IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ags/phajad/166011.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Can Trade Policies Soften the Economic Impacts of an Avian Influenza Outbreak? Simulations From a CGE Model of the Philippines

Author

Listed:
  • Rodríguez, U-Primo E.
  • Garcia, Yolanda T.
  • Garcia, Arnulfo G.
  • Tan, Reynaldo L.

Abstract

The paper examines the possibilities of using trade policy to address the adverse economic effects of an avian influenza outbreak in the Philippines. In particular, it employs a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model for analyzing the likely effects of two options; namely, a) a ban on imported poultry, and b) the removal of tariffs on non-poultry meat products. Using six model scenarios (i.e., production shocks, consumption shocks, ban on poultry imports, removal of tariff on non-poultry imports, and selected combinations of these shocks), the simulation results reveal that (a) the consumption and production shocks are expected to have a contractionary effect on real GDP; (b) the expected fall in the output of poultry products explains most of the decline in real GDP; (c) the production shock appears to have a larger impact since this explains most of the decline in real GDP as well as the increase in the general price level; (d) while the consumption shock tends to have a larger impact on the poultry products, the production shock dominates the aggregate responses because of its effects on other industries, and (e) avian influenza is likely to have far-reaching effects on the economy, way beyond the poultry sector. Based on these results, this paper supports the use of an import ban as a preventive measure against the occurrence of an avian influenza attack. This is based on the finding that the economic costs from such a measure appear to be lower than the costs associated with the disease. In contrast, the study finds that there is a weak case for removing tariffs on non-poultry meat products as a means to soften the harmful impacts of an avian influenza outbreak.

