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The Current Account, Monetary Policy, Market Sentiment And The Real Exchange Rate: Some Implications For The Farm Sector

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  • O'Mara, L. Paul
  • Wallace, N.A.
  • Meshios, Helen

Abstract

The real effective value of the Australian dollar declined sharply between early 1985 and September 1986. 'Market fundamentals' associated with the deterioration in Australia's terms of trade and current account, and rising foreign debt levels are the commonly cited explanation for the decline. However, several other shorter term influences may have also contributed. Theoretical and empirical analysis indicates that market fundamentals might explain, at most, 20 percentage points of the 37 per cent decline in the rate over this period. Thus, a significant real appreciation would be expected over the medium term prior to, and quite independently of, any recovery in Australia's terms of trade in general or in world farm commodity prices in particular.

Suggested Citation

  • O'Mara, L. Paul & Wallace, N.A. & Meshios, Helen, 1987. "The Current Account, Monetary Policy, Market Sentiment And The Real Exchange Rate: Some Implications For The Farm Sector," Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 31(3), pages 1-23, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:ajaeau:22272
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.22272
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Robert G. Trevor & Stephen G. Donald, 1986. "Exchange Rate Regimes and the Volatility of Financial Prices: The Australian Case," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp8608, Reserve Bank of Australia.
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    7. L.P. O'Mara & N.A. Wallace & Helen Meshios, 1987. "The Current Account, Monetary Policy, Market Sentiment And The Real Exchange Rate: Some Implications For The Farm Sector," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 31(3), pages 219-241, December.
    8. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-1176, December.
    9. R.G. Gregory, 1976. "Some Implications Of The Growth Of The Mineral Sector," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 20(2), pages 71-91, August.
    10. Gray, Malcolm R & Turnovsky, Stephen J, 1979. "The Stability of Exchange Rate Dynamics under Perfect Myopic Foresight," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 20(3), pages 643-660, October.
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    12. repec:bla:ecorec:v:0:y:1986:i:0:p:4-11 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. repec:bla:ecorec:v:0:y:1986:i:0:p:58-66 is not listed on IDEAS
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    Cited by:

    1. O'Mara, L. Paul, 1988. "The Medium Term Outlook for the Real Exchange Rate and Real Interest Rates," Review of Marketing and Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 56(01), pages 1-8, April.
    2. Hogan, Lindsay I. & Sterland, Barry, 1991. "Inflation, Monetary Policy and Australia's Primary Industries," 1991 Conference (35th), February 11-14, 1991, Armidale, Australia 145905, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    3. Tie, Graeme & Bartley, Scott W. & O'Mara, L. Paul, 1994. "Agriculture in an open market economy," 1994 Conference (38th), February 8-10, 1994, Wellington, New Zealand 147927, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    4. Jacqueline Dwyer & Christopher Kent & Andrew Pease, 1994. "Exchange Rate Pass‐Through: Testing the Small Country Assumption for Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 70(211), pages 408-423, December.

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