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COVID-19 a nivel local: SEIR+ un modelo para proyectar escenarios epidemiológicos y demandas hacia el sistema sanitario

Author

Listed:
  • Alejandro Danón

    (Universidad Nacional de Tucumán; BICE)

  • Andrés S. Mena

    (Universidad Nacional de Tucumán; CONICET)

  • Andrés Ramasco

    (Universidad Nacional de Tucumán)

Abstract

Este trabajo presenta un modelo capaz de describir y proyectar la evolución del COVID-19 a nivel local. Para ello, diseñamos, programamos, y calibramos un modelo epidemiológico «SEIR plus» que además de los cuatro estados principales del modelo SEIR clásico, describe la trayectoria de enfermos severos y críticos, estados esenciales para la planificación del sistema de salud. Además, sumamos particularidades locales, como ser la curva etaria de la población y medidas de mitigación que impacten en el factor reproductivo. Asimismo, nuestro modelo es estocástico debido a la incorporación de incertidumbre en variables claves asociadas al virus y de difícil proyección para el hacedor de políticas. El modelo muestra un buen ajuste adentro y afuera de la muestra en su aplicación a Ciudad de Buenos Aires y Tucumán, Argentina. Finalmente, mostramos su aplicación para Tucumán, proyectando un escenario epidemiológico factible, y las demandas del sistema sanitario.

Suggested Citation

  • Alejandro Danón & Andrés S. Mena & Andrés Ramasco, 2021. "COVID-19 a nivel local: SEIR+ un modelo para proyectar escenarios epidemiológicos y demandas hacia el sistema sanitario," Ensayos de Política Económica, Departamento de Investigación Francisco Valsecchi, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Pontificia Universidad Católica Argentina., vol. 3(3), pages 1-24, Octubre.
    • Handle: RePEc:atw:epecon:v:3:y:2021:i:3:p:1-24
    DOI: 10.46553/ensayos.3.3.2021.p1-24
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID; pronóstico SEIR; demanda sanitaria;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C60 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - General
    • I10 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - General
    • C00 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - General

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