Growth Analysis On Changing Wheat Production In Bangladesh

To estimate the growth rates of wheat in Bangladesh in terms of area, production, and yield, and to determine the factors responsible for changing production and yield time series data were used for the period of 1975-76 to 1998-99. The growth rates were estimated by using exponential production function and the determinants of yield levels were examined using Cobb-Douglas production function. During the period 1976-85, the growth rates of area, production and yield were relatively higher. After 1985, the growth rates were poor and stagnant. Then again after 1995, an increasing growth rate trend was found both in greater Dinajpur and Rangpur districts and in Bangladesh. However, the average growth rates of area, production and yield were 5.82, 6.02 and 0.55 percent respectively in Bangladesh. During the whole study period, wheat production increased by 787% (1.69 MT), contributed by area (58%) and yield (36%). Wheat yields were affected by several natural, physical and economic factors. Irrigated area coverage, price of the previous year and area coverage by modern varieties had positive influence on yield increase in Dinajpur. But in Rangpur, only price of the previous year had positive and significant effect on yield. So for continuing the increasing growth rate policy should be taken to keep higher price of wheat, expansion of more area under new high yielding varieties and irrigation.