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Quarterly Projection Model for the Siberian Macroregion

Author

Listed:
  • Igor Savchenko

    (Bank of Russia)

  • Marya Butakova

    (Bank of Russia)

  • Leonid Markov

    (Bank of Russia)

  • Margarita Lyakhnova

    (Bank of Russia)

  • Olga Erushina

    (Bank of Russia)

  • Roman Gartvich

    (Bank of Russia)

  • Maxim Yakovina

    (Bank of Russia)

  • Vasilii Shcherbakov

    (Bank of Russia)

Abstract

Russia's regions are characterised by strong heterogeneity of economic conditions, and, accordingly, the regions' reaction to macroeconomic shocks throughout the country, including shocks of the single monetary policy, may be heterogeneous. This paper is devoted to the development of a tool to analyse the economy of the Siberian macroregion, a semistructural model consisting of three blocks: Siberia, the rest of Russia, and the outside world. The main difference between this model and an all-Russian model lies in the different Phillips and aggregate demand curves for Siberia and the rest of Russia. The model takes into account the specifics of Siberia, including the small contribution of the region to the main macroeconomic indicators for Russia, the high share of extractive industries in output, and others. It is shown that the model describes ongoing processes in accordance with economic intuition, which allows it to be used for medium-term forecasting and analysis.

Suggested Citation

  • Igor Savchenko & Marya Butakova & Leonid Markov & Margarita Lyakhnova & Olga Erushina & Roman Gartvich & Maxim Yakovina & Vasilii Shcherbakov, 2024. "Quarterly Projection Model for the Siberian Macroregion," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 83(4), pages 48-75, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bkr:journl:v:83:y:2024:i:4:p:48-75
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    semi-structural model; forecast; Siberian macroregion; output gap; Phillips curve; impulse response functions; monetary policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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