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Linking risk preferences and risk perceptions of climate change: A prospect theory approach

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  • Alexis H. Villacis
  • Jeffrey R. Alwang
  • Victor Barrera

Abstract

This article explores how farmer risk preferences are related to their perception of risk of climate change. We measure risk preferences and risk perceptions using a survey and a lab‐in‐the‐field experiment conducted with one of the most vulnerable groups to climate change in Latin America. We find that farmers that behave in accordance with the assumptions of Prospect Theory —a paradigm where risk preferences are characterized by risk aversion, loss aversion, and probability distortion—are more likely to perceive greater risks of climate change. Our results contribute to the understanding of farmer behavior in developing countries. Moreover, since perception of a risk is a necessary prerequisite for deciding on actions to adapt to climate risk, the results have important policy implications for the development and adoption of new technologies aimed at mitigating the effects of climate change (climate‐smart agricultural technologies).

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  • Alexis H. Villacis & Jeffrey R. Alwang & Victor Barrera, 2021. "Linking risk preferences and risk perceptions of climate change: A prospect theory approach," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 52(5), pages 863-877, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:agecon:v:52:y:2021:i:5:p:863-877
    DOI: 10.1111/agec.12659
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    5. Robert Finger & Viviana Garcia & Chloe McCallum & Jens Rommel, 2024. "A note on European farmers' preferences under cumulative prospect theory," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 75(1), pages 465-472, February.
    6. Jens Rommel & Julian Sagebiel & Marieke Cornelia Baaken & Jesús Barreiro-Hurlé & Douadia Bougherara & Luigi Cembalo & Marija Cerjak & Tajana Čop & Mikołaj Czajkowski & María Espinosa-Goded & Julia Höh, 2022. "Farmers' risk preferences in eleven European farming systems: A multi-country replication of Bocquého et al. (2014)," Working Papers 2022-24, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
    7. Villacis, Alexis H., 2023. "Inconsistent choices over prospect theory lottery games: Evidence from field experiments," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    8. Feyisa, Ashenafi Duguma & Maertens, Miet & de Mey, Yann, 2023. "Relating risk preferences and risk perceptions over different agricultural risk domains: Insights from Ethiopia," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).

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