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Alternative Estimates of Fed Beef Supply Response to Risk

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  • Frances Antonovitz
  • Richard Green

Abstract

Supply response models for fed beef incorporating risk by including both the mean and variance of output price are developed, estimated, and compared. Six different estimates of the mean and variance are obtained from futures prices; ARIMA processes; and naive, adaptive, and rational expectations models. Empirical estimates are compared using nonnested testing procedures and indicate that the choice of the expectations model significantly influences elasticity estimates and whether supply response is positive or negative. Empirical evidence does not support any one model in particular, suggesting that expectations are heterogenous rather than homogenous.

Suggested Citation

  • Frances Antonovitz & Richard Green, 1990. "Alternative Estimates of Fed Beef Supply Response to Risk," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 72(2), pages 475-487.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:ajagec:v:72:y:1990:i:2:p:475-487.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.2307/1242351
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