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Economic Globalization and Inflation in China: A Multivariate Approach

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  • Chengsi Zhang
  • Ke Song
  • Fang Wang

Abstract

This paper evaluates whether globalization has increased the role of global factors in driving inflation in China. Unlike other published studies on the relationship between globalization and inflation, which mostly use Phillips curve models, this paper uses multivariate dynamic models to examine the dynamic interactions between globalization and inflation in China. Empirical results with quarterly data spanning from 1995 to 2012 show that the global output gap significantly affects the dynamics of inflation in China. In particular, the global output gap is superior to the domestic output gap in predicting domestic inflation. Impulse response and variance decomposition analyses reinforce this finding. Our results indicate that the central bank of China should take developments in global output into account in its monetary policy-making process.

Suggested Citation

  • Chengsi Zhang & Ke Song & Fang Wang, 2015. "Economic Globalization and Inflation in China: A Multivariate Approach," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 23(3), pages 79-96, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:chinae:v:23:y:2015:i:3:p:79-96
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Wu, Zhang & Chong, Terence Tai-Leung, 2019. "Price rigidity in China: Empirical results at home and abroad," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 218-235.
    3. Chengsi Zhang & Xingchen Ji & Wensheng Dai, 2017. "Global Output Gap and Domestic Inflation in China," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 64(1), pages 17-30, December.
    4. Konstantakis, Konstantinos N. & Milioti, Christina & Michaelides, Panayotis G., 2017. "Modeling the dynamic response of automobile sales in troubled times: A real-time Vector Autoregressive analysis with causality testing for Greece," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 75-81.
    5. Lei Lv & Zhixin Liu & Yingying Xu, 2019. "Technological progress, globalization and low-inflation: Evidence from the United States," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(4), pages 1-19, April.
    6. Yang, Changjiang & Yan, Xiaoxuan, 2023. "Impact of carbon tariffs on price competitiveness in the era of global value chain," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 336(C).
    7. de Mendonça, Helder Ferreira & Nascimento, Natalia Cunha, 2020. "Monetary policy efficiency and macroeconomic stability: Do financial openness and economic globalization matter?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    8. Abdul Wahid & Muhammad Zubair Mumtaz, 2018. "The Paradigm Shift in the Pakistan Stock Exchange’s Financial Integration Post-FTA and CPEC," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 23(1), pages 21-50, Jan-June.

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