IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/agr/journl/vxxiiy2015i4(605)p33-44.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Fuel Price Volatility and Asymmetric Transmission of Crude Oil Price Changes to Fuel Prices

Author

Listed:
  • Iuliana ZLATCU

    (Bucharest University of Economic Studies, Romania)

  • Matei KUBINSCHI

    (Bucharest University of Economic Studies, Romania)

  • Dinu BARNEA

    (Bucharest University of Economic Studies, Romania)

Abstract

In recent years, retail fuel prices have raised the question of whether they are anomalous in relation with the crude oil prices. This paper aims to study the price volatility and the response of retail fuel prices to changes in international crude oil prices on the Romanian fuel market and on four other markets, namely Germany, France, Poland and Czech Rep., during the period between 2008 and 2014. By estimating univariate and multivariate GARCH models, as well as applying an MTAR threshold cointegration approach, the study finds similar patterns across the aforementioned markets. Our results show that the conditional volatility reached its peak during the outbreak of the financial crisis, together with an abrupt fall in time-varying correlations, which offer support for the asymmetric transmission hypothesis. Finally, the cointegration analysis detects some signs of asymmetric adjustments, supporting the hypothesis of a faster adjustment above the threshold in most cases.

Suggested Citation

  • Iuliana ZLATCU & Matei KUBINSCHI & Dinu BARNEA, 2015. "Fuel Price Volatility and Asymmetric Transmission of Crude Oil Price Changes to Fuel Prices," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(4(605), W), pages 33-44, Winter.
    • Handle: RePEc:agr:journl:v:xxii:y:2015:i:4(605):p:33-44
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://store.ectap.ro/articole/1128.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://www.ectap.ro/articol.php?id=1128&rid=121
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bolotova, Yuliya & Connor, John M. & Miller, Douglas J., 2008. "The impact of collusion on price behavior: Empirical results from two recent cases," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 1290-1307, November.
    2. Enders, Walter & Siklos, Pierre L, 2001. "Cointegration and Threshold Adjustment," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(2), pages 166-176, April.
    3. Colin Bermingham & Derry O'Brien, 2011. "Testing for Asymmetric Pricing Behaviour in Irish and UK Petrol and Diesel Markets," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 1-26.
    4. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    5. Luc Bauwens & Sébastien Laurent & Jeroen V. K. Rombouts, 2006. "Multivariate GARCH models: a survey," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(1), pages 79-109, January.
    6. Grasso, Margherita & Manera, Matteo, 2007. "Asymmetric error correction models for the oil-gasoline price relationship," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 156-177, January.
    7. Nathan S. Balke & Stephen P. A. Brown & Mine K. Yücel, 1998. "Crude oil and gasoline prices: an asymmetric relationship?," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Q 1, pages 2-11.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kubinschi Matei & Barnea Dinu & Zlatcu Iuliana, 2019. "Estimating fuel price volatility and spillover effects across different European countries," Management & Marketing, Sciendo, vol. 14(4), pages 419-430, December.
    2. Ayben Koy, 2022. "Regime Switching Mechanism during Energy Futures Price Bubbles," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 12(1), pages 373-382.
    3. Ayben Koy, 2017. "Modelling Nonlinear Dynamics of Oil Futures Market," Econometric Research in Finance, SGH Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis, vol. 2(1), pages 23-42, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. repec:agr:journl:v:4(605):y:2015:i:4(605):p:33-44 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Karagiannis, Stelios & Panagopoulos, Yannis & Vlamis, Prodromos, 2015. "Are unleaded gasoline and diesel price adjustments symmetric? A comparison of the four largest EU retail fuel markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 281-291.
    3. Zacharias Bragoudakis & Dimitrios Sideris, 2019. "Asymmetric price adjustment and the effects of structural reforms in a low income environment: the case of the gasoline market in Greece," Working Papers 274, Bank of Greece.
    4. Bragoudakis, Zacharias & Degiannakis, Stavros & Filis, George, 2019. "Oil and pump prices: Is there any asymmetry in the Greek oil downstream sector?," MPRA Paper 95407, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Al-Gudhea, Salim & Kenc, Turalay & Dibooglu, Sel, 2007. "Do retail gasoline prices rise more readily than they fall?: A threshold cointegration approach," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 59(6), pages 560-574.
    6. Taner SEKMEN & Seher Gülşah TOPUZ, 2021. "Asymmetric Oil Price and Exchange Rate Pass-Through in the Turkish Oil-Gasoline Markets," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 74-93, June.
    7. Asane-Otoo, Emmanuel & Schneider, Jan, 2015. "Retail fuel price adjustment in Germany: A threshold cointegration approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 1-10.
    8. Theis Lange, 2009. "First and second order non-linear cointegration models," CREATES Research Papers 2009-04, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    9. Fasoula, Evanthia & Schweikert, Karsten, 2018. "Price regulations and price adjustment dynamics: Evidence from the Austrian retail fuel market," Hohenheim Discussion Papers in Business, Economics and Social Sciences 08-2018, University of Hohenheim, Faculty of Business, Economics and Social Sciences.
    10. Robert Socha, 2014. "Asymetria relacji cen paliw płynnych w Polsce i cen ropy naftowej," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 5, pages 133-160.
    11. María Torrado & Álvaro Escribano, 2020. "European gasoline markets: price transmission asymmetries in mean and variance," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(42), pages 4621-4638, September.
    12. da Silva, André Suriane & Vasconcelos, Cláudio Roberto Fóffano & Vasconcelos, Silvinha Pinto & de Mattos, Rogério Silva, 2014. "Symmetric transmission of prices in the retail gasoline market in Brazil," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 11-21.
    13. Katarzyna Leszkiewicz-Kędzior & Aleksander Welfe, 2014. "Asymmetric Price Adjustments in the Fuel Market," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 6(2), pages 105-127, June.
    14. Perdiguero-García, Jordi, 2013. "Symmetric or asymmetric oil prices? A meta-analysis approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 389-397.
    15. SILVESTRINI, Andrea & VEREDAS, David, 2005. "Temporal aggregation of univariate linear time series models," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2005059, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    16. Asai, Manabu & McAleer, Michael, 2015. "Leverage and feedback effects on multifactor Wishart stochastic volatility for option pricing," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 187(2), pages 436-446.
    17. M. Hashem Pesaran & Paolo Zaffaroni, 2004. "Model Averaging and Value-at-Risk Based Evaluation of Large Multi Asset Volatility Models for Risk Management," CESifo Working Paper Series 1358, CESifo.
    18. Bagnai, Alberto & Mongeau Ospina, Christian Alexander, 2015. "Long- and short-run price asymmetries and hysteresis in the Italian gasoline market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 41-50.
    19. Pierre Giot & Sébastien Laurent, 2003. "Value-at-risk for long and short trading positions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(6), pages 641-663.
    20. Bastianin, Andrea & Galeotti, Marzio & Manera, Matteo, 2014. "Forecasting the oil–gasoline price relationship: Do asymmetries help?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(S1), pages 44-56.
    21. Sucarrat, Genaro & Grønneberg, Steffen & Escribano, Alvaro, 2016. "Estimation and inference in univariate and multivariate log-GARCH-X models when the conditional density is unknown," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 582-594.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:agr:journl:v:xxii:y:2015:i:4(605):p:33-44. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Mircea Dinu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/agerrea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.