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A Mind Is a Terrible Thing to Change: Confirmatory Bias in Financial Markets

Author

Listed:
  • Sébastien Pouget

    (TSM - Toulouse School of Management Research - UT Capitole - Université Toulouse Capitole - UT - Université de Toulouse - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - TSM - Toulouse School of Management - UT Capitole - Université Toulouse Capitole - UT - Université de Toulouse)

  • Julien Sauvagnat

    (TSE-R - Toulouse School of Economics - UT Capitole - Université Toulouse Capitole - UT - Université de Toulouse - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Stéphane Villeneuve

    (TSM - Toulouse School of Management Research - UT Capitole - Université Toulouse Capitole - UT - Université de Toulouse - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - TSM - Toulouse School of Management - UT Capitole - Université Toulouse Capitole - UT - Université de Toulouse)

Abstract

This paper studies the impact of the confirmatory bias on financial markets. We propose a model in which some traders may ignore new evidence inconsistent with their favorite hypothesis regarding the state of the world. The confirmatory bias provides a unified rationale for several existing stylized facts, including excess volatility, excess volume, and momentum. It also delivers novel predictions for which we find empirical support using data on analysts' earnings forecasts: traders update beliefs depending on the sign of past signals and previous beliefs, and, at the stock level, differences of opinion are larger when past signals have different signs

Suggested Citation

  • Sébastien Pouget & Julien Sauvagnat & Stéphane Villeneuve, 2017. "A Mind Is a Terrible Thing to Change: Confirmatory Bias in Financial Markets," Post-Print halshs-01698658, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-01698658
    DOI: 10.1093/rfs/hhw100
    as

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    Keywords

    G12; G14;

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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