IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bjz/ajisjr/2244.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Causal Relationship Between Export, Import and Harmonized Consumer Price Index: Evidence from Kosovo

Author

Listed:
  • Halil Kukaj
  • Artan Nimani

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the causal relationship between export, import, and inflation for Kosovo which is a developing country. Pointedly, we examine empirically this relationship by deliberating that export and import influence the harmonized consumer price index, which is expressed as the inflation rate. This paper employs time series monthly data for the period 2010-Jan to 2020-Dec extracted from Kosovo’s Agency of Statistics. Since these variables were stationary at different levels, we have integrated the Toda-Yamamoto approach to Granger causality. The proposed model was free of autocorrelation and no root lied outside the unit circle indicating that the model is stable. The results of Granger causality revealed that export causes import and import causes export, export does not cause inflation, and inflation does not cause export. However, import caused inflation, and inflation caused import. Henceforth, we have performed the Impulse Response Function to analyze the interaction between variables in a vector autoregressive model and we have performed variance decomposition to check the variability in the dependent variable lagged by its variance. The study is spectacled that import is the main vehicle of economic development of Kosovo and for this reason, import causes inflation rate. The results of this study imply that the Kosovar government should take measures to control the effect of imports on increasing of consumer prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Halil Kukaj & Artan Nimani, 2022. "The Causal Relationship Between Export, Import and Harmonized Consumer Price Index: Evidence from Kosovo," Academic Journal of Interdisciplinary Studies, Richtmann Publishing Ltd, vol. 11, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:bjz:ajisjr:2244
    DOI: https://doi.org/10.36941/ajis-2022-0083
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.richtmann.org/journal/index.php/ajis/article/view/12919
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.richtmann.org/journal/index.php/ajis/article/view/12919/12514
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/https://doi.org/10.36941/ajis-2022-0083?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Wenyu Zang & Mark Baimbridge, 2012. "Exports, imports and economic growth in South Korea and Japan: a tale of two economies," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(3), pages 361-372, January.
    2. Hakan Çetintaş & Salih Barişik, 2009. "Export, Import and Economic Growth: The Case of Transition Economies," Transition Studies Review, Springer;Central Eastern European University Network (CEEUN), vol. 15(4), pages 636-649, February.
    3. Ebrima K. Ceesay & Christopher Belford & Momodou Mustapha Fanneh & Habibatou Drammeh, 2019. "Relationship between Export, Imports and Economic Growth: An Export-led Growth Strategy for the Gambia Using The Granger Causality Test," International Journal of Social Sciences Perspectives, Online Academic Press, vol. 4(2), pages 38-47.
    4. Rizwan Raheem AHMED & Saghir Pervaiz GHAURI & Jolita VVEINHARDT & Dalia STREIMIKIENE, 2018. "An Empirical Analysis of Export, Import, and Inflation: A Case of Pakistan," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 117-130, September.
    5. Ritu Rani & Naresh Kumar, 2018. "Is There an Export- or Import-led Growth in BRICS Countries? An Empirical Investigation," Jindal Journal of Business Research, , vol. 7(1), pages 13-23, June.
    6. Qazi Muhammad Adnan Hye & Houda Ben Haj Boubaker, 2011. "Exports, Imports and Economic Growth: An Empirical Analysis of Tunisia," The IUP Journal of Monetary Economics, IUP Publications, vol. 0(1), pages 6-21, February.
    7. Jemma Dridi & Kimberly Zieschang, 2004. "Export and Import Price Indices," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 51(1), pages 1-9.
    8. Michael J. Boskin, 1998. "Consumer Prices, the Consumer Price Index, and the Cost of Living," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 12(1), pages 3-26, Winter.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Olufemi Adewale Aluko Adefemi A. Obalade, 2020. "Import-economic growth nexus in selected African countries: An application of the Toda-Yamamoto Granger non-causality test," Zagreb International Review of Economics and Business, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb, vol. 23(2), pages 117-128, November.
