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Households’ welfare analyses of the impact of global change on water resources in South Africa

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  • Juana, James S.
  • Strzepek, Kenneth M.
  • Kirsten, Johann F.

Abstract

Most of the climate change models for South Africa predict a reduction in freshwater availability by 2050. Population growth is projected at 3% per annum, implying increased domestic water use. In addition to these factors, the concern for ecological sustainability and increased water pollution due to increased industrial, mining and agricultural activities, water availability for sectoral production activities is expected to decline. This decline has an impact on sectoral output, value added and households’ welfare. Using a computable general equilibrium approach, this study investigates the possible impact of global change on households’ welfare. The simulation results show that water scarcity due to global change can potentially lead to a general deterioration in households’ welfare. The poor households, whose incomes are adversely impacted, are the most vulnerable to the consequences of the impact of global change on water resources in South Africa. This vulnerability can only be reduced if welfare policies that maintain food consumption levels for the least and low-income households are implemented.

Suggested Citation

  • Juana, James S. & Strzepek, Kenneth M. & Kirsten, Johann F., 2008. "Households’ welfare analyses of the impact of global change on water resources in South Africa," Agrekon, Agricultural Economics Association of South Africa (AEASA), vol. 47(3), pages 1-18, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:agreko:44026
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.44026
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    2. Thurlow, James & van Seventer, Dirk Ernst, 2002. "A standard computable general equilibrium model for South Africa," TMD discussion papers 100, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
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    Cited by:

    1. Dinar, Ariel, 2012. "Economy-wide implications of direct and indirect policy interventions in the water sector: lessons from recent work and future research needs," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6068, The World Bank.
    2. Todd Sanderson & Fredoun Z. Ahmadi‐Esfahani, 2009. "Testing Comparative Advantage in Australian Broadacre Agriculture Under Climate Change: Theoretical and Empirical Models," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 28(4), pages 346-354, December.
    3. Montaud, Jean-Marc & Pecastaing, Nicolas & Tankari, Mahamadou, 2017. "Potential socio-economic implications of future climate change and variability for Nigerien agriculture: A countrywide dynamic CGE-Microsimulation analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 128-142.
    4. Femi E. Hounnou & Houinsou Dedehouanou & Afio Zannou & Johanes Agbahey & Gauthier Biaou, 2019. "Economy-Wide Effects of Climate Change in Benin: An Applied General Equilibrium Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(23), pages 1-15, November.
    5. Bezabih, Mintewab & Chambwera, Muyeye & Stage, Jesper, 2010. "Climate Change, Total Factor Productivity, and the Tanzanian Economy: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis," RFF Working Paper Series dp-10-14-efd, Resources for the Future.

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