IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/ecinqu/v56y2018i1p620-636.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Latin America'S Declining Skill Premium: A Macroeconomic Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Juan F. Guerra‐Salas

Abstract

The decline in Latin America's skill premium and income inequality during the 2000s was partly driven by an economic expansion that favored low‐skill‐intensive service sectors. Evidence shows inequality becomes countercyclical in the 2000s, and unlike previous expansions, the boom was concentrated on services while manufacturing lagged behind. I build an open economy general equilibrium model that features a low‐skill‐intensive nontradable sector. The model suggests that favorable shocks to commodity prices and international interest rate spreads, such as those that buffeted Latin America in the 2000s, account for about a fifth of the observed decline in the skill premium. (JEL D31, E32, F41, O15, O54)

Suggested Citation

  • Juan F. Guerra‐Salas, 2018. "Latin America'S Declining Skill Premium: A Macroeconomic Analysis," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 56(1), pages 620-636, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ecinqu:v:56:y:2018:i:1:p:620-636
    DOI: 10.1111/ecin.12497
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.12497
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/ecin.12497?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Vegh, Carlos A. & Vuletin, Guillermo, 2013. "On graduation from fiscal procyclicality," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(1), pages 32-47.
    2. Per Krusell & Lee E. Ohanian & JosÈ-Victor RÌos-Rull & Giovanni L. Violante, 2000. "Capital-Skill Complementarity and Inequality: A Macroeconomic Analysis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(5), pages 1029-1054, September.
    3. Mendoza, Enrique G, 1995. "The Terms of Trade, the Real Exchange Rate, and Economic Fluctuations," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 36(1), pages 101-137, February.
    4. García-Cicco, Javier & Kawamura, Enrique, 2015. "Dealing with the Dutch disease: Fiscal rules and macro-prudential policies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 205-239.
    5. Maliar Lilia & Maliar Serguei & Mora Juan, 2005. "Income and Wealth Distributions Along the Business Cycle: Implications from the Neoclassical Growth Model," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 5(1), pages 1-28, June.
    6. Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2003. "Closing small open economy models," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 163-185, October.
    7. Louise Cord & Oscar Barriga†Cabanillas & Leonardo Lucchetti & Carlos Rodríguez†Castelán & Liliana D. Sousa & Daniel Valderrama, 2017. "Inequality Stagnation in Latin America in the Aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(1), pages 157-181, February.
    8. Correia, Isabel & Neves, Joao C. & Rebelo, Sergio, 1995. "Business cycles in a small open economy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 1089-1113, June.
    9. Matthew J. Lindquist, 2004. "Capital-Skill Complementarity and Inequality Over the Business Cycle," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 7(3), pages 519-540, July.
    10. Barlevy, Gadi & Tsiddon, Daniel, 2006. "Earnings inequality and the business cycle," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 55-89, January.
    11. Ruy Lama & Juan Pablo Medina, 2012. "Is Exchange Rate Stabilization an Appropriate Cure for the Dutch Disease?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 8(1), pages 5-46, March.
    12. Corden, W M, 1984. "Booming Sector and Dutch Disease Economics: Survey and Consolidation," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 36(3), pages 359-380, November.
    13. Benigno, Gianluca & Converse, Nathan & Fornaro, Luca, 2015. "Large capital inflows, sectoral allocation, and economic performance," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 60-87.
    14. World Bank, "undated". "Social Gains in the Balance : A Fiscal Policy Challenge for Latin America and the Caribbean [Ganancias sociales en la balanza : un desafio de la politica fiscal para América Latina y el Caribe]," World Bank Publications - Reports 17198, The World Bank Group.
    15. John Duffy & Chris Papageorgiou & Fidel Perez-Sebastian, 2004. "Capital-Skill Complementarity? Evidence from a Panel of Countries," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(1), pages 327-344, February.
    16. Stockman, Alan C & Tesar, Linda L, 1995. "Tastes and Technology in a Two-Country Model of the Business Cycle: Explaining International Comovements," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(1), pages 168-185, March.
    17. Pieschacón, Anamaría, 2012. "The value of fiscal discipline for oil-exporting countries," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(3), pages 250-268.
    18. Leeper, Eric M. & Walker, Todd B. & Yang, Shu-Chun S., 2010. "Government investment and fiscal stimulus," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(8), pages 1000-1012, November.
    19. Castaneda, Ana & Diaz-Gimenez, Javier & Rios-Rull, Jose-Victor, 1998. "Exploring the income distribution business cycle dynamics," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 93-130, June.
    20. Andrew Berg & Rafael Portillo & Shu-Chun S Yang & Luis-Felipe Zanna, 2013. "Public Investment in Resource-Abundant Developing Countries," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 61(1), pages 92-129, April.
    21. Kaminsky, Graciela L. & Pereira, Alfredo, 1996. "The debt crisis: lessons of the 1980s for the 1990s," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 1-24, June.
