IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/biomet/v79y2023i3p2525-2536.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Age‐related model for estimating the symptomatic and asymptomatic transmissibility of COVID‐19 patients

Author

Listed:
  • Jianbin Tan
  • Ye Shen
  • Yang Ge
  • Leonardo Martinez
  • Hui Huang

Abstract

Estimation of age‐dependent transmissibility of COVID‐19 patients is critical for effective policymaking. Although the transmissibility of symptomatic cases has been extensively studied, asymptomatic infection is understudied due to limited data. Using a dataset with reliably distinguished symptomatic and asymptomatic statuses of COVID‐19 cases, we propose an ordinary differential equation model that considers age‐dependent transmissibility in transmission dynamics. Under a Bayesian framework, multi‐source information is synthesized in our model for identifying transmissibility. A shrinkage prior among age groups is also adopted to improve the estimation behavior of transmissibility from age‐structured data. The added values of accounting for age‐dependent transmissibility are further evaluated through simulation studies. In real‐data analysis, we compare our approach with two basic models using the deviance information criterion (DIC) and its extension. We find that the proposed model is more flexible for our epidemic data. Our results also suggest that the transmissibility of asymptomatic infections is significantly lower (on average, 76.45% with a credible interval (27.38%, 88.65%)) than that of symptomatic cases. In both symptomatic and asymptomatic patients, the transmissibility mainly increases with age. Patients older than 30 years are more likely to develop symptoms with higher transmissibility. We also find that the transmission burden of asymptomatic cases is lower than that of symptomatic patients.

