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The impact of exchange rate movements on employment: the economy-wide effect of a rand appreciation

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  • Stewart Ngandu

Abstract

There has been some debate on the impact of exchange rate volatility and levels in South Africa. This is a particular concern as South Africa needs to dramatically expand sustainable employment and at the same time raise value-added in its production of goods and services. These are not necessarily complementary objectives for a mineral-exporting economy. Using a computable general equilibrium model, with the appreciation induced by a commodity price boom, this paper analyses the possible impact of an appreciation of the rand on employment. The intention is to identify the impact on both aggregate employment and sectoral output. Although the economy does well as a result of the commodity boom, the results indicate the potential for 'Dutch Disease'-type effects. Almost all traded sectors are negatively affected, while the non-traded sectors experience a boost as a result of the appreciation.

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  • Stewart Ngandu, 2009. "The impact of exchange rate movements on employment: the economy-wide effect of a rand appreciation," Development Southern Africa, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(1), pages 111-129.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:deveza:v:26:y:2009:i:1:p:111-129
    DOI: 10.1080/03768350802640180
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    1. William H. Branson & James P. Love, 1987. "The Real Exchange Rate and Employment in U.S. Manufacturing: State and Regional Results," NBER Working Papers 2435, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Jeffrey D. Sachs & Andrew M. Warner, 1995. "Natural Resource Abundance and Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 5398, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. William H. Branson & James P. Love, 1986. "Dollar Appreciation and Manufacturing Employment and Output," NBER Working Papers 1972, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Thurlow, James & van Seventer, Dirk Ernst, 2002. "A standard computable general equilibrium model for South Africa," TMD discussion papers 100, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
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    1. Chama CHIPETA & Daniel Francois MEYER, 2018. "Trade Openness, FDI and Exchange Rate Effects on Job Creation in South Africa's Tradable Sectors," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 10(4), pages 197-212.
    2. Chipeta Chama & Meyer Daniel Francois & Muzindutsi Paul-Francois, 2017. "The Effect of Exchange Rate Movements and Economic Growth on Job Creation," Studia Universitatis Babeș-Bolyai Oeconomica, Sciendo, vol. 62(2), pages 20-41, August.
    3. Ranjini L. Thaver & E. M. Ekanayake, 2010. "The Impact Of Apartheid And International Sanctions On South Africa'S Import Demand Function: An Empirical Analysis," The International Journal of Business and Finance Research, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 4(4), pages 11-22.
    4. Chama Chipeta, 2022. "Analysing The Employment Effects Of The Exchange Rate, Foreign Direct Investment And Trade Openness On South Africa’S Non-Tradable Sectors," JOURNAL STUDIA UNIVERSITATIS BABES-BOLYAI NEGOTIA, Babes-Bolyai University, Faculty of Business.

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