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Activist Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Overshooting: The Deutsche Mark/Dollar Rate

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  • David H. Papell

Abstract

After a decade of generalized floating, it is clear that bilateral exchange rates exhibit more variability than the economic aggregates; relative prices, incomes, and money supplies, that generally comprise the fundamentals of theories of exchange rate determination. Dornbush's over-shooting hypothesis is the best known explanation of this phenomenon. This paper shows that accommodative monetary policy (with respect to prices) has the potential to cause the economy to switch from exchange rate overshooting to undershooting. Using constrained maximum likelihood methods, the model is estimated for Germany and the United States. The results provide strong evidence in support of the overshooting hypothesis for the Deutsche Mark/Dollar exchange rate.

Suggested Citation

  • David H. Papell, 1983. "Activist Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Overshooting: The Deutsche Mark/Dollar Rate," NBER Working Papers 1195, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:1195
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    1. Papell, David H., 1985. "Activist monetary policy, imperfect capital mobility, and the overshooting hypothesis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(3-4), pages 219-240, May.
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    1. Taylor, John B., 1985. "International coordination in the design of macroeconomic policy rules," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 28(1-2), pages 53-81.
    2. Khumalo, Zitsile Zamantungwa & Eita, Joel Hinaunye & Choga, Ireen, 2020. "An Empirical Test of Real Exchange Rate Overshooting in Selected African Countries," MPRA Paper 101303, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Papell, David H., 1985. "Activist monetary policy, imperfect capital mobility, and the overshooting hypothesis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(3-4), pages 219-240, May.
    4. Narayan, Seema, 2013. "A structural VAR model of the Fiji Islands," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 238-244.
    5. David H. Papell, 1984. "Monetarist Monetary Policy, Exchange Risk, and Exchange Rate Variability," NBER Working Papers 1306, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Campos, M. Isabel & Herrera, Julio & Jimenez-Ridruejo, Zenon, 1999. "Censured Exchange Rates in a Discrete Time Target Zones Model: The Spanish Peseta/Deutsche Mark Case," ERSA conference papers ersa99pa183, European Regional Science Association.

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