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Assessing the Consequences of the Pandemic for the Russian Economy Through an Input-Output Model

Author

Listed:
  • Aleksey Ponomarenko

    (Bank of Russia)

  • Svetlana Popova

    (Bank of Russia)

  • Andrey Sinyakov

    (Bank of Russia)

  • Natalia Turdyeva

    (Bank of Russia)

  • Dmitry Chernyadyev

    (Bank of Russia)

Abstract

This paper evaluates the impact of anti-coronavirus measures on the dynamics of economic activity. In addition to primary shocks directly caused by restrictive measures, we assess their secondary effects through inter-industry relationships. Our assessments show that secondary effects impact more industries than primary effects do. The overall impact of secondary effects on the economy proves to be of a larger scale than the impact of primary effects with high heterogeneity of dynamics by industry.

Suggested Citation

  • Aleksey Ponomarenko & Svetlana Popova & Andrey Sinyakov & Natalia Turdyeva & Dmitry Chernyadyev, 2020. "Assessing the Consequences of the Pandemic for the Russian Economy Through an Input-Output Model," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 79(4), pages 3-17, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bkr:journl:v:79:y:2020:i:4:p:3-17
    DOI: 10.31477/rjmf.202004.03
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Anastasia Mogilat & Oleg Kryzhanovskiy & Zhanna Shuvalova & Yaroslav Murashov, 2024. "DYFARUS: Dynamic Factor Model to Forecast GDP by Output Using Input-Output Tables," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 83(2), pages 3-25, June.
    2. Natalia Turdyeva & Anna Tsvetkova & Levon Movsesyan & Alexey Porshakov & Dmitriy Chernyadyev, 2021. "Data of Sectoral Financial Flows as a High-Frequency Indicator of Economic Activity," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 80(2), pages 28-49, June.
    3. Danila Karpov, 2023. "Russia's Import Dependence and Estimated Consequences of Import Restrictions," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 82(1), pages 55-86, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; input-output model; payment system; GDP;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C67 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Input-Output Models
    • I1 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health

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