IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/aic/saebjn/v69y2022i3p435-457n7.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Revisiting Interest Rate – Exchange Rate Dynamics in South Africa: How Relevant is Pandemic Uncertainties?

Author

Listed:
  • Percy Mkhosi

    (School of Economics and Finance, University of the Witwatersrand)

  • Ismail Fasanya

    (School of Economics and Finance, University of the Witwatersrand)

Abstract

This paper revisits the link between exchange rate and interest rate considering the role of uncertainty due to infectious diseases in the South African economy using monthly data from January 1985 to August 2020 within a nonparametric framework. First, we examine the relationship between the exchange-interest rates hypothesis and observe a significant positive link, especially during the pandemic. Second, we analyze the volatility spillover among exchange rates, interest rates and other macroeconomic fundamentals and find a strong connection with the interest rate being net receivers of shocks. Third, with evidence of nonlinearity in the variables, the nonparametric quantiles-based causality test shows that the spillover for each asset is driven by pandemic uncertainty around the median quantiles. Conclusively, this suggests that the role of global health news in influencing the South African financial cycle which consequently leads to capital flows and movements in the prices of assets across financial markets cannot be downplayed. Relevant policy implications can be drawn from these findings.

Suggested Citation

  • Percy Mkhosi & Ismail Fasanya, 2022. "Revisiting Interest Rate – Exchange Rate Dynamics in South Africa: How Relevant is Pandemic Uncertainties?," Scientific Annals of Economics and Business (continues Analele Stiintifice), Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 69(3), pages 435-457, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:aic:saebjn:v:69:y:2022:i:3:p:435-457:n:7
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://saeb.feaa.uaic.ro/index.php/saeb/article/view/1476
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Warwick McKibbin & Roshen Fernando, 2021. "The Global Macroeconomic Impacts of COVID-19: Seven Scenarios," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 20(2), pages 1-30, Summer.
    2. Arezki, Rabah & Dumitrescu, Elena & Freytag, Andreas & Quintyn, Marc, 2014. "Commodity prices and exchange rate volatility: Lessons from South Africa's capital account liberalization," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 19(C), pages 96-105.
    3. Warwick McKibbin & Roshen Fernando, 2020. "Global macroeconomic scenarios of the COVID-19 pandemic," CAMA Working Papers 2020-62, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    4. Hnatkovska, Viktoria & Lahiri, Amartya & Vegh, Carlos A., 2013. "Interest rate and the exchange rate: A non-monotonic tale," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 68-93.
    5. Al-Awadhi, Abdullah M. & Alsaifi, Khaled & Al-Awadhi, Ahmad & Alhammadi, Salah, 2020. "Death and contagious infectious diseases: Impact of the COVID-19 virus on stock market returns," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C).
    6. Lars Jonung & Werner Roeger, 2006. "The macroeconomic effects of a pandemic in Europe - A model-based assessment," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 251, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    7. Omair Haroon & Syed Aun R. Rizvi, 2020. "Flatten the Curve and Stock Market Liquidity – An Inquiry into Emerging Economies," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(10), pages 2151-2161, August.
    8. Jeong, Kiho & Härdle, Wolfgang K. & Song, Song, 2012. "A Consistent Nonparametric Test For Causality In Quantile," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 28(4), pages 861-887, August.
    9. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis & Kyle J. Kost, 2019. "Policy News and Stock Market Volatility," NBER Working Papers 25720, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Maryam Batool & Huma Ghulam & Muhammad Azmat Hayat & Muhammad Zahid Naeem & Abdullah Ejaz & Zulfiqar Ali Imran & Cristi Spulbar & Ramona Birau & Tiberiu Horațiu Gorun, 2021. "How COVID-19 has shaken the sharing economy? An analysis using Google trends data," Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(1), pages 2374-2386, January.
    11. Warwick McKibbin & Alexandra Sidorenko, 2006. "Global Macroeconomic Consequences of Pandemic Influenza," CAMA Working Papers 2006-26, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Tiberiu Cristian Avrămescu, 2020. "Assessments on the Effects of the Coronavirus Pandemic on the Economies of the Central and South-East European Union Countries," Ovidius University Annals, Economic Sciences Series, Ovidius University of Constantza, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 0(1), pages 105-112, August.
