IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/col/000152/014946.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Indicador global adelantado de corto y largo plazo para la economía del Cauca 1960-2014

Author

Listed:
  • Andres Mauricio Gómez Sánchez
  • Juliana Isabel Sarmiento Castillo
  • Claudia Liceth Fajardo Hoyos

Abstract

Este documento propone la construcción de un indicador líder o adelantado para la economía del departamento del Cauca, a través de tres metodologías alternativas, distantes de las tradicionalmente basadas en la metodología National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). Para lograrlo, se utilizan tres indicadores de corto y largo plazo, bajo el método de descomposición lineal del ciclo, otro indicador global sintético basado en la metodología de los componentes principales y finalmente otro que utiliza el algoritmo del filtro de Kalman. Los resultados muestran, entre otros aspectos, que el indicador en el escenario Kalman supera en robustez estadística a los otros dos indicadores y augura un crecimiento económico positivo para esta región en los anos venideros.

Suggested Citation

  • Andres Mauricio Gómez Sánchez & Juliana Isabel Sarmiento Castillo & Claudia Liceth Fajardo Hoyos, 2016. "Indicador global adelantado de corto y largo plazo para la economía del Cauca 1960-2014," Apuntes del Cenes, Universidad Pedagógica y Tecnológica de Colombia, vol. 35(62), pages 209-244, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000152:014946
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://revistas.uptc.edu.co/revistas/index.php/cenes/article/view/5231
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Luis Eduardo Arango & Fernando Arias & Luz Adriana Flórez & Munir Jalil, 2008. "Cronología de los ciclos de negocios recientes en Colombia," Revista Lecturas de Economía, Universidad de Antioquia, CIE, June.
    2. Geoffrey H. Moore & Julius Shiskin, 1967. "Indicators of Business Expansions and Contractions," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number moor67-2.
    3. Herman Kamil & José David Pulido & José Luis Torres, 2010. "El "IMACO": un índice mensual de la actividad económica en Colombia," Monetaria, CEMLA, vol. 0(4), pages 495-548, octubre-d.
    4. Arango, Luis E. & Melo, Luis F., 2006. "Expansions and contractions in Brazil, Colombia and Mexico: A view through nonlinear models," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 501-517, August.
    5. Philip A. Klein & Geoffrey H. Moore, 1982. "The Leading Indicator Approach to Economic Forecasting--Retrospect and Prospect," NBER Working Papers 0941, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Gallardo, Mauricio & Pedersen, Michael, 2007. "Un sistema de indicadores líderes compuestos para la región de América Latina," Estudios Estadísticos 4758, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    7. Alvaro Montenegro, 2005. "Introducción al filtro Kalman," Documentos de Economía 2920, Universidad Javeriana - Bogotá.
    8. Mauricio Avella & Leopoldo Fergusson, 2004. "El Ciclo Económico Enfoques e Ilustraciones Los Ciclos Económicos de Estados Unidos y Colombia," Borradores de Economia 284, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    9. Martha Misas & Enrique López, 1999. "El producto potencial en Colombia: una estimación bajo var estructural," Coyuntura Económica, Fedesarrollo, September.
    10. Alfonso, Viviana & Arango, Luis Eduardo & Arias, Fernando & Cangrejo, Guillermo & Pulido, José David, 2012. "Ciclos de negocios en Colombia, 1975-2011," Revista Lecturas de Economía, Universidad de Antioquia, CIE, issue 78, pages 115-149, May.
    11. Arthur F. Burns & Wesley C. Mitchell, 1946. "Measuring Business Cycles," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number burn46-1.
    12. Julius Shiskin & Geoffrey H. Moore, 1968. "Composite Indexes of Leading, Coinciding, and Lagging Indicators, 1948–67," NBER Chapters, in: Supplement to NBER Report One, pages 1-8, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bry_71-1.
    14. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1989. "New Indexes of Coincident and Leading Economic Indicators," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1989, Volume 4, pages 351-409, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Foreword to "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs"," NBER Chapters, in: Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs, pages -1, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Alan J. Auerbach, 1981. "The Index of Leading Indicators: "Measurement without Theory," Twenty-Five Years Later," NBER Working Papers 0761, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Edgar Vicente MARCILLO YÉPEZ, 2013. "Un indicador Líder para la actividad económica de Colombia," Archivos de Economía 11205, Departamento Nacional de Planeación.
