IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/afc/cliome/v18y2024i2p405-451.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Influenza pandemics and macroeconomic fluctuations 1871–2016

Author

Listed:
  • Fraser Summerfield

    (Department of Economics, St Francis Xavier University, Antigonish, NS, B2G 2W5, Canada)

  • Livio Di Matteo

    (Department of Economics, Lakehead University, 955 Oliver Road, Thunder Bay, ON, P7B5E1, Canada)

Abstract

This paper documents the short-run macroeconomic impacts of influenza pandemics across 16 countries spanning 1871–2016 using the Jordà–Schularick–Taylor Macrohistory Database and the Human Mortality Database. We find pandemic-induced mortality contributed meaningfully to business cycle fluctuations in the post 1870 era. We identify negative causal impacts on the cyclical component of GDP using pandemics to instrument for working-age mortality. The analysis of short-run economic outcomes extends literature dominated by long-run economic growth outcomes and case studies of several specific health shocks such as the Black Death, Spanish Flu or COVID-19. Our findings illustrate that less catastrophic pandemics still have important economic implications.

Suggested Citation

  • Fraser Summerfield & Livio Di Matteo, 2024. "Influenza pandemics and macroeconomic fluctuations 1871–2016," Cliometrica, Journal of Historical Economics and Econometric History, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC), vol. 18(2), pages 405-451, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:afc:cliome:v:18:y:2024:i:2:p:405-451
    DOI: 10.1007/s11698-023-00269-w
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11698-023-00269-w
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to journal subscribers
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11698-023-00269-w?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alfani, Guido & Murphy, Tommy E., 2017. "Plague and Lethal Epidemics in the Pre-Industrial World," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 77(1), pages 314-343, March.
    2. Abadie, Alberto, 2003. "Semiparametric instrumental variable estimation of treatment response models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 113(2), pages 231-263, April.
    3. Bloom, David E. & Canning, David & Sevilla, Jaypee, 2004. "The Effect of Health on Economic Growth: A Production Function Approach," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 1-13, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Fraser Summerfield & Livio Di Matteo, 2021. "Influenza Pandemics and Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Recent Economic History," Working Papers 210002, Canadian Centre for Health Economics.
    2. Elias Einiö & Henry G. Overman, 2016. "The (Displacement) Effects of Spatially Targeted Enterprise Initiatives: Evidence from UK LEGI," SERC Discussion Papers 0191, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    3. Stefano Bosi & Thierry Laurent, 2008. "Health, Growth and Welfare: Why Put Public Money on Medical R&D?," Documents de recherche 08-18, Centre d'Études des Politiques Économiques (EPEE), Université d'Evry Val d'Essonne.
    4. Leopoldo Fergusson & Carlos Molina, 2020. "Facebook Causes Protests," HiCN Working Papers 323, Households in Conflict Network.
    5. Doyle, Joseph J., 2013. "Causal effects of foster care: An instrumental-variables approach," Children and Youth Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 35(7), pages 1143-1151.
    6. Francis Mitrou & Ha Trong Nguyen & Huong Thu Le & Stephen R. Zubrick, 2024. "The causal impact of mental health on tobacco and alcohol consumption: an instrumental variables approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 66(3), pages 1287-1310, March.
    7. Nguezet, Paul Martin Dontsop & Diagne, Aliou & Okoruwa, Victor Olusegun & Ojehomon, Vivian, 2011. "Impact of Improved Rice Technology (NERICA varieties) on Income and Poverty among Rice Farming Households in Nigeria: A Local Average Treatment Effect (LATE) Approach," Quarterly Journal of International Agriculture, Humboldt-Universitaat zu Berlin, vol. 50(3), pages 1-25.
    8. Okada, Keisuke, 2012. "The effects of female HIV/AIDS status on fertility and child health in Cambodia," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(5), pages 560-570.
    9. Sadushe Loxha & Degjoni Rudina, 2022. "The Effect of Care Quality by Managing the Institute of Anatomy Pathology in Kosovo," European Journal of Natural Sciences and Medicine Articles, Revistia Research and Publishing, vol. 5, July - De.
    10. Karen Clay & Werner Troesken & Michael Haines, 2014. "Lead and Mortality," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 96(3), pages 458-470, July.
    11. Kaspar Wuthrich & Ying Zhu, 2019. "Omitted variable bias of Lasso-based inference methods: A finite sample analysis," Papers 1903.08704, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2021.
    12. Muhamadu Awal Kindzeka Wirajing & Tii N. Nchofoung & Roger Tsafack Nanfosso, 2024. "Inclusive education and labour productivity: The case of Sub‐Saharan African countries," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 92(4), pages 498-523, December.
    13. Agboh-Noameshie, Afiavi R. & Kinkingninhoun-Medagbe, Florent M. & Diagne, Aliou, 2008. "Gendered impact of NERICA Adoption on Farmers’ Production and Income in Central Benin," 2007 Second International Conference, August 20-22, 2007, Accra, Ghana 52082, African Association of Agricultural Economists (AAAE).
    14. Martin Huber, 2019. "An introduction to flexible methods for policy evaluation," Papers 1910.00641, arXiv.org.
    15. Naeem Ur Rehman Khattak & Jangraiz Khan, 2012. "Does Health Accelerate Economic Growth in Pakistan?," International Journal of Asian Social Science, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 2(4), pages 506-512.
    16. Madsen, Jakob B. & Robertson, Peter E. & Ye, Longfeng, 2024. "Lives versus livelihoods in the middle ages: The impact of the plague on trade over 400 years," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    17. Godlonton, Susan & Okeke, Edward N., 2016. "Does a ban on informal health providers save lives? Evidence from Malawi," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 112-132.
    18. Akram, Naeem, 2009. "Short run and long run dynamics of impact of health status on economic growth Evidence from Pakistan," MPRA Paper 15454, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Lutz Sager, 2016. "Estimating the effect of air pollution on road safety using atmospheric temperature," GRI Working Papers 251, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.
    20. Schultz, T. Paul, 2010. "Population and Health Policies," Handbook of Development Economics, in: Dani Rodrik & Mark Rosenzweig (ed.), Handbook of Development Economics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 0, pages 4785-4881, Elsevier.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Pandemics · Business cycles · Mortality · GDP fuctuations · Health shocks;

    JEL classification:

    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • N10 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - General, International, or Comparative
    • N30 - Economic History - - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy - - - General, International, or Comparative

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:afc:cliome:v:18:y:2024:i:2:p:405-451. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/afcccea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.