    2. Rasha Istaiteyeh & Farah Najem & Nahil Saqfalhait, 2023. "Exports- and Imports-Led Growth: Evidence from a Time Series Analysis, Case of Jordan," Economies, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-20, May.
    3. Bakari, Sayef, 2024. "Causality between Domestic Investment and Economic Growth: New Evidence from Argentina," MPRA Paper 121799, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Nenavath Sreenu, 2019. "An Econometric Time-Series Analysis of the Dynamic Relationship among Trade, Financial Development and Economic Growth in India," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 9(2), pages 155-165, February.
    5. Huffman, Wallace, 2004. "Marketizing U.S. Production in the Post-War Era: Implications for Estimating CPI Bias and Real Income from a Complete-Household-Demand System," Staff General Research Papers Archive 11987, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    6. Wallace E. Huffman & Matthew Rousu & Jason F. Shogren & Abebayehu Tegene, 2004. "Who Do Consumers Trust for Information: The Case of Genetically Modified Foods?," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 86(5), pages 1222-1229.
    7. Libor Dusek & Lubomir Lizal (ed.), 2011. "CERGE-EI Tackles Transition," CERGE-EI Books, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague, edition 1, number b05, May.
    8. Patrick Bajari & Zhihao Cen & Victor Chernozhukov & Manoj Manukonda & Jin Wang & Ramon Huerta & Junbo Li & Ling Leng & George Monokroussos & Suhas Vijaykunar & Shan Wan, 2023. "Hedonic prices and quality adjusted price indices powered by AI," CeMMAP working papers 08/23, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    9. Bakari, Sayef, 2017. "The Nexus between Export, Import, Domestic Investment and Economic Growth in Japan," MPRA Paper 76110, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Aleksandra Parteka & Joanna Wolszczak-Derlacz, 2013. "The Impact of Trade Integration with the European Union on Productivity in a Posttransition Economy: The Case of Polish Manufacturing Sectors," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(2), pages 84-104, March.
    11. Hanousek, Jan & Filer, Randall K, 2004. "Consumers' Opinion of Inflation Bias Due to Quality Improvements," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 53(1), pages 235-254, October.
    12. Nyoni, Thabani, 2019. "Predicting CPI in France," MPRA Paper 92416, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Zavou Argyro & Anastasiou Athanasios & Liargovas Panagiotis & Dermatis Zacharias & Komninos Dimitrios, 2018. "Trade Flows and Economic Growth Between Countries – Members of the European Union," Noble International Journal of Economics and Financial Research, Noble Academic Publsiher, vol. 3(7), pages 78-85, July.
    14. Nyoni, Thabani, 2019. "Modeling and forecasting CPI in Iran: A univariate analysis," MPRA Paper 92454, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Mohammad Mafizur Rahman & Muhammad Shahbaz, 2013. "Do Imports and Foreign Capital Inflows Lead Economic Growth? Cointegration and Causality Analysis in Pakistan," South Asia Economic Journal, Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka, vol. 14(1), pages 59-81, March.
    16. Goldman, Dana P. & Sood, Neeraj & Leibowitz, Arleen, 2005. "The reallocation of compensation in response to health insurance premium increases," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 147-151, August.
    17. Saghir Pervaiz GHAURI & Hina QADIR & Rizwan Raheem AHMED & Dalia STREIMIKIENE & Justas STREIMIKIS, 2022. "The Exports Performance of Pakistan: Evidence from the ARDL Cointegration Analysis," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 150-168, December.
    18. Nyoni, Thabani, 2019. "Predicting CPI in Panama," MPRA Paper 92419, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Arian Tahiri & Faruk Ahmeti & Burim Prenaj, 2023. "The Effect of International Migrant Remittances on Employment Patterns: Evidence from Kosovo," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 1, pages 126-142.
    20. Rachel Griffith & Ephraim Leibtag & Andrew Leicester & Aviv Nevo, 2008. "Timing and Quantity of Consumer Purchases and the Consumer Price Index," NBER Working Papers 14433, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bjz:ajisjr:2244. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Richtmann Publishing Ltd (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.richtmann.org/journal/index.php/ajis .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.