IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ags/joaaec/350122.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Investment, Irreversibility, and Uncertainty in Energy Beet-Based Ethanol

Author

Listed:
  • Hossio, Kassu Wamisho
  • Ripplinger, David

Abstract

This study evaluates optimal investment decision rules for an energy beet ethanol firm to exercise the option to invest, mothball, reactivate, and exit the ethanol market, considering uncertainty and volatility in the market price of ethanol, feedstock, and irreversible investment. A real options framework is used to compute gross margins of ethanol that trigger entry into and exit from the ethanol market. Results show that volatility in ethanol gross margins has much greater effects on exit and entry decisions than investment costs, and it also causes firms to wait longer before entering the ethanol market and, once active, to wait longer before exiting.

Suggested Citation

  • Hossio, Kassu Wamisho & Ripplinger, David, 2016. "Investment, Irreversibility, and Uncertainty in Energy Beet-Based Ethanol," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 48(4), November.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:joaaec:350122
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.350122
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/350122/files/investment-irreversibility-and-uncertainty-in-energy-beet-based-ethanol.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.350122?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 5474.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ben Abdallah, Skander & Lasserre, Pierre, 2016. "Asset retirement with infinitely repeated alternative replacements: Harvest age and species choice in forestry," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 144-164.
    2. Ansgar Belke & Matthias Göcke & Martin Günther, 2009. "When Does It Hurt?: The Exchange Rate "Pain Threshold" for German Exports," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 943, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    3. Marco Cucculelli & Barbara Ermini, 2012. "Individual risk attitude, product innovation and firm performance. Evidence from survey data," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(4), pages 3197-3212.
    4. Oscar Gutiérrez & Francisco Ruiz-Aliseda, 2011. "Real options with unknown-date events," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 7(2), pages 171-198, May.
    5. d’Amato, Maurizio & Zrobek, Sabina & Renigier Bilozor, Malgorzata & Walacik, Marek & Mercadante, Giuseppe, 2019. "Valuing the effect of the change of zoning on underdeveloped land using fuzzy real option approach," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 365-374.
    6. Nishide, Katsumasa & Tian, Yuan, 2011. "Compensation measures for alliance formation: A real options analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 219-228.
    7. Checherita-Westphal, Cristina & Rother, Philipp, 2010. "The impact of high and growing government debt on economic growth: an empirical investigation for the euro area," Working Paper Series 1237, European Central Bank.
    8. Timothy Erickson & Toni M. Whited, 2000. "Measurement Error and the Relationship between Investment and q," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 108(5), pages 1027-1057, October.
    9. Sevcan Yesiltas, 2009. "Financing Constraints and Investment: The Case of Turkish Manufacturing Firms," 2009 Meeting Papers 874, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    10. I. Sebastian Buhai & Coen N. Teulings, 2014. "Tenure Profiles and Efficient Separation in a Stochastic Productivity Model," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(2), pages 245-258, April.
    11. Hervé-Mignucci, Morgan, 2011. "Rôle du signal prix du carbone sur les décisions d'investissement des entreprises," Economics Thesis from University Paris Dauphine, Paris Dauphine University, number 123456789/8200 edited by Keppler, Jan Horst.
    12. T Heikkinen & K Pietola, 2006. "Rural Investment and the Cost of Income Uncertainty," ERSA conference papers ersa06p51, European Regional Science Association.
    13. Ilker Ersegun Kayhan & Glenn P. Jenkins, 2016. "Determination of Socially Equitable Guarantees for PPPs: A Toll-Road Case from Turkey," Development Discussion Papers 2016-06, JDI Executive Programs.
    14. Rosati, Nicoletta & Bellia, Mario & Matos, Pedro Verga & Oliveira, Vasco, 2020. "Ratings matter: Announcements in times of crisis and the dynamics of stock markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    15. Pizer, William A. & Kopp, Raymond, 2005. "Calculating the Costs of Environmental Regulation," Handbook of Environmental Economics, in: K. G. Mäler & J. R. Vincent (ed.), Handbook of Environmental Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 25, pages 1307-1351, Elsevier.
    16. Eleftherios Giovanis & Oznur Ozdamar, 2022. "The nexus between business–investment climate and firm performance in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region," Review of Economics and Political Science, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 7(4), pages 257-285, February.
    17. Arve, Malin & Zwart, Gijsbert, 2023. "Optimal procurement and investment in new technologies under uncertainty," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    18. Frank Riedel & Xia Su, 2011. "On irreversible investment," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 15(4), pages 607-633, December.
    19. Agrell, Per J. & Teusch, Jonas, 2020. "Predictability and strategic behavior under frontier regulation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    20. Radu Tunaru & Ephraim Clark & Howard Viney, 2005. "An option pricing framework for valuation of football players," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 14(3-4), pages 281-295.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Resource/Energy Economics and Policy;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:joaaec:350122. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/saeaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.