Suggested Citation

  • Rodríguez, U-Primo E. & Garcia, Yolanda T. & Garcia, Arnulfo G. & Tan, Reynaldo L., 2007. "Can Trade Policies Soften the Economic Impacts of an Avian Influenza Outbreak? Simulations From a CGE Model of the Philippines," Asian Journal of Agriculture and Development, Southeast Asian Regional Center for Graduate Study and Research in Agriculture (SEARCA), vol. 4(2), pages 1-10, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:phajad:166011
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.166011
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/166011/files/AJAD_2007_4_2_3Rodriguez.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.166011?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cabalu, Helen & Rodriguez, U-Primo, 2007. "Trade-offs in Trade Liberalization: Evidence from the Philippine 2005 Tariff Changes," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 22, pages 637-663.
    2. Warwick McKibbin & Alexandra Sidorenko, 2006. "Global Macroeconomic Consequences of Pandemic Influenza," CAMA Working Papers 2006-26, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zamani, Omid & Chibanda, Craig & Pelikan, Janine, 2020. "Tariff Escalation and Import Bans in the Economic Partnership Agreement between the EU and West Africa," Conference papers 333239, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    2. Zamani, Omid & Chibanda, Craig & Pelikan, Janine, 2021. "Investigating Alternative Poultry Trade Policies in the Context of African Countries: Evidence from Ghana," 2021 Conference, August 17-31, 2021, Virtual 315173, International Association of Agricultural Economists.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Shibing You & Hengli Wang & Miao Zhang & Haitao Song & Xiaoting Xu & Yongzeng Lai, 2020. "Assessment of monthly economic losses in Wuhan under the lockdown against COVID-19," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 7(1), pages 1-12, December.
    2. Margaret Chitiga‐Mabugu & Martin Henseler & Ramos Mabugu & Hélène Maisonnave, 2021. "Economic and Distributional Impact of COVID‐19: Evidence from Macro‐Micro Modelling of the South African Economy," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 89(1), pages 82-94, March.
    3. Verikios, George & Dixon, Peter B. & Rimmer, Maureen T. & Harris, Anthony H., 2015. "Improving health in an advanced economy: An economywide analysis for Australia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 250-261.
    4. Nigmatulina, Karima R. & Larson, Richard C., 2009. "Living with influenza: Impacts of government imposed and voluntarily selected interventions," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 195(2), pages 613-627, June.
    5. Di Bartolomeo, Giovanni & D'Imperio, Paolo & Felici, Francesco, 2022. "The fiscal response to the Italian COVID-19 crisis: A counterfactual analysis," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    6. U-Primo E. Rodriguez & Yolanda T. Garcia & Arnulfo G. Garcia & Reynaldo T. Tan, 2007. "Can Trade Policies Soften the Economic Impacts of an Avian Influenza Outbreak? Simulations From a CGE Model of the Philippines," Asian Journal of Agriculture and Development, Southeast Asian Regional Center for Graduate Study and Research in Agriculture (SEARCA), vol. 4(2), pages 41-50, December.
    7. Mercy Busayo BELLO & Yekinni Ojo BELLO, PhD, 2021. "Consequences of Covid-19 Pandemic on Hospitality Industry: The Nigeria Experience," International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science, International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science (IJRISS), vol. 5(1), pages 422-425, January.
    8. Emmanuel Apergis & Nicholas Apergis, 2021. "The impact of COVID-19 on economic growth: evidence from a Bayesian Panel Vector Autoregressive (BPVAR) model," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(58), pages 6739-6751, December.
    9. Zaremba, Adam & Bianchi, Robert J. & Mikutowski, Mateusz, 2021. "Long-run reversal in commodity returns: Insights from seven centuries of evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    10. R Maria del Rio-Chanona & Penny Mealy & Anton Pichler & François Lafond & J Doyne Farmer, 2020. "Supply and demand shocks in the COVID-19 pandemic: an industry and occupation perspective," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 36(Supplemen), pages 94-137.
    11. Joseph H. Cook, 2013. "Principles and standards for benefit–cost analysis of public health preparedness and pandemic mitigation programs," Chapters, in: Scott O. Farrow & Richard Zerbe, Jr. (ed.), Principles and Standards for Benefit–Cost Analysis, chapter 3, pages 110-152, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    12. Afees A. Salisu & Abdulsalam Abidemi Sikiru & Philip C. Omoke, 2023. "COVID-19 pandemic and financial innovations," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 57(4), pages 3885-3904, August.
    13. Llanto, Gilberto M., 2016. "Risks, Shocks, Building Resilience: Philippines," Discussion Papers DP 2016-09, Philippine Institute for Development Studies.
    14. Yiuman Tse & Brian C. McTier & John K. Wald, 2011. "Do Stock Markets Catch the Flu? We examine the impact of influenza on the U.S. stock market. A higher incidence of flu is associated with decreased trading, decreased volatility, and higher bid-ask sp," Working Papers 0004, College of Business, University of Texas at San Antonio.
    15. Llanto, Gilberto M., 2016. "Risks, Shocks, Building Resilience: Philippines," Research Paper Series DP 2016-09, Philippine Institute for Development Studies.
    16. Ahmed, S. Amer & Baris, Enis & Go, Delfin S & Lofgren, Hans & Osorio Rodarte, Israel & Thierfelder, Karen, 2017. "Assessing the Global Economic and Poverty Effects of Antimicrobial Resistance," Conference papers 332903, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    17. Waliu O. Shittu & Gazi M. Hassan & Frank G. Scrimgeour, 2023. "COVID-19 and the Role of Remittances on Sustainable Development: Insights from Sub-Saharan Africa," Working Papers in Economics 23/05, University of Waikato.
    18. Fan, Victoria Y & Jamison, Dean T & Summers, Lawrence H, 2018. "Pandemic risk: how large are the expected losses?," Scholarly Articles 35014363, Harvard Kennedy School of Government.
    19. Boisvert, Richard N. & Kay, David & Turvey, Calum G., 2012. "Macroeconomic costs to large scale disruptions of food production: The case of foot- and-mouth disease in the United States," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1921-1930.
    20. Robert H. Beach & Christine Poulos & Subhrendu K. Pattanayak, 2007. "Farm Economics of Bird Flu," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 55(4), pages 471-483, December.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:phajad:166011. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/searcph.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.