IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/aic/saebjn/v70y2023i1p57-70n6.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Linear and Nonlinear Relationship Between Real Exchange Rate, Real Interest Rate and Consumer Price Index: An Empirical Application for Countries with Different Levels of Development

Author

Listed:
  • Ersin Sünbül

    (Independent Researcher, Ankara, Turkey)

Abstract

The research population of this study consists of Australia, Azerbaijan, Egypt, Brazil, Chile, Canada, Hungary, Pakistan, India, Ukraine and the United Kingdom. For these countries; T, the relationship between Exchange Rate Index (exc), Real Interest Rate (int) and Consumer Price Index (cpi) variables were examined. Data from 2000Q1 to 2021Q3 were used in the study. The data are taken from the IMF's data bank. Analysis was done in R-Studio. Wo Seasonality Test, Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test, Linear Granger Causality Analysis and Nonlinear Granger Causality Analysis were used to investigate the relationship between variables. The theory claims that there is causality in both directions between exchange rate, interest rate and inflation. In the study, the relationship between these variables was investigated with linear and nonlinear causality tests. It is thought that the empirical results that contradict the theory are caused by the development levels of the countries, their macroeconomic structures, the applied fiscal and monetary policy instruments, the conjuncture and the analysis methods. The study aims to investigate these claims. For this reason, the development levels, sociocultural and socioeconomic structures of the selected countries were requested to be different. In addition, two different test methods, linear and non-linear, were preferred for the causality relationship. It was observed that the selected analysis methods significantly affected the results. Linear causality analysis results are closer to theoretical implications. However, the level of development of the countries does not have a significant effect on the relationship between the variables.

Suggested Citation

  • Ersin Sünbül, 2023. "Linear and Nonlinear Relationship Between Real Exchange Rate, Real Interest Rate and Consumer Price Index: An Empirical Application for Countries with Different Levels of Development," Scientific Annals of Economics and Business (continues Analele Stiintifice), Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 70(1), pages 57-70, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:aic:saebjn:v:70:y:2023:i:1:p:57-70:n:6
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://saeb.feaa.uaic.ro/index.php/saeb/article/view/1531
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hakan Kara & Fethi Ogunc, 2005. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Turkey : It is Slow, but is it Really Low?," Working Papers 0510, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    2. Ollech, Daniel & Webel, Karsten, 2020. "A random forest-based approach to identifying the most informative seasonality tests," Discussion Papers 55/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    3. Andrew Coleman, 2010. "Uncovering uncovered interest parity during the classical gold standard era, 1888-1905," Working Papers 10_02, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
    4. Su, Liangjun & White, Halbert, 2008. "A Nonparametric Hellinger Metric Test For Conditional Independence," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(4), pages 829-864, August.
    5. Su, Liangjun & White, Halbert, 2014. "Testing conditional independence via empirical likelihood," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 182(1), pages 27-44.
    6. Agenor, Pierre-Richard & McDermott, C. John & Ucer, Murat, 1997. "Fiscal imbalances, capital inflows, and the real exchange rate: The case of Turkey," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-5), pages 819-825, April.
    7. Diks, Cees & Panchenko, Valentyn, 2006. "A new statistic and practical guidelines for nonparametric Granger causality testing," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(9-10), pages 1647-1669.
    8. Selim KAYHAN & Tayfur BAYAT & Ahmet UGUR, 2013. "Interest Rates and Exchange Rate Relationship in BRIC-T Countries," Ege Academic Review, Ege University Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, vol. 13(2), pages 227-236.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Li, Haiqi & Zhong, Wanling & Park, Sung Y., 2016. "Generalized cross-spectral test for nonlinear Granger causality with applications to money–output and price–volume relations," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 661-671.
    2. Hoderlein, Stefan & Su, Liangjun & White, Halbert & Yang, Thomas Tao, 2016. "Testing for monotonicity in unobservables under unconfoundedness," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 193(1), pages 183-202.
    3. repec:cte:werepe:we1211 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Bertrand Candelon & Sessi Tokpavi, 2016. "A Nonparametric Test for Granger Causality in Distribution With Application to Financial Contagion," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(2), pages 240-253, April.
    5. Huseyin Karamelikli & Mohammad Sharif Karimi, 2022. "Asymmetric relationship between interest rates and exchange rates: Evidence from Turkey," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 1269-1279, January.
    6. Fan, Jianqing & Feng, Yang & Xia, Lucy, 2020. "A projection-based conditional dependence measure with applications to high-dimensional undirected graphical models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 218(1), pages 119-139.
    7. Huang, Meng & Sun, Yixiao & White, Halbert, 2016. "A Flexible Nonparametric Test For Conditional Independence," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 32(6), pages 1434-1482, December.
    8. Semei Coronado & Rebeca Jim'enez-Rodr'iguez & Omar Rojas, 2015. "An empirical analysis of the relationships between crude oil, gold and stock markets," Papers 1510.07599, arXiv.org, revised May 2016.
    9. Xiaojun Song & Haoyu Wei, 2021. "Nonparametric Tests of Conditional Independence for Time Series," Papers 2110.04847, arXiv.org.
    10. Xu, Kai & Cheng, Qing, 2024. "Test of conditional independence in factor models via Hilbert–Schmidt independence criterion," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 199(C).
    11. Polanco-Martínez, J.M. & Fernández-Macho, J. & Neumann, M.B. & Faria, S.H., 2018. "A pre-crisis vs. crisis analysis of peripheral EU stock markets by means of wavelet transform and a nonlinear causality test," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 490(C), pages 1211-1227.
    12. Taoufik Bouezmarni & Jeroen V.K. Rombouts & Abderrahim Taamouti, 2011. "Nonparametric Copula-Based Test for Conditional Independence with Applications to Granger Causality," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(2), pages 275-287, October.
    13. H. F. Tareq Ahmed & Nur Syazwani Mazlan, 2021. "The Impact of Interest Rate on Exchange Rate Within ASEAN Countries: Evidence from Linear and Nonlinear ARDL Frameworks," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 13(1), pages 7-34, January.
    14. Taoufik Bouezmarni & Abderrahim Taamouti, 2014. "Nonparametric tests for conditional independence using conditional distributions," Journal of Nonparametric Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(4), pages 697-719, December.
    15. Su, Liangjun & Zheng, Xin, 2017. "A martingale-difference-divergence-based test for specification," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 162-167.
    16. Massa, Ricardo & Rosellón, Juan, 2020. "Linear and nonlinear Granger causality between electricity production and economic performance in Mexico," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    17. Zhou, Yeqing & Liu, Jingyuan & Zhu, Liping, 2020. "Test for conditional independence with application to conditional screening," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 175(C).
    18. Xuehu Zhu & Jun Lu & Jun Zhang & Lixing Zhu, 2021. "Testing for conditional independence: A groupwise dimension reduction‐based adaptive‐to‐model approach," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 48(2), pages 549-576, June.
    19. Wang, Hongfei & Liu, Binghui & Feng, Long & Ma, Yanyuan, 2024. "Rank-based max-sum tests for mutual independence of high-dimensional random vectors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 238(1).
    20. Ai, Chunrong & Sun, Li-Hsien & Zhang, Zheng & Zhu, Liping, 2024. "Testing unconditional and conditional independence via mutual information," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 240(2).
    21. Zhang, Yaowu & Zhou, Yeqing & Zhu, Liping, 2024. "A post-screening diagnostic study for ultrahigh dimensional data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 239(2).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:aic:saebjn:v:70:y:2023:i:1:p:57-70:n:6. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sireteanu Napoleon-Alexandru (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/feaicro.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.