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Can smallholder farmers adapt to climate variability, and how effective are policy interventions? Agent-based simulation results for Ethiopia

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  • Thomas Berger
  • Christian Troost
  • Tesfamicheal Wossen
  • Evgeny Latynskiy
  • Kindie Tesfaye
  • Sika Gbegbelegbe

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  • Thomas Berger & Christian Troost & Tesfamicheal Wossen & Evgeny Latynskiy & Kindie Tesfaye & Sika Gbegbelegbe, 2017. "Can smallholder farmers adapt to climate variability, and how effective are policy interventions? Agent-based simulation results for Ethiopia," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 48(6), pages 693-706, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:agecon:v:48:y:2017:i:6:p:693-706
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    1. Quang, Dang Viet & Schreinemachers, Pepijn & Berger, Thomas, 2014. "Ex-ante assessment of soil conservation methods in the uplands of Vietnam: An agent-based modeling approach," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 108-119.
    2. Salvatore Di Falco & Marcella Veronesi, 2014. "Managing Environmental Risk in Presence of Climate Change: The Role of Adaptation in the Nile Basin of Ethiopia," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 57(4), pages 553-577, April.
    3. Block, Paul J. & Strzepek, Kenneth & Rosegrant, Mark & Diao, Xinshen, 2008. "How can African agriculture adapt to climate change: Impacts of considering climate variability on investment decisions in Ethiopia," Research briefs 15(12), International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    4. Hailemariam Teklewold & Menale Kassie & Bekele Shiferaw, 2013. "Adoption of Multiple Sustainable Agricultural Practices in Rural Ethiopia," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 64(3), pages 597-623, September.
    5. Paul J. Block & Kenneth Strzepek & Mark W. Rosegrant & Xinshen Diao, 2008. "Impacts of considering climate variability on investment decisions in Ethiopia," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 39(2), pages 171-181, September.
    6. Yonas Alem & Mintewab Bezabih & Menale Kassie & Precious Zikhali, 2010. "Does fertilizer use respond to rainfall variability? Panel data evidence from Ethiopia," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 41(2), pages 165-175, March.
    7. Salvatore Falco & Marcella Veronesi, 2018. "Managing Environmental Risk in Presence of Climate Change: The Role of Adaptation in the Nile Basin of Ethiopia," Natural Resource Management and Policy, in: Leslie Lipper & Nancy McCarthy & David Zilberman & Solomon Asfaw & Giacomo Branca (ed.), Climate Smart Agriculture, pages 497-526, Springer.
    8. Spielman, David J. & Mekonnen, Dawit Kelemework & Alemu, Dawit, 2012. "Seed, fertilizer, and agricultural extension in Ethiopia," IFPRI book chapters, in: Dorosh, Paul A. & Rashid, Shahidur (ed.), Food and agriculture in Ethiopia: Progress and policy challenges, chapter 4, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    9. Tesfamicheal Wossen & Thomas Berger & Salvatore Di Falco, 2015. "Social capital, risk preference and adoption of improved farm land management practices in Ethiopia," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 46(1), pages 81-97, January.
    10. Pepijn Schreinemachers & Chakrit Potchanasin & Thomas Berger & Sithidech Roygrong, 2010. "Agent‐based modeling for ex ante assessment of tree crop innovations: litchis in northern Thailand," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 41(6), pages 519-536, November.
    11. repec:fpr:resbrf:15(12 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Block, Paul J. & Strzepek, Kenneth & Rosegrant, Mark & Diao, Xinshen, 2008. "Impacts of considering climate variability on investment decisions in Ethiopia [in Amharic]:," Research briefs 15(12)AMH, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    13. Thomas Berger & Christian Troost, 2014. "Agent-based Modelling of Climate Adaptation and Mitigation Options in Agriculture," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 65(2), pages 323-348, June.
    14. Pepijn Schreinemachers & Thomas Berger & Aer Sirijinda & Suwanna Praneetvatakul, 2009. "The Diffusion of Greenhouse Agriculture in Northern Thailand: Combining Econometrics and Agent‐Based Modeling," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 57(4), pages 513-536, December.
