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An End to China’s Imbalances?

Author

Listed:
  • Mr. Ashvin Ahuja
  • Mr. Nigel A Chalk
  • Mr. Nathan Porter
  • Mr. Papa M N'Diaye
  • Mr. Malhar S Nabar

Abstract

Global imbalances have been a central theme of the international economic policy debate for much of the last decade, prompted by large and sustained current account deficits in the U.S. and counterpart surpluses in China, Germany, and among many of the oil producers. This paper focuses on the current state of the external imbalance in China, examining the factors underlying the post-2008 drop in China’s current account surplus and analyzing the prospects for the external surplus going forward. The paper finds that China’s current account surplus should remain modest in the coming years. However, despite the fact that China’s medium-term current account is likely to stay below its pre-crisis range, it is too early to conclude that "rebalancing" has been truly achieved in China. While imbalances do not currently seem to be manifesting themselves as a feature of China’s external accounts, the evidence increasingly points to a rising domestic imbalance as growth becomes increasingly dependent on very high levels of investment.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Ashvin Ahuja & Mr. Nigel A Chalk & Mr. Nathan Porter & Mr. Papa M N'Diaye & Mr. Malhar S Nabar, 2012. "An End to China’s Imbalances?," IMF Working Papers 2012/100, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2012/100
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Kim, Soyoung & Lee, Jaewoo, 2015. "Imbalances over the Pacific," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 173-185.
    2. Ludovic Gauvin & Cyril C. Rebillard, 2018. "Towards recoupling? Assessing the global impact of a Chinese hard landing through trade and commodity price channels," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(12), pages 3379-3415, December.
    3. Gauvin, Ludovic & Rebillard, Cyril, 2013. "Towards Recoupling? Assessing the Impact of a Chinese Hard Landing on Commodity Exporters: Results from Conditional Forecast in a GVAR Model," MPRA Paper 65457, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Dmitry Alexandrovich Izotov, 2012. "The Foreign Trade of Domestic and External Sectors of the Chinese Economy," Spatial Economics=Prostranstvennaya Ekonomika, Economic Research Institute, Far Eastern Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences (Khabarovsk, Russia), issue 4, pages 49-66.
    5. Diao, Mi, 2018. "Does growth follow the rail? The potential impact of high-speed rail on the economic geography of China," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 279-290.
    6. Thorbecke, Willem, 2019. "Why Japan lost its comparative advantage in producing electronic parts and components," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    7. Gozgor, Giray, 2014. "Aggregated and disaggregated import demand in China: An empirical study," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 1-8.
    8. Thorbecke, Willem, 2016. "Understanding Chinese consumption goods imports," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 96-102.
    9. Ming Zhang & Xiaofen Tan, 2015. "Vanishing of China's Twin Surpluses and Its Policy Implications," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 23(1), pages 101-120, January.
    10. Dmitriy Izotov, 2013. "Zones with China's concessional regime: spatial concentration and foreign trade contribution," Economy of region, Centre for Economic Security, Institute of Economics of Ural Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, vol. 1(1), pages 123-132.
    11. Idrisov, Georgy & Ponomarev, Yury & Sinelnikov-Murylev, Sergey, 2016. "Terms of trade and Russian economic development," Russian Journal of Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 279-301.
    12. Fall, Moussa K., 2019. "To what extent real exchange rate appreciation contributed to the shrinking of China's trade surpluses following the global financial crises?," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(3), pages 235-242.

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