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Heterogeneous beliefs and idiosyncratic volatility puzzle: evidence from China

Author

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  • Mao He
  • Juncheng Huang
  • Hongquan Zhu

Abstract

Purpose - The purpose of our study is to explore the “idiosyncratic volatility puzzle” in Chinese stock market from the perspective of investors' heterogeneous beliefs. To delve into the relationship between idiosyncratic volatility and investors' heterogeneous beliefs, and uncover the ability of heterogeneous beliefs, as well as to explain the “idiosyncratic volatility puzzle”, we construct our study as follows. Design/methodology/approach - Our study adopts the unexpected trading volume as proxies of heterogeneity, the residual of Fama–French three-factor model as proxies of idiosyncratic volatility. Portfolio strategies and Fama–MacBeth regression are used to investigate the relationship between the two proxies and stock returns in Chinese A-share market. Findings - Investors' heterogeneous beliefs, as an intermediary variable, are positively correlated with idiosyncratic volatility. Meanwhile, it could better demonstrate the negative correlation between the idiosyncratic volatility and future stock returns. It is one of the economic mechanisms linking idiosyncratic volatility to subsequent stock returns, which can account for 11.28% of the puzzle. Originality/value - The findings indicate that idiosyncratic volatility is significantly and positively correlated with heterogeneous beliefs and that heterogeneous beliefs are effective intervening variables to explain the “idiosyncratic volatility puzzle”.

Suggested Citation

  • Mao He & Juncheng Huang & Hongquan Zhu, 2020. "Heterogeneous beliefs and idiosyncratic volatility puzzle: evidence from China," China Finance Review International, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 11(1), pages 124-141, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:eme:cfripp:cfri-07-2019-0128
    DOI: 10.1108/CFRI-07-2019-0128
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Hao, Jing & Xiong, Xiong, 2021. "Retail investor attention and firms' idiosyncratic risk: Evidence from China," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    2. Junjun Ma & Xindan Li & Lei Lu & Weixing Wu & Xiong Xiong, 2022. "Individual investors' dispersion in beliefs and stock returns," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 51(3), pages 929-953, September.
    3. Wang, Xinyi & Zhu, Ling & Ji, Mianmian, 2022. "One-site reform of public service and corporate investment," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
    4. Bo Liu & Lei Lu & Congming Mu & Jinqiang Yang, 2021. "Heterogeneous preferences, investment, and asset pricing," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 50(4), pages 1169-1193, December.
    5. Fan, Ruixin & Xiong, Xiong & Gao, Ya, 2021. "Can the probability of extreme returns be the basis for profitable portfolios? Evidence from China," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    6. Qingchong Chen & Xiong Xiong & Ya Gao, 2021. "Is information really efficient for the market? Evidence of confirmatory bias in China," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 61(5), pages 5965-5997, December.
    7. Gao, Ya & Han, Xing & Xiong, Xiong, 2021. "Loss from the chasing of MAX stocks: Evidence from China," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).

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