    2. Nepp, Alexander & Okhrin, Ostap & Egorova, Julia & Dzhuraeva, Zarnigor & Zykov, Alexander, 2022. "What threatens stock markets more - The coronavirus or the hype around it?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 519-539.
    3. Ismail Fasanya & Ololade Periola & Abiodun Adetokunbo, 2023. "On the effects of Covid-19 pandemic on stock prices: an imminent global threat," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 57(3), pages 2231-2248, June.
    4. McKibbin, Warwick & Fernando, Roshen, 2023. "The global economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    5. Pham, Tien Duc & Dwyer, Larry & Su, Jen-Je & Ngo, Tramy, 2021. "COVID-19 impacts of inbound tourism on Australian economy," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    6. Wittwer, Glyn & Anderson, Kym, 2021. "COVID-19 and Global Beverage Markets: Implications for Wine," Journal of Wine Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(2), pages 117-130, May.
    7. Di Bartolomeo, Giovanni & D'Imperio, Paolo & Felici, Francesco, 2022. "The fiscal response to the Italian COVID-19 crisis: A counterfactual analysis," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    8. Paul J. J. Welfens, 2020. "Macroeconomic and health care aspects of the coronavirus epidemic: EU, US and global perspectives," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 295-362, May.
    9. Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2022. "Understanding exchange rate shocks during COVID-19," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
    10. Al-Maadid, Alanoud & Alhazbi, Saleh & Al-Thelaya, Khaled, 2022. "Using machine learning to analyze the impact of coronavirus pandemic news on the stock markets in GCC countries," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    11. Emmanuel Apergis & Nicholas Apergis, 2021. "The impact of COVID-19 on economic growth: evidence from a Bayesian Panel Vector Autoregressive (BPVAR) model," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(58), pages 6739-6751, December.
    12. Joseph H. Cook, 2013. "Principles and standards for benefit–cost analysis of public health preparedness and pandemic mitigation programs," Chapters, in: Scott O. Farrow & Richard Zerbe, Jr. (ed.), Principles and Standards for Benefit–Cost Analysis, chapter 3, pages 110-152, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    13. Mabugu, Ramos E. & Maisonnave, Helene & Henseler, Martin & Chitiga-Mabugu, Margaret & Makochekanwa, Albert, 2023. "Implications of COVID-19 and mitigation measures on gender and the Zimbabwean economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    14. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Devpura, Neluka & Wang, Hua, 2020. "Japanese currency and stock market—What happened during the COVID-19 pandemic?," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 191-198.
    15. Godfrey Marozva & Margaret Rutendo Magwedere, 2021. "Nexus Between Stock Returns, Funding Liquidity and COVID-19," SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, University of Piraeus, vol. 71(3-4), pages 86-100, July-Dece.
    16. Emmanuel Joel Aikins Abakah & Aviral Kumar Tiwari & Chi‐Chuan Lee & Matthew Ntow‐Gyamfi, 2023. "Quantile price convergence and spillover effects among Bitcoin, Fintech, and artificial intelligence stocks," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 23(1), pages 187-205, March.
    17. George Verikios & Maura Sullivan & Pane Stojanovski & James Giesecke & Gordon Woo, 2016. "Assessing Regional Risks From Pandemic Influenza: A Scenario Analysis," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(8), pages 1225-1255, August.
    18. Salisu, Afees A. & Vo, Xuan Vinh & Lucey, Brian, 2021. "Gold and US sectoral stocks during COVID-19 pandemic," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    19. Shabir, Mohsin & Jiang, Ping & Wang, Wenhao & Işık, Özcan, 2023. "COVID-19 pandemic impact on banking sector: A cross-country analysis," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    20. Padhan, Rakesh & Prabheesh, K.P., 2021. "The economics of COVID-19 pandemic: A survey," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 220-237.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:aic:saebjn:v:69:y:2022:i:3:p:435-457:n:7. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sireteanu Napoleon-Alexandru (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/feaicro.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.