Suggested Citation

  • Jianbin Tan & Ye Shen & Yang Ge & Leonardo Martinez & Hui Huang, 2023. "Age‐related model for estimating the symptomatic and asymptomatic transmissibility of COVID‐19 patients," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 79(3), pages 2525-2536, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:biomet:v:79:y:2023:i:3:p:2525-2536
    DOI: 10.1111/biom.13814
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/biom.13814
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/biom.13814?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Frasso, Gianluca & Lambert, Philippe, 2016. "Bayesian inference in an extended SEIR model with nonparametric disease transmission rate: an application to the Ebola epidemic in Sierra Leone," LIDAM Reprints ISBA 2016031, Université catholique de Louvain, Institute of Statistics, Biostatistics and Actuarial Sciences (ISBA).
    2. Phenyo E. Lekone & Bärbel F. Finkenstädt, 2006. "Statistical Inference in a Stochastic Epidemic SEIR Model with Control Intervention: Ebola as a Case Study," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 62(4), pages 1170-1177, December.
    3. Soetaert, Karline & Petzoldt, Thomas & Setzer, R. Woodrow, 2010. "Solving Differential Equations in R: Package deSolve," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 33(i09).
    4. Vanja Dukic & Hedibert F. Lopes & Nicholas G. Polson, 2012. "Tracking Epidemics With Google Flu Trends Data and a State-Space SEIR Model," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 107(500), pages 1410-1426, December.
    5. David J. Spiegelhalter & Nicola G. Best & Bradley P. Carlin & Angelika Linde, 2014. "The deviance information criterion: 12 years on," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 76(3), pages 485-493, June.
    6. David J. Spiegelhalter & Nicola G. Best & Bradley P. Carlin & Angelika Van Der Linde, 2002. "Bayesian measures of model complexity and fit," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 64(4), pages 583-639, October.
    7. Ting Tian & Jianbin Tan & Wenxiang Luo & Yukang Jiang & Minqiong Chen & Songpan Yang & Canhong Wen & Wenliang Pan & Xueqin Wang, 2021. "The Effects of Stringent and Mild Interventions for Coronavirus Pandemic," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 116(534), pages 481-491, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lu Tang & Yiwang Zhou & Lili Wang & Soumik Purkayastha & Leyao Zhang & Jie He & Fei Wang & Peter X.‐K. Song, 2020. "A Review of Multi‐Compartment Infectious Disease Models," International Statistical Review, International Statistical Institute, vol. 88(2), pages 462-513, August.
    2. Dimitris Korobilis & Kenichi Shimizu, 2022. "Bayesian Approaches to Shrinkage and Sparse Estimation," Foundations and Trends(R) in Econometrics, now publishers, vol. 11(4), pages 230-354, June.
    3. Kai Yang & Qingqing Zhang & Xinyang Yu & Xiaogang Dong, 2023. "Bayesian inference for a mixture double autoregressive model," Statistica Neerlandica, Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research, vol. 77(2), pages 188-207, May.
    4. Kelvyn Jones & David Manley & Ron Johnston & Dewi Owen, 2018. "Modelling residential segregation as unevenness and clustering: A multilevel modelling approach incorporating spatial dependence and tackling the MAUP," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 45(6), pages 1122-1141, November.
    5. Papastamoulis, Panagiotis, 2018. "Overfitting Bayesian mixtures of factor analyzers with an unknown number of components," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 220-234.
    6. Voleti, Sudhir & Srinivasan, V. & Ghosh, Pulak, 2017. "An approach to improve the predictive power of choice-based conjoint analysis," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 325-335.
    7. Arnab Kumar Maity & Sanjib Basu & Santu Ghosh, 2021. "Bayesian criterion‐based variable selection," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 70(4), pages 835-857, August.
    8. Shuhui Guo & Lihua Xiong & Jie Chen & Shenglian Guo & Jun Xia & Ling Zeng & Chong-Yu Xu, 2023. "Nonstationary Regional Flood Frequency Analysis Based on the Bayesian Method," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(2), pages 659-681, January.
    9. Chen, Yunxiao & Lu, Yan & Moustaki, Irini, 2022. "Detection of two-way outliers in multivariate data and application to cheating detection in educational tests," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 112499, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    10. Bresson Georges & Chaturvedi Anoop & Rahman Mohammad Arshad & Shalabh, 2021. "Seemingly unrelated regression with measurement error: estimation via Markov Chain Monte Carlo and mean field variational Bayes approximation," The International Journal of Biostatistics, De Gruyter, vol. 17(1), pages 75-97, May.
    11. Cici Bauer & Jon Wakefield, 2018. "Stratified space–time infectious disease modelling, with an application to hand, foot and mouth disease in China," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 67(5), pages 1379-1398, November.
    12. Roy Costilla & Ivy Liu & Richard Arnold & Daniel Fernández, 2019. "Bayesian model-based clustering for longitudinal ordinal data," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 34(3), pages 1015-1038, September.
    13. Palamara, Gian Marco & Dennis, Stuart R. & Haenggi, Corinne & Schuwirth, Nele & Reichert, Peter, 2022. "Investigating the effect of pesticides on Daphnia population dynamics by inferring structure and parameters of a stochastic model," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 472(C).
    14. Leigh Fisher & Jon Wakefield & Cici Bauer & Steve Self, 2017. "Time series modeling of pathogen-specific disease probabilities with subsampled data," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 73(1), pages 283-293, March.
    15. Hazelton, Martin L. & Parry, Katharina, 2016. "Statistical methods for comparison of day-to-day traffic models," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 92(PA), pages 22-34.
    16. Muhammed Semakula & Franco̧is Niragire & Christel Faes, 2020. "Bayesian spatio-temporal modeling of malaria risk in Rwanda," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(9), pages 1-16, September.
    17. Fabian Krüger & Sebastian Lerch & Thordis Thorarinsdottir & Tilmann Gneiting, 2021. "Predictive Inference Based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo Output," International Statistical Review, International Statistical Institute, vol. 89(2), pages 274-301, August.
    18. Li, Yong & Yu, Jun & Zeng, Tao, 2018. "Integrated Deviance Information Criterion for Latent Variable Models," Economics and Statistics Working Papers 6-2018, Singapore Management University, School of Economics.
    19. Briana J. K. Stephenson & Amy H. Herring & Andrew F. Olshan, 2022. "Derivation of maternal dietary patterns accounting for regional heterogeneity," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 71(5), pages 1957-1977, November.
    20. Yang, Kai & Yu, Xinyang & Zhang, Qingqing & Dong, Xiaogang, 2022. "On MCMC sampling in self-exciting integer-valued threshold time series models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:biomet:v:79:y:2023:i:3:p:2525-2536. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0006-341X .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.