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Overview of EMF 24 Policy Scenarios

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  • Allen A. Fawcett, Leon C. Clarke, Sebastian Rausch, and John P. Weyant

Abstract

The Energy Modeling Forum 24 study included a set of policy scenarios designed to compare economy wide market-based and sectoral regulatory approaches of potential U.S. climate policy. Models from seven teams participated in this part of the study assessing economy-wide cap-and-trade climate policy and sectoral policies in the transportation and electric sector in terms of potential greenhouse gas emissions reductions, economic cost, and energy systems implications. This paper presents an overview of the results from the U.S. policy scenarios, and provides insights into the comparison of results from the participating models. In particular, various metrics were used to compare the model results including allowance price, the efficient frontier, consumption loss, GDP loss, and equivalent variation. We find that the choice of economic metric is an important factor in the comparison of model results. Among the insights, we note that the carbon price should cautiously be considered when other non-cap sectoral policies affecting emissions are assumed in tandem. We also find that a transportation sector policy is consistently shown to be inefficient compared to an economy-wide cap-and-trade policy with a comparable level of emissions reductions.
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  • Allen A. Fawcett, Leon C. Clarke, Sebastian Rausch, and John P. Weyant, 2014. "Overview of EMF 24 Policy Scenarios," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I).
  • Handle: RePEc:aen:journl:ej35-si1-03
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    1. Ian W.H. Parry & Roberton C. Williams III & Lawrence H. Goulder, 2002. "When Can Carbon Abatement Policies Increase Welfare? The Fundamental Role of Distorted Factor Markets," Chapters, in: Lawrence H. Goulder (ed.), Environmental Policy Making in Economies with Prior Tax Distortions, chapter 25, pages 471-503, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    2. Lawrence H. Goulder & Ian W.H. Parry & Roberton C. Williams III & Dallas Burtraw, 2002. "The Cost-Effectiveness of Alternative Instruments for Environmental Protection in a Second-Best Setting," Chapters, in: Lawrence H. Goulder (ed.), Environmental Policy Making in Economies with Prior Tax Distortions, chapter 27, pages 523-554, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    3. Leon E. Clarke, Allen A. Fawcett, John P. Weyant, James McFarland, Vaibhav Chaturvedi, and Yuyu Zhou, 2014. "Technology and U.S. Emissions Reductions Goals: Results of the EMF 24 Modeling Exercise," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I).
    4. Gilbert E. Metcalf, 2009. "Market-Based Policy Options to Control U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 23(2), pages 5-27, Spring.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bistline, John E.T. & Brown, Maxwell & Siddiqui, Sauleh A. & Vaillancourt, Kathleen, 2020. "Electric sector impacts of renewable policy coordination: A multi-model study of the North American energy system," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    2. Rausch, Sebastian & Yonezawa, Hidemichi, 2023. "Green technology policies versus carbon pricing: An intergenerational perspective," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    3. Marshall A. Wise, Haewon C. McJeon, Katherine V. Calvin, Leon E. Clarke, and Page Kyle, 2014. "Assessing the Interactions among U.S. Climate Policy, Biomass Energy, and Agricultural Trade," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I).
    4. Bistline, John & Santen, Nidhi & Young, David, 2019. "The economic geography of variable renewable energy and impacts of trade formulations for renewable mandates," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 79-96.
    5. van der Zwaan, Bob & Kober, Tom & Calderon, Silvia & Clarke, Leon & Daenzer, Katie & Kitous, Alban & Labriet, Maryse & Lucena, André F.P. & Octaviano, Claudia & Di Sbroiavacca, Nicolas, 2016. "Energy technology roll-out for climate change mitigation: A multi-model study for Latin America," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 526-542.
    6. Ryan Rafaty & Geoffroy Dolphin & Felix Pretis, 2020. "Carbon pricing and the elasticity of CO2 emissions," Working Papers EPRG2035, Energy Policy Research Group, Cambridge Judge Business School, University of Cambridge.
    7. Huntington, Hillard G., 2021. "Model evaluation for policy insights: Reflections on the forum process," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    8. Allen A. Fawcett, Leon E. Clarke, and John P. Weyant, 2014. "Introduction to EMF 24," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I).
    9. Weber, Juliane & Heinrichs, Heidi Ursula & Gillessen, Bastian & Schumann, Diana & Hörsch, Jonas & Brown, Tom & Witthaut, Dirk, 2019. "Counter-intuitive behaviour of energy system models under CO2 caps and prices," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 22-30.
    10. Sugandha D. Tuladhar, Sebastian Mankowski, and Paul Bernstein, 2014. "Interaction Effects of Market-Based and Command-and-Control Policies," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I).
    11. Wilkerson, Jordan T. & Leibowicz, Benjamin D. & Turner, Delavane D. & Weyant, John P., 2015. "Comparison of integrated assessment models: Carbon price impacts on U.S. energy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 18-31.
    12. Kalsbach, Oliver & Rausch, Sebastian, 2024. "Pricing carbon in a multi-sector economy with social discounting," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    13. Tapia-Ahumada, Karen & Octaviano, Claudia & Rausch, Sebastian & Pérez-Arriaga, Ignacio, 2015. "Modeling intermittent renewable electricity technologies in general equilibrium models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 242-262.
    14. Landis, Florian & Rausch, Sebastian, 2017. "Deep transformations of the energy sector: A model of technology investment choice," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(S1), pages 136-147.
    15. Cullenward, Danny & T. Wilkerson, Jordan & Wara, Michael & Weyant, John P., 2016. "Dynamically estimating the distributional impacts of U.S. climate policy with NEMS: A case study of the Climate Protection Act of 2013," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 303-318.
    16. Lomborg, Bjorn, 2020. "Welfare in the 21st century: Increasing development, reducing inequality, the impact of climate change, and the cost of climate policies," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).

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    • F0 - International Economics - - General

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