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Growth And Forecasting Of Badc And National Boro Seed Production In Bangladesh: An Empirical Study

Author

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  • Mia, Md. Shahin
  • Uddin, Md. Taj
  • Kabir, Humayun
  • Miah, M. A. Monayem

Abstract

The study focused on the analysis of growth and forecasting of BADC and national Boro seed production in Bangladesh. Time series data were obtained from the published annual reports of BADC covering the period from 1990-91 to 2019-20 and national Boro seed production data were collected from seed wing, Ministry of Agriculture for the period of 2005-06 to 2019-20. It was found from the growth analysis that the production of BADC and national Boro seed have been registered positive and significant growth during the above mention period. The exponential growth model revealed that BADC and national Boro seed production have been increased by 11.04% and 5.12% per annum, respectively and their trend coefficients were positive. The prediction of BADC and national Boro seed production were made for the next ten years (2020-21 to 2029-30). ARIMA (0, 2, 1) and the exponential growth model showed that if the present growth rate is continued, BADC and national Boro seed production will be 80447.35 MT and 203512.26 MT, respectively in the year 2029-2030. The study recommended that the adequate supply of Boro seed to the farmers have improved their socioeconomic condition through the increased production of Boro rice in Bangladesh.

Suggested Citation

  • Mia, Md. Shahin & Uddin, Md. Taj & Kabir, Humayun & Miah, M. A. Monayem, 2021. "Growth And Forecasting Of Badc And National Boro Seed Production In Bangladesh: An Empirical Study," Bangladesh Journal of Agricultural Economics, Bangladesh Agricultural University, vol. 42(2), December.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:bdbjaf:320372
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.320372
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Haque, M. E. & Hossain, M. I. & Rahman, K. M. M., 2004. "Searching For The Best Fitting Deterministic Model For Innovative Growth Analysis And Forecasting Of Rice Production In Bangladesh," Bangladesh Journal of Agricultural Economics, Bangladesh Agricultural University, vol. 27(1), pages 1-21, June.
    2. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
    3. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    4. Baksh, Md. Elahi & Islam, M. Serajul & Talukder, Rezaul Karim, 2005. "Growth Analysis On Changing Wheat Production In Bangladesh," Bangladesh Journal of Agricultural Economics, Bangladesh Agricultural University, vol. 28(1-2), pages 1-12, December.
    5. Rahman, N.M.F, 2010. "Forecasting of boro rice production in Bangladesh: An ARIMA approach," Journal of the Bangladesh Agricultural University, Bangladesh Agricultural University Research System (BAURES), vol. 8.
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