IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ecm/ausm04/66.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Housing Affordability Options for First Home Owner-Occupiers in Australia: A Simulation Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Ross Guest

Abstract

This paper presents a simulation analysis of several policies, or policy proposals, for improving housing affordability for first home owner-occupiers in Australia: the First Home Owner Grant, housing equity partnerships and deposit loans. The focus is on the impact of these measures for housing demand, the private saving rate and house prices. The simulations apply a housing tenure choice model in which a representative adult household makes a lifetime plan concerning when to buy and sell a house, and the amount of housing and non-housing consumption over its adult lifetime. An insight from the lifecycle framework is that policies to improve housing affordability can have two effects on housing demand and house prices: a life-cycle timing effect and a liquidity effect; and it is possible that these effects will work in opposite directions on housing demand and therefore house pric

Suggested Citation

  • Ross Guest, 2004. "Housing Affordability Options for First Home Owner-Occupiers in Australia: A Simulation Analysis," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 66, Econometric Society.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecm:ausm04:66
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://repec.org/esAUSM04/up.15017.1076560448.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. VanderHart, Peter G., 1998. "The Housing Decisions of Older Households: A Dynamic Analysis," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 21-48, March.
    2. Mankiw, N. Gregory & Weil, David N., 1989. "The baby boom, the baby bust, and the housing market," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 235-258, May.
    3. Charles Littrell, 1999. "Australian Investment Income Taxation: The Worst Of All Worlds?," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 18(2), pages 49-60, June.
    4. James M. Poterba, 1984. "Tax Subsidies to Owner-Occupied Housing: An Asset-Market Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 99(4), pages 729-752.
    5. James Alm & James R. Follain Jr., 1982. "Alternative Mortgage Instruments: Their Effects On Consumer Housing Choices in an Inflationary Environment," Public Finance Review, , vol. 10(2), pages 134-157, April.
    6. Ermisch, John F. & Jenkins, Stephen P., 1999. "Retirement and housing adjustment in later life: evidence from the British Household Panel Survey," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 311-333, June.
    7. Hayashi, Fumio & Ito, Takatoshi & Slemrod, Joel, 1988. "Housing finance imperfections, taxation, and private saving: A comparative simulation analysis of the United States and Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 215-238, September.
    8. John Freebairn, 1999. "Tax Reform Proposals And Housing," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 18(3), pages 73-84, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ross S. Guest, 2005. "A Life Cycle Analysis of Housing Affordability Options for First Home Owner‐Occupiers in Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 81(254), pages 237-248, September.
    2. Ross Guest & Robyn Swift, 2010. "Population Ageing and House Prices in Australia," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 43(3), pages 240-253, September.
    3. Jonathan S. Skinner, 1994. "Housing and Saving in the United States," NBER Chapters, in: Housing Markets in the United States and Japan, pages 191-214, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Okumura, Tsunao, 1997. "Housing Investment and Residential Land Supply in Japan: An Asset Market Approach," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 27-54, March.
    5. Ayuso, Juan & Restoy, Fernando, 2007. "House prices and rents in Spain: Does the discount factor matter?," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3-4), pages 291-308, November.
    6. L. Rachel Ngai & Silvana Tenreyro, 2014. "Hot and Cold Seasons in the Housing Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(12), pages 3991-4026, December.
    7. Visar Hoxha & Alenka Temeljotov Salaj, 2014. "Fundamental Economic Factors That Affect Housing Prices: Comparative Analysis between Kosovo and Slovenia," Management, University of Primorska, Faculty of Management Koper, vol. 9(4), pages 323-348.
    8. Basant Kapur, 2006. "Financial liberalization and short-run housing price dynamics," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 29(3), pages 649-675, November.
    9. Goodman, Allen C. & Thibodeau, Thomas G., 2008. "Where are the speculative bubbles in US housing markets?," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 117-137, June.
    10. A Börsch-Supan & A Brugiavini, 2001. "Savings: the policy debate in Europe," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 17(1), pages 116-143, Spring.
    11. David Miles, 2012. "Population Density, House Prices and Mortgage Design," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 59(5), pages 444-466, November.
    12. Keuschnigg, Christian & Nielsen, Soren Bo, 1996. "Housing markets and vacant land," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 20(9-10), pages 1731-1762.
    13. Englund, Peter & Ioannides, Yannis M., 1997. "House Price Dynamics: An International Empirical Perspective," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 119-136, June.
    14. Skinner, Jonathan, 1996. "The dynamic efficiency cost of not taxing housing," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(3), pages 397-417, March.
    15. Davis, Morris A. & Heathcote, Jonathan, 2007. "The price and quantity of residential land in the United States," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(8), pages 2595-2620, November.
    16. Christophe Blot, 2006. "Peut-on parler de bulle sur le marché immobilier au Luxembourg ?," BCL working papers 20, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    17. Kenny, Geoff, 1998. "The Housing Market and the Macroeconomy: Evidence From Ireland," Research Technical Papers 1/RT/98, Central Bank of Ireland.
    18. Laurence S. Seidman & Kenneth A. Lewis, 1997. "The Design of a Tax Rule for Owner-Occuped Housing Under a Personal Consumption Tax," Public Finance Review, , vol. 25(1), pages 5-24, January.
    19. Sun Wei & Triest Robert K. & Webb Anthony, 2008. "Optimal Retirement Asset Decumulation Strategies: The Impact of Housing Wealth," Asia-Pacific Journal of Risk and Insurance, De Gruyter, vol. 3(1), pages 1-29, September.
    20. Shimizu, Chihiro & Deng, Yongheng & Kawamura, Yasuhito & Nishimura, Kiyohiko, 2016. "Analysis of policy options to address Japan's declining population, shrinking birthrate, and aging society," HIT-REFINED Working Paper Series 33, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Housing economics; household saving;

    JEL classification:

    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand
    • D13 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Production and Intrahouse Allocation

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ecm:ausm04:66. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Christopher F. Baum (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/essssea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.