IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/chinae/v23y2015i1p101-120.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Vanishing of China's Twin Surpluses and Its Policy Implications

Author

Listed:
  • Ming Zhang
  • Xiaofen Tan

Abstract

This paper argues that the twin surpluses in China's balance of payments will disappear in the future as a result of external and internal structural changes. China's current account surplus will diminish as a result of the decline in the goods trade surplus, the expanding service trade deficit and negative investment income. China's capital account might shift from surplus to deficit as a result of shrinking net direct investment inflows and more volatile short-term capital flows. When the twin surpluses no longer exist, the normalization of the US treasury bond yields will be sped up, terminating the one-way appreciation of the RMB exchange rate; the People's Bank of China's pressure to sterilize inflows will be alleviated, and new problems for the People's Bank of China's monetary operation will emerge; new financial vulnerabilities for the Chinese economy will arise. Finally, the present paper provides some policy suggestions for the Chinese Government to deal with the declining twin surpluses.

Suggested Citation

  • Ming Zhang & Xiaofen Tan, 2015. "Vanishing of China's Twin Surpluses and Its Policy Implications," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 23(1), pages 101-120, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:chinae:v:23:y:2015:i:1:p:101-120
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/cwe.12101
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Yiping Huang & Bijun Wang, 2011. "Chinese Outward Direct Investment: Is There a China Model?," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 19(4), pages 1-21, July.
    2. Mr. Ashvin Ahuja & Mr. Nigel A Chalk & Mr. Nathan Porter & Mr. Papa M N'Diaye & Mr. Malhar S Nabar, 2012. "An End to China’s Imbalances?," IMF Working Papers 2012/100, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Ming Zhang, 2012. "Chinese Stylized Sterilization: The Cost‐sharing Mechanism and Financial Repression," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 20(2), pages 41-58, March.
    4. Mr. Tamim Bayoumi & Ms. Franziska L Ohnsorge, 2013. "Do Inflows or Outflows Dominate? Global Implications of Capital Account Liberalization in China," IMF Working Papers 2013/189, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Ichiro Otani & Tomoyuki Fukumoto & Yosuke Tsuyuguchi, 2011. "China's Capital Controls and Interest Rate Parity: Experience during 1999 - 2010 and Future Agenda for Reforms," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 11-E-8, Bank of Japan.
    6. Calista Cheung & Davide Furceri & Elena Rusticelli, 2013. "Structural and Cyclical Factors behind Current Account Balances," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(5), pages 923-944, November.
    7. Yiping Huang & Bijun Wang, 2013. "Investing Overseas Without Moving Factories Abroad: The Case of Chinese Outward Direct Investment," Asian Development Review, MIT Press, vol. 30(1), pages 85-107, March.
    8. Philip R. Lane & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2015. "Global Imbalances and External Adjustment After the Crisis," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Claudio Raddatz & Diego Saravia & Jaume Ventura (ed.),Global Liquidity, Spillovers to Emerging Markets and Policy Responses, edition 1, volume 20, chapter 4, pages 105-142, Central Bank of Chile.
    9. Luke Deer & Ligang Song, 2013. "International Financial Adjustment for China: A Financial Valuation Approach," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 21(1), pages 1-25, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Francesco Macheda, 2020. "Il ruolo delle imprese a conduzione statale nella lotta della Cina contro il COVID-19 (The role of State-Owned Enterprises in China's fight against the coronavirus disease)," Moneta e Credito, Economia civile, vol. 73(290), pages 111-139.
    2. Jianwei Xu & Panpan Yang & Guangrong Ma, 2021. "Why Has China's Current Account Balance Converged after the Global Financial Crisis?," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 29(1), pages 109-129, January.
    3. Liu, Tie-Ying & Lin, Ye, 2024. "Who has mastered exchange rate ups and downs: China or the United States?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bastian Gawellek & Jingjing Lyu & Bernd Süssmuth, 2016. "Did Chinese Outward Activity Attenuate or Aggravate the Great Recession in Developing Countries?," CESifo Working Paper Series 5735, CESifo.
