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Expectations and Exchange Rate Policy

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  • Michael B. Devereux
  • Charles Engel

Abstract

Both empirical evidence and theoretical discussion have long emphasized the impact of "news" on exchange rates. In most exchange rate models, the exchange rate acts as an asset price, and as such responds to news about future returns on assets. But the exchange rate also plays a role in determining the relative price of non-durable goods when nominal goods prices are sticky. In this paper we argue that these two roles may conflict with one another. If news about future asset returns causes movements in current exchange rates, then when nominal prices are slow to adjust, this may cause changes in current relative goods prices that have no efficiency rationale. In this sense, anticipations of future shocks to fundamentals can cause current exchange rate misalignments. Friedman's (1953) case for unfettered flexible exchange rates is overturned when exchange rates are asset prices. We outline a series of models in which an optimal policy eliminates the effects of news on exchange rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael B. Devereux & Charles Engel, 2006. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Policy," NBER Working Papers 12213, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:12213
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    Cited by:

    1. Teona Shugliashvili, 2023. "The words have power: the impact of news on exchange rates," FFA Working Papers 5.006, Prague University of Economics and Business, revised 31 Jul 2023.
    2. Andrew Filardo & Hans Genberg, 2010. "Monetary Policy Strategies in the Asia and Pacific Region: What Way Forward?," Working Papers id:3139, eSocialSciences.
    3. Roel Beetsma & Massimo Giuliodori, 2010. "The Macroeconomic Costs and Benefits of the EMU and Other Monetary Unions: An Overview of Recent Research," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 48(3), pages 603-641, September.
    4. Jeffrey Frankel, 2007. "On The Rand: Determinants Of The South African Exchange Rate," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 75(3), pages 425-441, September.
    5. Matsumoto, Akito & Cova, Pietro & Pisani, Massimiliano & Rebucci, Alessandro, 2011. "News shocks and asset price volatility in general equilibrium," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 2132-2149.
    6. Michael B. Devereux & Charles Engel, 2009. "Expectations, Monetary Policy, and the Misalignment of Traded Goods Prices," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2007, pages 131-157, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Cedric Tille & Eric van Wincoop, 2009. "Disconnect and Information Content of International Capital Flows: Evidence and Theory," Working Papers 102009, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    8. Jeffrey Frankel & Ben Smit & Federico Sturzenegger, 2008. "Fiscal and monetary policy in a commodity‐based economy1," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 16(4), pages 679-713, October.
    9. Coudert, Virginie & Couharde, Cécile & Grekou, Carl & Mignon, Valérie, 2020. "Heterogeneity within the euro area: New insights into an old story," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 428-444.
    10. Andrew Filardo & Hans Genberg, 2012. "Monetary Policy Strategies in the Asia and Pacific Region: Which Way Forward?," Chapters, in: Masahiro Kawai & Peter J. Morgan & Shinji Takagi (ed.), Monetary and Currency Policy Management in Asia, chapter 3, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    11. Benigno, Pierpaolo, 2009. "Are valuation effects desirable from a global perspective?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 170-180, July.
    12. repec:spt:apfiba:v::y:2018:i::f:8_2_5 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Kumarjit Mandal, 2013. "The Recent Exchange Rate Fluctuations," Foreign Trade Review, , vol. 48(1), pages 137-142, February.
    14. Paul Beaudry & Franck Portier, 2014. "News-Driven Business Cycles: Insights and Challenges," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(4), pages 993-1074, December.
    15. van Wincoop, Eric & Tille, Cédric, 2008. "International Capital Flows under Dispersed Information: Theory and Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 6989, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    16. Ioannis N. Kallianiotis, 2018. "Exchange Rate Expectations," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 8(2), pages 1-5.
    17. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric van Wincoop, 2011. "Modeling Exchange Rates with Incomplete Information," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'économie 11.03, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, Département d’économie.

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    JEL classification:

    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit

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