    15. Schreinemachers, Pepijn & Berger, Thomas & Aune, Jens B., 2007. "Simulating soil fertility and poverty dynamics in Uganda: A bio-economic multi-agent systems approach," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 387-401, December.
    16. Thomas Berger & Regina Birner & Nancy Mccarthy & JosÉ DíAz & Heidi Wittmer, 2007. "Capturing the complexity of water uses and water users within a multi-agent framework," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 21(1), pages 129-148, January.
    17. Sherman Robinson & Dirk Willenbockel & Kenneth Strzepek, 2012. "A Dynamic General Equilibrium Analysis of Adaptation to Climate Change in Ethiopia," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(3), pages 489-502, August.
    18. Berger, Thomas, 2001. "Agent-based spatial models applied to agriculture: a simulation tool for technology diffusion, resource use changes and policy analysis," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 25(2-3), pages 245-260, September.
    19. Tesfamicheal Wossen & Salvatore Falco & Thomas Berger & William McClain, 2016. "You are not alone: social capital and risk exposure in rural Ethiopia," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 8(4), pages 799-813, August.
    20. Christian Troost & Thomas Berger, 2015. "Dealing with Uncertainty in Agent-Based Simulation: Farm-Level Modeling of Adaptation to Climate Change in Southwest Germany," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 97(3), pages 833-854.
    21. Hertel, Thomas & Burke, Marshall & Lobell, David, 2010. "The Poverty Implications of Climate-Induced Crop Yield Changes by 2030," GTAP Working Papers 3196, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
    22. Hertel, Thomas & Burke, Marshall & Lobell, David, 2010. "The Poverty Implications of Climate-Induced Crop Yield Changes by 2030," GTAP Working Papers 3196, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
    23. Berger, Thomas & Schreinemachers, Pepijn & Woelcke, Johannes, 2006. "Multi-agent simulation for the targeting of development policies in less-favored areas," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 88(1), pages 28-43, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kruseman, Gideon & Dermawan, Ahmad & Diagne, Mandiaye & Enahoro, Dolapo & Frija, Aymen & Gatto, Marcel & Gbegbelegbe, Sika & Komarek, Adam M. & Mausch, Kai & Mottaleb, Khondoker, 2021. "Foresight for income and employment: What can we learn for agricultural research for development," SocArXiv 783rw, Center for Open Science.
    2. Tesfaye C. Cholo & Luuk Fleskens & Diana Sietz & Jack Peerlings, 2019. "Land fragmentation, climate change adaptation, and food security in the Gamo Highlands of Ethiopia," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 50(1), pages 39-49, January.
    3. Marohn, Carsten & Troost, Christian & Warth, Benjamin & Bateki, Christian & Zijlstra, Mink & Anwar, Faizan & Williams, Benjamin & Descheemaeker, Katrien & Berger, Thomas & Asch, Folkard & Dickhoefer, , 2022. "Coupled biophysical and decision-making processes in grassland systems in East African savannahs – A modelling framework," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 474(C).
    4. Salvatore Di Falco & Angela Doku & Avichal Mahajan, 2020. "Peer effects and the choice of adaptation strategies," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 51(1), pages 17-30, January.
    5. Huber, Robert & Bakker, Martha & Balmann, Alfons & Berger, Thomas & Bithell, Mike & Brown, Calum & Grêt-Regamey, Adrienne & Xiong, Hang & Le, Quang Bao & Mack, Gabriele & Meyfroidt, Patrick & Millingt, 2018. "Representation of decision-making in European agricultural agent-based models," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 143-160.
    6. Bazzana, Davide & Foltz, Jeremy & Zhang, Ying, 2022. "Impact of climate smart agriculture on food security: An agent-based analysis," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    7. Menale Kassie & Zewdu Abro & Tesfamicheal Wossen & Samuel T. Ledermann & Gracious Diiro & Shifa Ballo & Lulseged Belayhun, 2020. "Integrated Health Interventions for Improved Livelihoods: A Case Study in Ethiopia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-21, March.
