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A Modified Partial Adjustment Model Of Aggregate U.S. Agricultural Supply

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  • LaFrance, Jeffrey T.
  • Burt, Oscar R.

Abstract

Aggregate U.S. agricultural supply response is modeled through a modified partial adjustment model, where the effects of weather and other temporal stochastic effects are structured to be purely static, while the effects of price and technology, or trend, are dynamic. The model is applied to a time series of aggregate U.S. farm output, aggregate U.S. crop production, and aggregate U.S. livestock and livestock products production for several sample periods within the period 1911-1958. The three aggregate output indexes are tested for irreversibilities in supply response, and no evidence of a definitive irreversible supply function is found for any of the dynamic supply models. The use of a nonstochastic difference equation to model the aggregate farm output and crop production equations results in short-run elasticity estimates that are somewhat smaller than previous studied suggest while the long-run elasticities are somewhat larger.

Suggested Citation

  • LaFrance, Jeffrey T. & Burt, Oscar R., 1983. "A Modified Partial Adjustment Model Of Aggregate U.S. Agricultural Supply," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 8(1), pages 1-12, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:wjagec:32483
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.32483
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    2. Kim, Young W. & Koo, Won W. & Yang, Seung-Ryong, 1992. "Impact of Trade Liberalization on the Korean Rice Market," Agricultural Economics Reports 23223, North Dakota State University, Department of Agribusiness and Applied Economics.
    3. Mjelde, James W. & Hollinger, Steven E., 1987. "Development of Climate Indices for Application in Empirical Crop Production Studies," Staff Paper Series 257982, Texas A&M University, Department of Agricultural Economics.
    4. Nestor Le Clech & Carmen Fillat‐Castejón, 2017. "International aggregate agricultural supply for grain and oilseed: The effects of efficiency and technological change," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(4), pages 569-585, September.
    5. Vroomen, Harry L. & McClelland, John W., 1987. "Misspecification Of Time Series Models In U.S. Agricultural Response Analysis," 1987 Annual Meeting, August 2-5, East Lansing, Michigan 270117, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    6. Lohr, Luanne & Park, Timothy A., 1992. "Certification And Supply Response In The Organic Lettuce Market," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 17(2), pages 1-13, December.
    7. Paniagua-Molina, Javier & Solís-Rivera, Luis Ricardo, 2020. "Effect of “Golden Pineapple Innovation” on Costa Rica's Pineapple Exports to U.S. Market: An Econometric Approach," International Journal of Food and Agricultural Economics (IJFAEC), Alanya Alaaddin Keykubat University, Department of Economics and Finance, vol. 8(3), July.
    8. Liapis, Peter S., 1988. "Economic Analysis Of Grain Production In France," Staff Reports 278016, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    9. Koo, Won W. & Lehman, James R., 1984. "Effects of Government Programs on Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat Production in the U.S," Agricultural Economics Reports 23141, North Dakota State University, Department of Agribusiness and Applied Economics.
    10. Escalante, Cesar L. & Turvey, Calum G. & Barry, Peter J., 2006. "Farm-Level Evidence on the Sustainable Growth Paradigm from Grain and Livestock Farms," 2006 Annual Meeting, August 12-18, 2006, Queensland, Australia 25329, International Association of Agricultural Economists.

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