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A Cyclical Phenomenon among Stock & Commodity Markets

Author

Listed:
  • Hector O. Zapata

    (Department of Agricultural Economics & Agribusiness, Louisiana State University, LSU Agricultural Center, Baton Rouge, LA 70803, USA)

  • Junior E. Betanco

    (Department of Agricultural Economics & Agribusiness, Louisiana State University, LSU Agricultural Center, Baton Rouge, LA 70803, USA)

  • Maria Bampasidou

    (Department of Agricultural Economics & Agribusiness, Louisiana State University, LSU Agricultural Center, Baton Rouge, LA 70803, USA)

  • Michael Deliberto

    (Department of Agricultural Economics & Agribusiness, Louisiana State University, LSU Agricultural Center, Baton Rouge, LA 70803, USA)

Abstract

Considerable studies have examined the relationship between commodity markets and stock markets. This paper studies the cyclical relationship between commodity markets and stock markets with implications for investing based on index relationships. Stock markets are represented by the U.S. S&P 500 index and aggregate commodity markets by the U.S. producer price index (PPI). Tradeable market indexes readily available to investors, namely the S&P GSCI Index and the Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM), are also studied. An optimal bandpass filter is used to estimate the cyclical component using a pricing-performance measure of the S&P 500 relative to the PPI, based on annual data from 1871 to 2022. The S&P GSCI and the BCOM indexes are also used to test the robustness of the findings. The impacts of the financial crisis of 2008 and the coronavirus pandemic are also assessed. The overriding conclusion of the study is that a cyclical relationship exists between stock markets and commodity markets for both aggregate and tradeable indexes which can last, from peak to peak, approximately 31 years. Measuring returns and risks in a manner consistent with these cycles can shed new light on the usefulness of commodity investing via tradeable indexes in seeking efficient portfolios.

Suggested Citation

  • Hector O. Zapata & Junior E. Betanco & Maria Bampasidou & Michael Deliberto, 2023. "A Cyclical Phenomenon among Stock & Commodity Markets," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 16(7), pages 1-13, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jjrfmx:v:16:y:2023:i:7:p:320-:d:1186407
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Zapata, Hector O. & Detre, Joshua D. & Hanabuchi, Tatsuya, 2012. "Historical Performance of Commodity and Stock Markets," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 44(3), pages 1-19, August.
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    5. Billah, Mabruk & Balli, Faruk & Hoxha, Indrit, 2023. "Extreme connectedness of agri-commodities with stock markets and its determinants," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    6. Lucas, Robert E., 1977. "Understanding business cycles," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 7-29, January.
    7. Luo Wang & Bin Li & Rakesh Gupta & Jen-Je Su & Benjamin Liu, 2017. "Return Predictability in Australian Managed Funds," International Journal of Business and Economics, School of Management Development, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan, vol. 16(1), pages 1-19, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Pinto-Ávalos, Francisco & Bowe, Michael & Hyde, Stuart, 2024. "Revisiting the pricing impact of commodity market spillovers on equity markets," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 33(C).
    2. Fahmi Ghallabi & Ahmed Ghorbel & Sitara Karim, 2025. "Decoding systemic risks across commodities and emerging market stock markets," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 11(1), pages 1-23, December.
    3. Iuga, Iulia Cristina & Mudakkar, Syeda Rabab & Dragolea, Larisa Loredana, 2024. "Agricultural commodities market reaction to COVID-19," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    4. Ramesh Adhikari & Kyle J. Putnam, 2024. "Financial Market Stress and Commodity Returns: A Dynamic Approach," Commodities, MDPI, vol. 3(1), pages 1-23, January.
    5. Yasmeen, Rizwana & Shah, Wasi Ul Hassan, 2025. "Impact of business cycles on energy poverty: Exploring the significance with sustainable development goals in newly industrialized economies," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 378(PA).

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