IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/aic/journl/y2008v55p363-370.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Construction of composite leading indicator for the Slovak economy

Author

Listed:
  • Miroslav Klúcik
  • Ján Haluška

    (Institute of Informatics and Statistics, Socio-economic Analyses and Forecasts Division, Dúbravská cesta 3, 845 24 Bratislava, Slovak Republic)

Abstract

Cyclical performance of economies in a turbulent environment is forcing researchers to search for early signals of turning points between the phases of slowdowns and accelerations. The most appropriate tool to solve this problem is the composite leading indicator (CLI), which is an aggregate index of several individual indicators proved to be statistical relevant for analyzing and forecasting of significant macro-economic indicators (reference series). The leading indicator provides qualitative information of the most probable performance of a reference cycle (i.e. GDP, Industrial production) with a significant lead-time of several months. INFOSTAT (the research institution of the Statistical Office of the Slovak Republic) is about to create and use its own periodically published composite leading indicator (now the only CLI for Slovakia is published by OECD) as a source of new information about so far non-investigated economic relations with the aim to improve the quality of short-term forecasts.

Suggested Citation

  • Miroslav Klúcik & Ján Haluška, 2008. "Construction of composite leading indicator for the Slovak economy," Analele Stiintifice ale Universitatii "Alexandru Ioan Cuza" din Iasi - Stiinte Economice (1954-2015), Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 55, pages 363-370, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:aic:journl:y:2008:v:55:p:363-370
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://anale.feaa.uaic.ro/anale/resurse/038_S01_Klucik_Halushka.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://anale.feaa.uaic.ro/anale/ro/Arhiva%202008%20-%20Klucik/245
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Geoffrey H. Moore & Julius Shiskin, 1967. "Indicators of Business Expansions and Contractions," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number moor67-2.
    2. Zarnowitz, Victor & Ozyildirim, Ataman, 2006. "Time series decomposition and measurement of business cycles, trends and growth cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(7), pages 1717-1739, October.
    3. Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Hallin, Marc & Forni, Mario, 2000. "Reference Cycles: The NBER Methodology Revisited," CEPR Discussion Papers 2400, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Philip A. Klein & Geoffrey H. Moore, 1982. "The Leading Indicator Approach to Economic Forecasting--Retrospect and Prospect," NBER Working Papers 0941, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Stephen G. Hall & Nicholas G. Zonzilos, 2003. "An Indicator Measuring Underlying Economic Activity in Greece," Working Papers 04, Bank of Greece.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Wong, Shirly Siew-Ling & Abu Mansor, Shazali & Puah, Chin-Hong & Liew, Venus Khim-Sen, 2012. "Forecasting malaysian business cycle movement: empirical evidence from composite leading indicator," MPRA Paper 36649, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Wong, Shirly Siew-Ling & Puah, Chin-Hong & Abu Mansor, Shazali & Liew, Venus Khim-Sen, 2012. "Early warning indicator of economic vulnerability," MPRA Paper 39944, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Enrique López Enciso, 2019. "Dos tradiciones en la medición del ciclo: historia general y desarrollos en Colombia," Tiempo y Economía, Universidad de Bogotá Jorge Tadeo Lozano, vol. 6(1), pages 77-142, February.
    2. Wolfgang Nierhaus & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2016. "ifo Konjunkturumfragen und Konjunkturanalyse: Band II," ifo Forschungsberichte, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 72.
    3. repec:ilo:ilowps:278801 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Vojtech Benda & Lubos Ruzicka, 2007. "Short-term Forecasting Methods Based on the LEI Approach: The Case of the Czech Republic," Research and Policy Notes 2007/01, Czech National Bank.
    5. Marcel, Mario., 1990. "Leading indicators for employment forecasting in developing countries," ILO Working Papers 992788013402676, International Labour Organization.
    6. Enrique A. López-Enciso, 2017. "Dos tradiciones en la medición del ciclo: historia general y desarrollos en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 986, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    7. Krittika Banerjee, 2012. "Credit and Growth Cycles in India: An Empirical Assessment of the Lead and Lag Behaviour," Working Papers id:4699, eSocialSciences.
    8. Andres Mauricio Gómez Sánchez & Juliana Isabel Sarmiento Castillo & Claudia Liceth Fajardo Hoyos, 2016. "Indicador global adelantado de corto y largo plazo para la economía del Cauca 1960-2014," Apuntes del Cenes, Universidad Pedagógica y Tecnológica de Colombia, vol. 35(62), pages 209-244, July.
    9. Sonia de Lucas Santos & M. Jesús Delgado Rodríguez & Inmaculada Álvarez Ayuso & José Luis Cendejas Bueno, 2011. "Los ciclos económicos internacionales: antecedentes y revisión de la literatura," Cuadernos de Economía - Spanish Journal of Economics and Finance, Asociación Cuadernos de Economía, vol. 34(95), pages 73-84, Agosto.
    10. Rafal Kasperowicz, 2010. "Identification Of Industrial Cycle Leading Indicators Using Causality Test," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 5(2), pages 47-59, December.
    11. Sergey V. Smirnov & Nikolay V. Kondrashov & Anna V. Petronevich, 2017. "Dating Cyclical Turning Points for Russia: Formal Methods and Informal Choices," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 13(1), pages 53-73, May.
    12. Ludmila Fadejeva & Aleksejs Melihovs, 2008. "The Baltic states and Europe: common factors of economic activity," Baltic Journal of Economics, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies, vol. 8(1), pages 75-96, October.
    13. Robert H. McGuckin & Ataman Ozyildirim, 2004. "Real-Time Tests of the Leading Economic Index: Do Changes in the Index Composition Matter?," Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2004(2), pages 171-191.
    14. Mathilde Aubry & Jean Bonnet & Patricia Renou-Maissant, 2015. "Entrepreneurship and the business cycle: the “Schumpeter” effect versus the “refugee” effect—a French appraisal based on regional data," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 54(1), pages 23-55, January.
    15. Kajal Lahiri & Wenxiong Yao, 2004. "The predictive power of an experimental transportation output index," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(3), pages 149-152.
    16. Duncan A. O’Brien & Smita Deb & Gideon Gal & Stephen J. Thackeray & Partha S. Dutta & Shin-ichiro S. Matsuzaki & Linda May & Christopher F. Clements, 2023. "Early warning signals have limited applicability to empirical lake data," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-14, December.
    17. Michael Artis & Anindya Banerjee & Massimiliano Marcellino, "undated". "Factor forecasts for the UK," Working Papers 203, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    18. Johan Fourie & Willem H. Boshoff, 2008. "Ship traffic and the economy of the Cape Colony: 1652-1793," Working Papers 089, Economic Research Southern Africa.
    19. Crowley, Patrick & Aaron, Schultz, 2010. "A New Approach to Analyzing Convergence and Synchronicity in Growth and Business Cycles: Cross Recurrence Plots and Quantification Analysis," MPRA Paper 23728, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Henk C. Kranendonk & Jan Bonenkamp & Johan P. Verbruggen, 2004. "A Leading Indicator for the Dutch Economy – Methodological and Empirical Revision of the CPB System," CESifo Working Paper Series 1200, CESifo.
    21. Rozite, Kristiana & Bezemer, Dirk J. & Jacobs, Jan P.A.M., 2019. "Towards a financial cycle for the U.S., 1973–2014," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:aic:journl:y:2008:v:55:p:363-370. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sireteanu Napoleon-Alexandru (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/feaicro.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.