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Futures Prices As Forecasts Of Commodity Spot Prices: Live Cattle And Wool

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  • David E. A. Giles
  • Barry A. Goss

Abstract

In this paper the foundations on which the predictive interpretation of futures prices rests are discussed, and possible reasons for the differential predictive performance of futures prices as between different commodity markets examined. The predictive performances of futures, and spot prices themselves, are tested empirically, using Australian data for wool (a continuous inventory commodity) and finished live beef cattle (virtually a non-storable commodity), by means of instrumental variables estimation.
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  • David E. A. Giles & Barry A. Goss, 1981. "Futures Prices As Forecasts Of Commodity Spot Prices: Live Cattle And Wool," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 25(1), pages 1-13, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ajarec:v:25:y:1981:i:1:p:1-13
    DOI: j.1467-8489.1981.tb00380.x
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    1. Gray, Roger W., 1972. "The Futures Market for Maine Potatoes: An Appraisal," Food Research Institute Studies, Stanford University, Food Research Institute, vol. 11(3), pages 1-29.
    2. Brian S. Fisher & Carolyn Tanner, 1978. "In Search Of Hunt'S Short‐Run Price Cycles In The Sydney Wool Futures Market," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 22(2-3), pages 129-134, 08-12.
    3. Rutledge, David J.S., 1972. "Hedgers' Demand for Futures Contracts: A Theoretical Framework with Applications to the United States Soybean Complex," Food Research Institute Studies, Stanford University, Food Research Institute, vol. 11(3), pages 1-20.
    4. Fisher, Brian S. & Tanner, Carolyn, 1978. "In Search Of Hunt'S Short-Run Price Cycles In The Sydney Wool Futures Market," Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 22(2-3), pages 1-6, August.
    5. Ederington, Louis H, 1979. "The Hedging Performance of the New Futures Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 34(1), pages 157-170, March.
    6. William G. Tomek & Roger W. Gray, 1970. "Temporal Relationships Among Prices on Commodity Futures Markets: Their Allocative and Stabilizing Roles," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 52(3), pages 372-380.
    7. Cargill, Thomas F & Rausser, Gordon C, 1975. "Temporal Price Behavior in Commodity Futures Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 30(4), pages 1043-1053, September.
    8. Hamburger, Michael J & Platt, Elliott N, 1975. "The Expectations Hypothesis and the Efficiency of the Treasury Bill Market," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 57(2), pages 190-199, May.
    9. Dusak, Katherine, 1973. "Futures Trading and Investor Returns: An Investigation of Commodity Market Risk Premiums," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(6), pages 1387-1406, Nov.-Dec..
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    Cited by:

    1. Blank, Steven C., 1984. "Cross Hedging Australian Cattle," Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 28(2-3), pages 1-10, August.
    2. Garcia, Philip & Hudson, Michael A. & Waller, Mark L., 1988. "The Pricing Efficiency Of Agricultural Futures Markets: An Analysis Of Previous Research Results," Southern Journal of Agricultural Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 20(1), pages 1-12, July.
    3. Unknown, 1990. "Structural Change in Livestock: Causes, Implications, Alternatives," Research Institute on Livestock Pricing 232728, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics.
    4. Fisher, Brian S., 1985. "Frontiers in Agricultural Policy Research," Review of Marketing and Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 53(02), pages 1-11, August.
    5. Loy, Jens-Peter, 2002. "Relative Forecasting and Hedging Efficiency of Agricultural Futures Markets in the European Union: Evidence for Slaughter Hog Contracts," 2002 International Congress, August 28-31, 2002, Zaragoza, Spain 24849, European Association of Agricultural Economists.

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