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Analysing Perceived Downside Risk: the Component Value‐at‐Risk Framework

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  • Winfried G. Hallerbach
  • Albert J. Menkveld

Abstract

Multinational companies face increasing risks arising from external risk factors, e.g. exchange rates, interest rates and commodity prices, which they have learned to hedge using derivatives. However, despite increasing disclosure requirements, a firm's net risk profile may not be transparent to shareholders. We develop the ‘Component Value‐at‐Risk (VaR)’ framework for companies to identify the multi‐dimensional downside risk profile as perceived by shareholders. This framework allows for decomposing downside risk into components that are attributable to each of the underlying risk factors. The firm can compare this perceived VaR, including its composition and dynamics, to an internal VaR based on net exposures as it is known to the company. Any differences may lead to surprises at times of earnings announcements and thus constitute a litigation threat to the firm. It may reduce this information asymmetry through targeted communication efforts.

Suggested Citation

  • Winfried G. Hallerbach & Albert J. Menkveld, 2004. "Analysing Perceived Downside Risk: the Component Value‐at‐Risk Framework," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 10(4), pages 567-591, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:eufman:v:10:y:2004:i:4:p:567-591
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1354-7798.2004.00266.x
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    1. Matthew Pritsker, 2001. "The hidden dangers of historical simulation," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-27, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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    Cited by:

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    2. Andrés García Mirantes & Javier Población & Gregorio Serna, 2012. "The Stochastic Seasonal Behaviour of Natural Gas Prices," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 18(3), pages 410-443, June.
    3. Hu, Xiangling & Motwani, Jaideep G., 2014. "Minimizing downside risks for global sourcing under price-sensitive stochastic demand, exchange rate uncertainties, and supplier capacity constraints," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(PB), pages 398-409.
    4. Lof, Matthijs & Nyberg, Henri, 2024. "Discount rates and cash flows: A local projection approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    5. Wei Sun & Svetlozar Rachev & Frank J. Fabozzi, 2009. "A New Approach for Using Lévy Processes for Determining High‐Frequency Value‐at‐Risk Predictions," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 15(2), pages 340-361, March.

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