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The Value of USDA Crop Progress and Condition Information: Reactions of Corn and Soybean Futures Markets

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  • Lehecka, Georg V.

Abstract

This paper investigates the informational value of USDA crop progress and condition information by analyzing reactions of corn and soybean futures markets from 1986 to 2012. Results show significant differences between close-to-open return variabilities on report-release trading days and pre- and postreport days. Additionally, market prices tend to react rapidly and rationally to new crop-condition information. Strongest reactions are found for July and August, when weather conditions are most critical for the crop, and reactions have increased over time. Overall, these results suggest that reports have substantial informational value.

Suggested Citation

  • Lehecka, Georg V., 2014. "The Value of USDA Crop Progress and Condition Information: Reactions of Corn and Soybean Futures Markets," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 39(1), pages 1-18, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:jlaare:168261
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.168261
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Ying, Jiahui & Shonkwiler, J. Scott, 2017. "A Temporal Impact Assessment Method for the Informational Content of USDA Reports in Corn and Soybean Futures Markets," 2017 Annual Meeting, July 30-August 1, Chicago, Illinois 258201, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    2. J. R. Stokes, 2024. "A Markov chain model of crop conditions and intrayear crop yield forecasting," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(3), pages 583-592, April.
    3. Joshua Huang & Teresa Serra & Philip Garcia, 2021. "The Value of USDA Announcements in the Electronically Traded Corn Futures Market: A Modified Sufficient Test with Risk Adjustments," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 72(3), pages 712-734, September.
    4. Indriawan, Ivan & Martinez, Valeria & Tse, Yiuman, 2021. "The impact of the change in USDA announcement release procedures on agricultural commodity futures," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 23(C).
    5. Andrew M. McKenzie & Jessica L. Darby, 2017. "Information Content of USDA Rice Reports and Price Reactions of Rice Futures," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(4), pages 552-568, September.
    6. Bethlem, Isadora Vercesi & Lima, Roberto Arruda de Souza & Lima, Lilian Maluf de, 2023. "The impact of the USDA soybean crop condition reports on CBOT futures prices," Revista de Economia e Sociologia Rural (RESR), Sociedade Brasileira de Economia e Sociologia Rural, vol. 61(2), January.
    7. Pierrick Piette, 2019. "Can Satellite Data Forecast Valuable Information from USDA Reports ? Evidences on Corn Yield Estimates," Working Papers hal-02149355, HAL.
    8. Adrian Fernandez‐Perez & Bart Frijns & Ivan Indriawan & Alireza Tourani‐Rad, 2019. "Surprise and dispersion: informational impact of USDA announcements," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 50(1), pages 113-126, January.
    9. Capitani, Daniel H D & Mattos, Fabio L. & Cruz, Jose Cesar & Silva, Renato Moraes & Franco Da Silveira, Rodrigo Lanna, 2024. "The Reaction Of Corn Futures Prices To U.S. And Brazilian Crop Reports," 2024 Annual Meeting, July 28-30, New Orleans, LA 343571, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.

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    Crop Production/Industries; Marketing;

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