    8. Carauta, Marcelo & Parussis, Julia & Hampf, Anna & Libera, Affonso & Berger, Thomas, 2021. "No more double cropping in Mato Grosso, Brazil? Evaluating the potential impact of climate change on the profitability of farm systems," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 190(C).
    9. Winter, Eva & Grovermann, Christian & Aurbacher, Joachim & Messmer, Monika M., 2021. "Analysing Interventions in the Seed and Breeding System for Organic Carrot Seed Use in Germany - a Multi-Agent Value Chain Approach," 2021 Conference, August 17-31, 2021, Virtual 314959, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    10. Marius Eisele & Christian Troost & Thomas Berger, 2021. "How Bayesian Are Farmers When Making Climate Adaptation Decisions? A Computer Laboratory Experiment for Parameterising Models of Expectation Formation," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 72(3), pages 805-828, September.
    11. Coronese, Matteo & Occelli, Martina & Lamperti, Francesco & Roventini, Andrea, 2023. "AgriLOVE: Agriculture, land-use and technical change in an evolutionary, agent-based model," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 208(C).
    12. Hasibuan, Abdul Muis & Gregg, Daniel & Stringer, Randy, 2020. "Accounting for diverse risk attitudes in measures of risk perceptions: A case study of climate change risk for small-scale citrus farmers in Indonesia," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    13. Eucabeth Majiwa & Boon L. Lee & Clevo Wilson, 2018. "Increasing agricultural productivity while reducing greenhouse gas emissions in sub†Saharan Africa: myth or reality?," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 49(2), pages 183-192, March.
    14. Karen S. Meijer & Femke Schasfoort & Maike Bennema, 2021. "Quantitative Modeling of Human Responses to Changes in Water Resources Availability: A Review of Methods and Theories," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(15), pages 1-17, August.
    15. Troost, Christian & Huber, Robert & Bell, Andrew R. & van Delden, Hedwig & Filatova, Tatiana & Le, Quang Bao & Lippe, Melvin & Niamir, Leila & Polhill, J. Gareth & Sun, Zhanli & Berger, Thomas, 2023. "How to keep it adequate: A protocol for ensuring validity in agent-based simulation," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 159, pages 1-21.
    16. Caroline King-Okumu, 2018. "Valuing Environmental Benefit Streams in the Dryland Ecosystems of Sub-Saharan Africa," Land, MDPI, vol. 7(4), pages 1-23, November.
    17. Robert Huber & Hang Xiong & Kevin Keller & Robert Finger, 2022. "Bridging behavioural factors and standard bio‐economic modelling in an agent‐based modelling framework," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(1), pages 35-63, February.
    18. Carauta, Marcelo & Troost, Christian & Guzman-Bustamante, Ivan & Hampf, Anna & Libera, Affonso & Meurer, Katharina & Bönecke, Eric & Franko, Uwe & Ribeiro Rodrigues, Renato de Aragão & Berger, Thomas, 2021. "Climate-related land use policies in Brazil: How much has been achieved with economic incentives in agriculture?," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    19. Eva Winter & Christian Grovermann & Monika M. Messmer & Joachim Aurbacher, 2023. "Assessing seed and breeding interventions for organic farming using a multiagent value chain approach," Agricultural and Food Economics, Springer;Italian Society of Agricultural Economics (SIDEA), vol. 11(1), pages 1-27, December.
    20. Archana Raghavan Sathyan & Christoph Funk & Thomas Aenis & Lutz Breuer, 2018. "Climate Vulnerability in Rainfed Farming: Analysis from Indian Watersheds," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-27, September.
    21. Nedumaran, S. & Kadiyala, D.M. & Srigiri, S.R. & Roberto, V. & McDermid, S., 2018. "Climate change impacts and vulnerability of fallow-chickpea based farm households in India: Assessment using Integrated modeling approach," 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia 277100, International Association of Agricultural Economists.

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