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A Three-Country Macroeconomic Model for Portugal

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  • Alex Pienkowski

Abstract

This paper outlines a simple three-country macroeconomic model designed to focus on the transmission of external shocks to Portugal. Building on the framework developed by Berg et al (2006), this model differentiates between shocks originating from both inside and outside the euro area, as well as domestic shocks, each of which have different implications for Portugal. This framework is also used to consider the dynamics of the Portuguese economy over recent decades. The model, which is designed to guide forecasts and undertake simulations, can easily be modified for use in other small euro area countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Alex Pienkowski, 2019. "A Three-Country Macroeconomic Model for Portugal," IMF Working Papers 2019/281, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2019/281
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mr. Alvar Kangur & Koralai Kirabaeva & Jean-Marc Natal & Simon Voigts, 2019. "How Informative Are Real Time Output Gap Estimates in Europe?," IMF Working Papers 2019/200, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Gabriela Castro & José R. Maria & Paulo Júlio, 2013. "Inside PESSOA -A Detailed Description of the Model," Working Papers w201316, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    3. Patrick Blagrave & Mr. Roberto Garcia-Saltos & Mr. Douglas Laxton & Fan Zhang, 2015. "A Simple Multivariate Filter for Estimating Potential Output," IMF Working Papers 2015/079, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Sara Serra, 2018. "Is the Phillips curve dead? - results for Portugal," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    5. José Pedro Braga & Inês Pereira & Teresa Balcão Reis, 2014. "Composite Indicator of Financial Stress for Portugal," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
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    Cited by:

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    3. Alyona Nelyubina, 2021. "Forecasting Regional Indicators Based on the Quarterly Projection Model," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 80(2), pages 50-75, June.

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