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House prices, the distribution of household debt and the refinancing channel of monetary policy

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  • Cumming, Fergus
  • Hubert, Paul

Abstract

We investigate why the effect of monetary policy on aggregate consumption depends on the distribution of household indebtedness. Using UK loan-level micro-data, we identify the fraction of households with a limited ability to smooth consumption and find that the heterogeneous impact of monetary policy on consumption depends on house price dynamics and the share of highly-indebted households. Consumption responds strongly to monetary policy when the share of highly-indebted households is large and house prices have recently decreased, but we find no effect after periods of house price growth. Our results highlight the role of household heterogeneity and the refinancing channel in the transmission of monetary policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Cumming, Fergus & Hubert, Paul, 2022. "House prices, the distribution of household debt and the refinancing channel of monetary policy," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:212:y:2022:i:c:s0165176522000064
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2022.110280
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Cumming, Fergus, 2022. "Mortgage cash-flows and employment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    2. Juniours Marire, 2024. "Interactive influence of house prices and the repo rate on household debt in South Africa," Journal of Economic Analysis, Anser Press, vol. 3(1), pages 58-78, March.
    3. Samuel Ligonnière & Salima Ouerk, 2024. "The unequal distribution of credit: Is there any role for monetary policy?," French Stata Users' Group Meetings 2024 08, Stata Users Group.
    4. Chowdhury, Mohammad Ashraful Ferdous & Prince, Ehsanur Rauf & Shoyeb, Mohammad & Abdullah, Mohammad, 2024. "The threshold effect of institutional quality on sovereign debt and economic stability," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 39-59.
    5. Huazhu Zheng & Jiao Qian & Guihuan Liu & Yongjiao Wu & Claudio O. Delang & Hongming He, 2023. "Housing prices and household consumption: a threshold effect model analysis in central and western China," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 10(1), pages 1-16, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Heterogeneity; Consumption; Mortgage debt;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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