model outperforms conventional models in capturing well-known cross-sectional patterns in REIT returns. Our findings suggest that incorporating investment-based asset pricing can be a promising direction for future real estate finance research.

Suggested Citation

  • Shaun Bond & Chen Xue, 2017. "The Cross Section of Expected Real Estate Returns: Insights from Investment-Based Asset Pricing," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 54(3), pages 403-428, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:jrefec:v:54:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s11146-016-9573-0
    DOI: 10.1007/s11146-016-9573-0
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Wikrom Prombutr & Chanwit Phengpis & Ying Zhang, 2023. "Anomalies in U.S. REIT Returns: Evidence for and against the Q-theory," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 26(1), pages 43-71.
    2. Steffen Westermann & Scott J. Niblock & Michael A. Kortt, 2018. "A Review of Corporate Social Responsibility and Real Estate Investment Trust Studies: An Australian Perspective," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 37(1), pages 92-110, March.
    3. Lingxiao Li & Bing Zhu, 2024. "REITs’ Stock Return Volatility: Property Market Risk Versus Equity Market Risk," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 69(3), pages 452-476, October.
    4. Lu Zhang, 2017. "The Investment CAPM," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 23(4), pages 545-603, September.
    5. David C. Ling & Chongyu Wang & Tingyu Zhou, 2022. "Asset productivity, local information diffusion, and commercial real estate returns," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 50(1), pages 89-121, March.
    6. Andrey Pavlov & Eva Steiner & Susan Wachter, 2018. "The Consequences of REIT Index Membership for Return Patterns," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 46(1), pages 210-250, March.
    7. Masud Alam, 2024. "Volatility in U.S. Housing Sector and the REIT Equity Return," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 69(3), pages 505-544, October.
    8. Jianfu Shen, 2021. "Distress Risk and Stock Returns on Equity REITs," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 62(3), pages 455-480, April.
    9. Bing Zhu & Stanimira Milcheva, 2020. "The Pricing of Spatial Linkages in Companies’ Underlying Assets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 61(3), pages 443-475, October.
    10. Jianfu Shen & Eddie C.M. Hui & Kwokyuen Fan, 2021. "The Beta Anomaly in the REIT Market," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 63(3), pages 414-436, October.
    11. Masud Alam, 2021. "Time Varying Risk in U.S. Housing Sector and Real Estate Investment Trusts Equity Return," Papers 2107.10455, arXiv.org.
    12. Cao, Jie & Han, Bing & Song, Linjia & Zhan, Xintong, 2023. "Option price implied information and REIT returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 13-28.
    13. Massimo Guidolin & Manuela Pedio & Dimos Andronoudis, 2019. "How Smart is the Real Estate Smart Beta? Evidence from Optimal Style Factor Strategies for REITs," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 19117, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.

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    REITs; Asset pricing;

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