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Forecasting the business cycle. Summary of the 8th International Institute of Forecasters workshop hosted by the Banque de France on 1-2 December 2011 in Paris

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  • L. Ferrara.

Abstract

In the wake of the recent international economic recession in 2008-2009, forecasting methods designed to anticipate business cycles have been widely revisited. Recent innovative econometric methods were presented and widely discussed by academics and economists from international and national institutions at the latest IIF workshop which was hosted by the Banque de France in Paris on 1-2 December 2011.

Suggested Citation

  • L. Ferrara., 2011. "Forecasting the business cycle. Summary of the 8th International Institute of Forecasters workshop hosted by the Banque de France on 1-2 December 2011 in Paris," Quarterly selection of articles - Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 24, pages 135-144, Winter.
    • Handle: RePEc:bfr:quarte:2011:24:07
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2005. "Implications of Dynamic Factor Models for VAR Analysis," NBER Working Papers 11467, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Diebold, Francis X & Gunther, Todd A & Tay, Anthony S, 1998. "Evaluating Density Forecasts with Applications to Financial Risk Management," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 863-883, November.
    3. Arthur F. Burns & Wesley C. Mitchell, 1946. "Measuring Business Cycles," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number burn46-1.
    4. Hamilton, James D., 2011. "Calling recessions in real time," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 1006-1026, October.
    5. Laurent Ferrara, 2009. "Caractérisation et datation des cycles économiques en zone euro," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 60(3), pages 703-712.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    business cycles; forecasting; recession; econometric modelling; density forecasts; leading indicators.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • C34 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Truncated and Censored Models; Switching Regression Models
    • C38 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Classification Methdos; Cluster Analysis; Principal Components; Factor Analysis
    • C45 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Neural Networks and Related Topics
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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