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A Mind Is a Terrible Thing to Change: Confirmatory Bias in Financial Markets

Author

Listed:
  • Sébastien Pouget

    (TSM - Toulouse School of Management Research - UT Capitole - Université Toulouse Capitole - UT - Université de Toulouse - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - TSM - Toulouse School of Management - UT Capitole - Université Toulouse Capitole - UT - Université de Toulouse)

  • Julien Sauvagnat

    (TSE-R - Toulouse School of Economics - UT Capitole - Université Toulouse Capitole - UT - Université de Toulouse - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Stéphane Villeneuve

    (TSM - Toulouse School of Management Research - UT Capitole - Université Toulouse Capitole - UT - Université de Toulouse - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - TSM - Toulouse School of Management - UT Capitole - Université Toulouse Capitole - UT - Université de Toulouse)

Abstract

This paper studies the impact of the confirmatory bias on financial markets. We propose a model in which some traders may ignore new evidence inconsistent with their favorite hypothesis regarding the state of the world. The confirmatory bias provides a unified rationale for several existing stylized facts, including excess volatility, excess volume, and momentum. It also delivers novel predictions for which we find empirical support using data on analysts' earnings forecasts: traders update beliefs depending on the sign of past signals and previous beliefs, and, at the stock level, differences of opinion are larger when past signals have different signs

Suggested Citation

  • Sébastien Pouget & Julien Sauvagnat & Stéphane Villeneuve, 2017. "A Mind Is a Terrible Thing to Change: Confirmatory Bias in Financial Markets," Post-Print halshs-01698658, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-01698658
    DOI: 10.1093/rfs/hhw100
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    Cited by:

    1. Cafferata, Alessia & Dávila-Fernández, Marwil J. & Sordi, Serena, 2021. "Seeing what can(not) be seen: Confirmation bias, employment dynamics and climate change," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 189(C), pages 567-586.
    2. Zhang, Yuan-Yuan & Zhang, Yue-Jun, 2022. "The impact of institutional analyst forecast divergence on crude oil market: Evidence from the mixed frequency models," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    3. Daniel J. Benjamin, 2018. "Errors in Probabilistic Reasoning and Judgment Biases," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2018_023, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.
    4. Cookson, J. Anthony & Engelberg, Joseph E. & Mullins, William, 2020. "Echo Chambers," SocArXiv n2q9h, Center for Open Science.
    5. M. Rozina & М. Розина, 2019. "Теория и практика поведенческой экономики в процессе принятия финансовых решений // The Use of Theory and Methods of Behavioural Economics in the Process of Making Financial Decisions," Review of Business and Economics Studies // Review of Business and Economics Studies, Финансовый Университет // Financial University, vol. 7(3), pages 45-82.
    6. Tao Chen & Andreas Karathanasopoulos, 2022. "Do Heterogeneous Beliefs Matter to Post‐announcement Informed Trading?," Abacus, Accounting Foundation, University of Sydney, vol. 58(4), pages 714-741, December.
    7. Heusel, Nicola & Mager, Ferdinand, 2023. "Pension funding and the cross section of stock returns - The case of Germany," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    8. Chen, Tao, 2021. "Informed trading and earnings announcement driven disagreement in global markets," Journal of International Accounting, Auditing and Taxation, Elsevier, vol. 43(C).
    9. Simon Kloker & Tim Straub & Christof Weinhardt, 2019. "Moderators for Partition Dependence in Prediction Markets," Group Decision and Negotiation, Springer, vol. 28(4), pages 723-756, August.
    10. Ruzzier, Christian A. & Woo, Marcelo D., 2023. "Discrimination with inaccurate beliefs and confirmation bias," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 210(C), pages 379-390.
    11. Li Qian & Mingsheng Li & Yan Li, 2020. "Does news travel slowly before a market crash? The role of margin traders," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 60(3), pages 3065-3101, September.
    12. Goldman, Eitan & Martel, Jordan & Schneemeier, Jan, 2022. "A theory of financial media," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(1), pages 239-258.
    13. Xiaoqiao Wang & Jing Xie & Bohui Zhang & Xiaofeng Zhao, 2024. "Unraveling the Dividend Puzzle: A Field Experiment," Working Papers 202406, University of Macau, Faculty of Business Administration.
    14. Cafferata, Alessia & Tramontana, Fabio, 2019. "A financial market model with confirmation bias," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 252-259.
    15. Ulrike Malmendier, 2018. "Behavioral Corporate Finance," NBER Working Papers 25162, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Goutte, Maud-Rose, 2022. "Do actions speak louder than words? Evidence from microblogs," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C).
    17. Wang, Hailong & Hu, Duni, 2022. "Heterogenous beliefs with sentiments and asset pricing," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    18. Shuyu Zhang & Xuanyu Zhou & Huifeng Pan & Junyi Jia, 2019. "Cryptocurrency, confirmatory bias and news readability – evidence from the largest Chinese cryptocurrency exchange," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 58(5), pages 1445-1468, March.
    19. Shuyi Li & Junhao Kong & Stefan Cristian Gherghina, 2022. "News Sentiment and the Risk of a Stock Price Crash Risk: Based on Financial Dictionary Combined BERT-DCA," Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society, Hindawi, vol. 2022, pages 1-28, July.
    20. Pedro Gonzalez-Fernandez, 2024. "Belief Bias Identification," Papers 2404.09297, arXiv.org.
    21. Qingchong Chen & Xiong Xiong & Ya Gao, 2021. "Is information really efficient for the market? Evidence of confirmatory bias in China," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 61(5), pages 5965-5997, December.
    22. Tao Chen, 2022. "Investor Protection and Post-Disclosure Disagreement: International Evidence," The International Journal of Accounting (TIJA), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 57(03), pages 1-28, September.
    23. Kong, Dongmin & Liu, Lihua & Liu, Shasha, 2020. "Market information traveling on high-speed rails: The case of analyst forecasts," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    24. Park, Hyoeun & Tayawa, Jason Paulo, 2024. "Anchored belief updating from recommendations," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    25. Suresh G., 2024. "Impact of Financial Literacy and Behavioural Biases on Investment Decision-making," FIIB Business Review, , vol. 13(1), pages 72-86, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    G12; G14;

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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