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Inflation expectations and consumption: Evidence from 1951

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  • Carola Conces Binder
  • Gillian Brunet

Abstract

We use rich microdata from the 1951 Survey of Consumer Finances to study inflation expectations and consumption during the Korean War, in an episode when monetary policy was constrained. We provide the first detailed analysis of consumer inflation expectations from that era. Using survey measures of actual and expected spending on durables, cars, and homes at extensive and intensive margins, we show that the difference between consumption in 1950 and expected consumption in 1951 increases with expected inflation. Effect sizes are modest, even though household balance sheets were healthy and inflation was salient.

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  • Carola Conces Binder & Gillian Brunet, 2022. "Inflation expectations and consumption: Evidence from 1951," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 60(2), pages 954-974, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ecinqu:v:60:y:2022:i:2:p:954-974
    DOI: 10.1111/ecin.13051
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    Cited by:

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    2. Andrade, Philippe & Gautier, Erwan & Mengus, Eric, 2023. "What matters in households’ inflation expectations?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 50-68.
    3. Joshua K. Hausman, 2023. "I Am Still Worried About Inflation," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(1), pages 319-322, January.
    4. An, Zidong & Binder, Carola & Sheng, Xuguang Simon, 2023. "Gas price expectations of Chinese households," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    5. Carola Binder & Rupal Kamdar, 2022. "Expected and Realized Inflation in Historical Perspective," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 36(3), pages 131-156, Summer.

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