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Issues and strategies in ex-post evaluation of intervention against animal disease outbreaks and spread

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  • Fadiga, Mohamadou L.
  • Katjiuongua, Hikuepi B.

Abstract

Animal disease outbreaks pose a significant threat in terms of potential economic losses, reduced productivity, and negative impacts on public health, food security and nutrition. This paper considers four issues in ex-post evaluation of animal disease interventions: firstly, a counterfactual involves simulating disease trajectories without the intervention. But some diseases can become endemic or become dormant after an outbreak, making it a challenge to know the true trajectory without the intervention. Secondly, without adequate design of controls and treatments, how can the estimated impacts be attributed to a given intervention? Thirdly, how do we assess costs saved by the intervention? Fourthly, given data uncertainty, would a stochastic simulation give better estimates than a deterministic one in solving for key variables? This paper addresses these issues and proposes solutions that bridge the gap between household level analysis and macro-level simulations in modelling the impact of animal diseases outbreaks.

Suggested Citation

  • Fadiga, Mohamadou L. & Katjiuongua, Hikuepi B., 2014. "Issues and strategies in ex-post evaluation of intervention against animal disease outbreaks and spread," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(P2), pages 418-424.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jfpoli:v:49:y:2014:i:p2:p:418-424
    DOI: 10.1016/j.foodpol.2014.10.007
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    1. Alejandro Acosta & Carlos Barrantes & Rico Ihle, 2020. "Animal disease outbreaks and food market price dynamics: Evidence from regime‐dependent modelling and connected scatterplots," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 64(3), pages 960-976, July.
    2. Msangi, Siwa & Enahoro, Dolapo & Herrero, Mario & Magnan, Nicholas & Havlik, Petr & Notenbaert, An & Nelgen, Signe, 2014. "Integrating livestock feeds and production systems into agricultural multi-market models: The example of IMPACT," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(P2), pages 365-377.
    3. van Wijk, Mark T., 2014. "From global economic modelling to household level analyses of food security and sustainability: How big is the gap and can we bridge it?," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(P2), pages 378-388.
    4. Acosta, Alejandro & Barrantes, Carlos & Ihle, Rico, 2020. "Animal disease outbreaks and food market price dynamics: Evidence from regime-dependent modelling and connected scatterplots," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 64(3), July.
    5. Baker, Derek & Enahoro, Dolapo, 2014. "Policy analysis and advocacy for livestock-based development: The gap between household-level analysis and higher-level models," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(P2), pages 361-364.
    6. Seeger, Riley M. & Hagerman, Amy D. & Johnson, Kamina K. & Pendell, Dustin L. & Marsh, Thomas L., 2021. "When poultry take a sick leave: Response costs for the 2014–2015 highly pathogenic avian influenza epidemic in the USA," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).

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