    2. Jorge Mario Uribe & Inés María Ulloa & Johanna Perea, 2015. "Reference financial cycle in Colombia," Lecturas de Economía, Universidad de Antioquia, Departamento de Economía, issue 83, pages 33-62, Julio - D.
    3. Viviana Alejandra Alfonso & Luis Eduardo Arango Thomas & Fernando Arias & José David Pulido, 2011. "Ciclos de negocios en Colombia: 1980-2010," Borradores de Economia 8328, Banco de la Republica.
    4. Enrique A. López-Enciso, 2017. "Dos tradiciones en la medición del ciclo: historia general y desarrollos en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 986, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    5. Enrique López Enciso, 2019. "Dos tradiciones en la medición del ciclo: historia general y desarrollos en Colombia," Tiempo y Economía, Universidad de Bogotá Jorge Tadeo Lozano, vol. 6(1), pages 77-142, February.
    6. Gerson Javier Pérez-Valbuena & Diana Ricciulli-Marín & Jaime Bonet-Morón & Paula Barrios, 2021. "Reglas fiscales subnacionales en Colombia: desde su concepción hasta los resultados frente al COVID-19," Documentos de Trabajo Sobre Economía Regional y Urbana 19126, Banco de la República, Economía Regional.
    7. repec:ilo:ilowps:278801 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. João Victor Issler & Hilton Hostalacio Notini & Claudia Fontoura Rodrigues, 2013. "Constructing coincident and leading indices of economic activity for the Brazilian economy," OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2012(2), pages 43-65.
    9. Issler, Joao Victor & Notini, Hilton & Rodrigues, Claudia & Soares, Ana Flávia, 2013. "Constructing coincident indices of economic activity for the Latin American economy," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 67(1), April.
    10. Marcel, Mario., 1990. "Leading indicators for employment forecasting in developing countries," ILO Working Papers 992788013402676, International Labour Organization.
    11. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1990. "Business Cycle Properties of Selected U.S. Economic Time Series, 1959-1988," Working Papers 1990-1, Princeton University. Economics Department..
    12. Deicy J. Cristiano-Botia & Manuel Dario Hernandez-Bejarano & Mario A. Ramos-Veloza, 2021. "Labor Market Indicator for Colombia (LMI)," Borradores de Economia 1152, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    13. Marcus Scheiblecker, 2007. "Datierung von Konjunkturwendepunkten in Österreich," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 80(9), pages 715-730, September.
    14. Soh, Ann-Ni, 2020. "A Review on the Leading Indicator Approach towards Economic Forecasting," MPRA Paper 103854, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Herman Kamil & José David Pulido & José Luis Torres, 2010. "El IMACO": un índice mensual líder de la actividad económica en Colombia"," Borradores de Economia 7129, Banco de la Republica.
    16. Luis Eduardo Arango & Freddy Felipe Parra-Escobar & Álvaro José Pinzón-Giraldo, 2016. "El ciclo económico y el mercado de trabajo en Colombia: 1984-2014," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República, vol. 34(81), pages 206-228, November.
    17. Morais, Igor Alexandre C. & Chauvet, Marcelle, 2011. "Leading Indicators for the Capital Goods Industry," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 31(1), March.
    18. Issler, Joao Victor & Vahid, Farshid, 2006. "The missing link: using the NBER recession indicator to construct coincident and leading indices of economic activity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 132(1), pages 281-303, May.
    19. Wolfgang Nierhaus & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2016. "ifo Konjunkturumfragen und Konjunkturanalyse: Band II," ifo Forschungsberichte, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 72.
    20. Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2020. "Words are the New Numbers: A Newsy Coincident Index of the Business Cycle," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(2), pages 393-409, April.
    21. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 2014. "Estimating turning points using large data sets," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 178(P2), pages 368-381.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    indicador líder; ciclos económicos; filtro de Kalman; componentes principales; economía regional.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C01 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Econometrics
    • C43 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Index Numbers and Aggregation
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • P25 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - Urban, Rural, and Regional Economics

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:col:000152:014946. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Luis Eudoro Vallejo Zamudio (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://revistas.uptc.edu.co/index.php/cenes/index .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.