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The Case For And Components Of A Probabilistic Agricultural Outlook Program

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  • Nelson, A. Gene

Abstract

An operational program to develop and disseminate probabilistic outlook information for agricultural commodities would allow decision makers to better comprehend the degree of uncertainty associated with future prices. While there are psychological limitations to the estimation or probabilities, this is a skill that can be taught and developed, particularly among experienced forecasters such as outlook specialists. Techniques are available for eliciting probabilities, and weather forecasting experience demonstrates that experts can quantify probabilities in a reliable manner. The components of a program to develop and disseminate outlook probabilities should include a survey of user needs, training programs for participating outlook specialists, and user educational programs. Further research is needed to develop elicitation techniques, and to evaluate costs and benefits.

Suggested Citation

  • Nelson, A. Gene, 1980. "The Case For And Components Of A Probabilistic Agricultural Outlook Program," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 5(2), pages 1-10, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:wjagec:32393
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.32393
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Nelson, A. Gene, 1997. "Teaching Agricultural Producers to Consider Risk in Decision Making," 1997 Annual Meeting, July 13-16, 1997, Reno\ Sparks, Nevada 35835, Western Agricultural Economics Association.
    2. Rister, M. Edward & Skees, Jerry R., 1982. "The Value Of Outlook Information In Post-Harvest Marketing Strategies," 1982 Annual Meeting, August 1-4, Logan, Utah 279431, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    3. Riley, John Michael & Anderson, John D., 2009. "Producer Perceptions of Corn, Soybean and Cotton Price Risk," 2009 Annual Meeting, January 31-February 3, 2009, Atlanta, Georgia 46865, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    4. Ferris, John N., 2010. "The USDA/Land Grant Extension Outlook Program -- A History and Assessment," 2010 Annual Meeting, July 25-27, 2010, Denver, Colorado 101723, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.

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