IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/pugtwp/332067.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The EU-Ukraine Trade Liberalization: How much do the costs of tariff elimination matter?

Author

Listed:
  • Frey, Miriam
  • Olekseyuk, Zoryana

Abstract

The establishment of the currently negotiated Free Trade Agreement (FTA) between the EU and Ukraine is the next significant step towards Ukraine’s deeper integration into the world economy, widely expected to result in additional welfare gains. As developing countries face some costs associated with trade liberalization, this paper contributes to the literature by analyzing the effects of the EU-Ukraine FTA taking into account the loss of tariff revenues as well as the changed economic conditions after Ukraine’s accession to the WTO in 2008. In particular, we calculate the effects of a unilateral tariff elimination in a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model for Ukraine simulating three scenarios reflecting different means to compensate for the loss in tariff revenues. It turns out to be important to take these costs into consideration while modeling trade liberalization, as the results vary significantly across the scenarios. In general, we find that tariff elimination has only a small impact on the country’s welfare because of the already strongly reduced tariff rates after Ukraine’s WTO accession. The effects can even be negative if the country tries to refinance the trade liberalization costs by means of tax policy. According to our simulations the most welfare enhancing option would be the provision of financial support by the EU, which is in fact suggested in the latest European Parliament resolution.

Suggested Citation

  • Frey, Miriam & Olekseyuk, Zoryana, 2011. "The EU-Ukraine Trade Liberalization: How much do the costs of tariff elimination matter?," Conference papers 332067, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:pugtwp:332067
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/332067/files/5683.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lofgren, Hans & El-Said, Moataz & Robinson, Sherman, 1999. "Trade liberalization and complementary domestic policies: a rural-urban general equilibrium analysis of Morocco," TMD discussion papers 41, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    2. Thurlow, James & van Seventer, Dirk Ernst, 2002. "A standard computable general equilibrium model for South Africa," TMD discussion papers 100, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sassi, Maria & Cardaci, Alberto, 2013. "Impact of rainfall pattern on cereal market and food security in Sudan: Stochastic approach and CGE model," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 321-331.
    2. Salim Araji & Vladimir Hlasny & Layal Mansour Ichrakieh & Vito Intini, 2019. "Targeting debt in Lebanon: a structural macro-econometric model," Middle East Development Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(1), pages 75-104, January.
    3. Rashid Hassan & James Thurlow, 2011. "Macro–micro feedback links of water management in South Africa: CGE analyses of selected policy regimes," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 42(2), pages 235-247, March.
    4. Aliaga Lordemann, Jevier & Villegas Quino, Horacio, 2011. "Poverty, Indigence and Public Investment in Bolivia: A Simulation Analysis," Documentos de trabajo 5/2011, Instituto de Investigaciones Socio-Económicas (IISEC), Universidad Católica Boliviana.
    5. Sassi, Maria & Cardaci, Alberto, 2012. "Impact of climate change on wheat market and food security in Sudan: stochastic approach and CGE model and CGE Model," 2012 First Congress, June 4-5, 2012, Trento, Italy 124110, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA).
    6. Ramos Mabugu & Margaret Chitiga, 2009. "Liberalising Trade In South Africa: A Survey Of Computable General Equilibrium Studies," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 77(3), pages 445-464, September.
    7. Nicolas Hérault, 2005. "Trade Liberalisation, Poverty and Inequality in South Africa: A CGE-Microsimulation Analysis," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2005n17, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    8. Juana, James S. & Strzepek, Kenneth M. & Kirsten, Johann F., 2008. "Households’ welfare analyses of the impact of global change on water resources in South Africa," Agrekon, Agricultural Economics Association of South Africa (AEASA), vol. 47(3), pages 1-18, September.
    9. Acharya, Sanjaya, 2011. "Making unilateral trade liberalisation beneficial to the poor," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 60-71, June.
    10. Nicolas Hérault, 2009. "Les apports de la micro-simulation aux modèles d'équilibre général : application au cas de l'Afrique du Sud," Economie & Prévision, La Documentation Française, vol. 0(1), pages 123-135.
    11. Fida Karam, 2008. "When Migrant Remittances Are Not Everlasting, How Can Morocco Make Up?," Working Papers hal-00304885, HAL.
    12. Hildegunn Ekroll Stokke & Jørn Rattsø, 2004. "Ramsey model of barriers to growth and skill-biased income distribution in South Africa," Working Paper Series 4604, Department of Economics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, revised 07 Feb 2005.
    13. Stewart Ngandu, 2009. "The impact of exchange rate movements on employment: the economy-wide effect of a rand appreciation," Development Southern Africa, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(1), pages 111-129.
    14. Juan Antonio García-Cebro & Alejandro Quintela-Del-Río & Ramón Varela-Santamaría, 2023. "Welfare and sectoral productivity shifts in a small open economy with imported agricultural inputs: The case of Sub-Saharan Africa," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 22(3), pages 353-376, September.
    15. Narayanan, Sudha & Gulati, Ashok, 2002. "Globalization and the smallholders," MTID discussion papers 50, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    16. P.A. Black, 2004. "Economic Impact Analysis: Methodological Note," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 72(5), pages 1069-1075, December.
    17. Julius MUKARATI & Godswill MAKOMBE, 2017. "Modeling the Distributive Effects of an Agricultural Shock on Household Income in South Africa: A Sam Multiplier Decomposition and Structurel Path Analysis," Journal of Economics Bibliography, KSP Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 43-55, March.
    18. Sahlén, Linda, 2009. "Essays on Environmental and Development Economics - Public Policy, Resource Prices and Global Warming," Umeå Economic Studies 762, Umeå University, Department of Economics.
    19. Stewart Ngandu, 2008. "Exchange Rates And Employment," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 76(s2), pages 205-221, August.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:pugtwp:332067. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/gtpurus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.