    22. Williamson, Jeffrey G., 2010. "Five centuries of Latin American income inequality," Revista de Historia Económica / Journal of Iberian and Latin American Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 28(2), pages 227-252, September.
    23. Greenwood, Jeremy & Hercowitz, Zvi & Huffman, Gregory W, 1988. "Investment, Capacity Utilization, and the Real Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(3), pages 402-417, June.
    24. van Wijnbergen, Sweder J G, 1984. "The 'Dutch Disease': A Disease after All?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 94(373), pages 41-55, March.
    25. Lim, G. C. & McNelis, Paul D., 2013. "Alternative Government Spending Rules: Effects On Income Inequality And Welfare," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(7), pages 1496-1518, October.
    26. Corden, W Max & Neary, J Peter, 1982. "Booming Sector and De-Industrialisation in a Small Open Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 92(368), pages 825-848, December.
    27. Frederick Solt, 2016. "The Standardized World Income Inequality Database," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 97(5), pages 1267-1281, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Campos-González, Jorge & Balcombe, Kelvin, 2024. "The race between education and technology in Chile and its impact on the skill premium," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Juan Guerra-Salas, 2016. "Fiscal Policy, Sectoral Allocation, and the Skill Premium: Explaining the Decline in Latin America’s Income Inequality," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 779, Central Bank of Chile.
    2. Bodenstein, Martin & Kamber, Güneş & Thoenissen, Christoph, 2018. "Commodity prices and labour market dynamics in small open economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 170-184.
    3. Rodrigo Suescún M., 1997. "Commodity booms,dutch disease,and real business cycles in a small open economy: The case of coffee in Colombia," Borradores de Economia 2164, Banco de la Republica.
    4. Hilde C. Bjørnland & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2013. "Boom or gloom? Examining the Dutch disease in a two-speed economy," Working Papers No 6/2013, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    5. Medina, Juan Pablo & Soto, Claudio, 2016. "Commodity prices and fiscal policy in a commodity exporting economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 335-351.
    6. Jean-Pierre Allegret & Mohamed Tahar Benkhodja, 2014. "The Dutch disease effect in a high versus low oil dependent countries," Post-Print hal-01385965, HAL.
    7. Ruthira Naraidoo & Vo Phuong Mai Le, 2019. "Monetary policy in a model with commodity and financial market," Working Papers 782, Economic Research Southern Africa.
    8. Rodrigo Suescún M., 1997. "Commodity Booms, Dutch Disease, and Real Business Cycles in a Small Economy: The Case of Coffe in Colombia," Borradores de Economia 073, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    9. Edouard Mien & Michaël Goujon, 2022. "40 Years of Dutch Disease Literature: Lessons for Developing Countries," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 64(3), pages 351-383, September.
    10. Stephen McKnight & Laura Povoledo, 2022. "Endogenous fluctuations and international business cycles," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 55(1), pages 312-348, February.
    11. van der Ploeg, Frederick, 2019. "Macro policy responses to natural resource windfalls and the crash in commodity prices," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 263-282.
    12. García-Cicco, Javier & Kawamura, Enrique, 2015. "Dealing with the Dutch disease: Fiscal rules and macro-prudential policies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 205-239.
    13. Martín-Moreno, José M. & Pérez, Rafaela & Ruiz, Jesús, 2014. "A real business cycle model with tradable and non-tradable goods for the Spanish economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 204-212.
    14. Villca, Alfredo, 2022. "Commodity prices, bank balance sheets and macroprudential policies in small open economies," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 3(1).
    15. Mohamed Tahar Benkhodja, 2011. "Monetary Policy and the Dutch Disease in a Small Open Oil Exporting Economy," Working Papers 1134, Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon St-Étienne (GATE Lyon St-Étienne), Université de Lyon.
    16. Yusuf Soner Başkaya & Timur Hülagü & Hande Küçük, 2013. "Oil Price Uncertainty in a Small Open Economy," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 61(1), pages 168-198, April.
    17. Alberola, Enrique & Benigno, Gianluca, 2017. "Revisiting the commodity curse: A financial perspective," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(S1), pages 87-106.
    18. Chen, Kuan-Jen & Chu, Angus C. & Lai, Ching-Chong, 2018. "Home production and small open economy business cycles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 110-135.
    19. Bergholt, Drago & Røisland, Øistein & Sveen, Tommy & Torvik, Ragnar, 2023. "Monetary policy when export revenues drop," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    20. Orrego, Fabrizio & Vega, Germán, 2013. "Dutch disease and fiscal policy," Working Papers 2013-021, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D31 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Personal Income and Wealth Distribution
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
    • O54 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Latin America; Caribbean

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:ecinqu:v:56:y:2018:i:1:p:620-636. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/weaaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.