    2. Bergant, Katharina, 2021. "The role of stock-flow adjustment during the global financial crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    3. Katharina Bergant, 2017. "The Role of Stock-Flow Adjustment during the Global Financial Crisis," Trinity Economics Papers tep1317, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
    4. Süssmuth, Bernd & Gawellek, Bastian & Lyu, Jingjing, 2015. "Did Chinese Outward Activity Attenuate or Aggravate the Great Recession in Developing Countries?," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 112994, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    5. Degong Ma & Chun Lei & Farid Ullah & Raza Ullah & Qadar Bakhsh Baloch, 2019. "China’s One Belt and One Road Initiative and Outward Chinese Foreign Direct Investment in Europe," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(24), pages 1-13, December.
    6. Gawellek, Bastian & Lyu, Jingjing & Süssmuth, Bernd, 2021. "Geo-politics and the impact of China's outward investment on developing countries: evidence from the Great Recession," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
    7. Joaquín Bernal-Ramírez & Jair Ojeda-Joya & Camila Agudelo-Rivera & Felipe Clavijo-Ramírez & Carolina Durana-Ángel & Clark Granger-Castaño & Daniel Osorio-Rodríguez & Daniel Parra-Amado & José Pulido &, 2022. "Impacto macroeconómico del cambio climático en Colombia," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, issue 102, pages 1-62, July.
    8. Akhtaruzzaman, Muhammad & Berg, Nathan & Lien, Donald, 2017. "Confucius Institutes and FDI flows from China to Africa," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 241-252.
    9. Mary Amiti & Patrick McGuire & David E. Weinstein, 2017. "Supply- and Demand-side Factors in Global Banking," NBER Working Papers 23536, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Agnes Benassy-Quere, 2016. "Euro-Area Fiscal Stance: From Theory to Practical Implementation," CESifo Working Paper Series 6040, CESifo.
    11. He, Dong & Luk, Paul, 2017. "A Model Of Chinese Capital Account Liberalization," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(8), pages 1902-1934, December.
    12. Dmitry Alexandrovich Izotov, 2012. "The Foreign Trade of Domestic and External Sectors of the Chinese Economy," Spatial Economics=Prostranstvennaya Ekonomika, Economic Research Institute, Far Eastern Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences (Khabarovsk, Russia), issue 4, pages 49-66.
    13. Mahmoud Mohieldin & Ahmed Rostom & Chahir Zaki, 2021. "The external wealth of Arab nations: Structure, trends, and policy implications," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 50(2), July.
    14. Clovis Kerdrain & Isabell Koske & Isabelle Wanner, 2011. "Current Account Imbalances: can Structural Reforms Help to Reduce Them?," OECD Journal: Economic Studies, OECD Publishing, vol. 2011(1), pages 1-44.
    15. Friesenbichler, Klaus S. & Glocker, Christian, 2019. "Tradability and productivity growth differentials across EU Member States," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 1-13.
    16. Quan Dong & Juan Carlos Bárcena-Ruiz, 2021. "Cross-border acquisitions from developing countries under decreasing returns to scale," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 20(3), pages 297-317, September.
    17. Pasricha, Gurnain Kaur & Falagiarda, Matteo & Bijsterbosch, Martin & Aizenman, Joshua, 2018. "Domestic and multilateral effects of capital controls in emerging markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 48-58.
    18. Diao, Mi, 2018. "Does growth follow the rail? The potential impact of high-speed rail on the economic geography of China," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 279-290.
    19. Lane, Philip, 2015. "Macro-Financial Stability under EMU," CEPR Discussion Papers 10776, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    20. Murat Cetrez & Yasin Baris Altayligil, 2022. "The Role of Macroeconomic Stability in Current Account Balances," Istanbul Journal of Economics-Istanbul Iktisat Dergisi, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 72(72-2), pages 569-597, December.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:chinae:v:23:y:2015:i:1:p:101-120. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iwepacn.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.