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Transporting Russian Gas to Western Europe A Simulation Analysis

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  • Christian von Hirschhausen
  • Berit Meinhart
  • Ferdinand Pavel

Abstract

This paper examines the options of transporting Russian gas to Western Europe, an issue that has thus far been dominated by a single transit country, Ukraine, which has recently witnessed substantial political turmoil. The completion of a new transit corridor through Belarus in 1999, the so-called Yamal-Europe pipeline, has modified the situation profoundly. The paper develops a model of different strategies of Russia and Ukraine, and derives the analytical solution for Russian gas exports to Western Europe, prices, and the expected profits for the players; we also calibrate numerical results and perform simulations. It turns out that Ukraine suffers a loss from the market entry of Belarus, RussiaÕs profits significantly increase, and Russia has an incentive to expand its gas transit capacity through Belarus further. The gas price for West European importers falls in the case of cooperative behavior of Russia and Ukraine, and/or new pipeline construction through Belarus. However, both developments would also imply a higher European import dependence on Russian gas.

Suggested Citation

  • Christian von Hirschhausen & Berit Meinhart & Ferdinand Pavel, 2005. "Transporting Russian Gas to Western Europe A Simulation Analysis," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 49-68.
    • Handle: RePEc:aen:journl:2005v26-02-a03
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    Cited by:

    1. Lise, Wietze & Hobbs, Benjamin F. & van Oostvoorn, Frits, 2008. "Natural gas corridors between the EU and its main suppliers: Simulation results with the dynamic GASTALE model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(6), pages 1890-1906, June.
    2. Finn Roar Aune, Rolf Golombek , Arild Moe, Knut Einar Rosendahl and Hilde Hallre Le Tissier, 2015. "Liberalizing Russian Gas Markets - An Economic Analysis," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Adelman S).
    3. Ulrich Oberndorfer & Dirk Ulbricht & Janina Ketterer, 2007. "Lost in Transmission? Stock Market Impacts of the 2006 European Gas Crisis," ifo Working Paper Series 41, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    4. Bolle, Friedel & Ruban, Rostyslav, 2007. "Competition and Security of Supply: Let Russia Buy into the European Gas Market!," Discussion Papers 258, European University Viadrina Frankfurt (Oder), Department of Business Administration and Economics.
    5. repec:ers:journl:v:xv:y:2012:i:sie:p:31-46 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Dominique Finon & Catherine Locatelli, 2006. "L'interdépendance gazière de la Russie et de l'Union européenne : quel équilibre entre le marché et la géopolitique ?," Post-Print halshs-00119602, HAL.
    7. Eirik Lund Sagen & Marina Tsygankova, 2006. "Russian Natural Gas Exports to Europe. Effects of Russian gas market reforms and the rising market power of Gazprom," Discussion Papers 445, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    8. Christian von Hirschhausen & Claudia Kemfert & Fabian Praeger, 2020. "Fossil Natural Gas Exit – A New Narrative for the European Energy Transformation towards Decarbonization," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1892, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    9. Knut Einar Rosendahl & Eirik Lund Sagen, 2009. "The Global Natural Gas Market: Will Transport Cost Reductions Lead to Lower Prices?," The Energy Journal, , vol. 30(2), pages 17-40, April.
    10. Irina Suleymanova & Franz Hubert, 2007. "Strategic Investment in International Gas-Transport Systems: A Dynamic Analysis of the Hold-up Problem," Energy and Environmental Modeling 2007 24000059, EcoMod.
    11. Richter, Philipp M. & Holz, Franziska, 2015. "All quiet on the eastern front? Disruption scenarios of Russian natural gas supply to Europe," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 177-189.
    12. Marina Tsygankova, 2007. "The Export of Russian Gas to Europe: Breaking Up the Monopoly of Gazprom," Energy and Environmental Modeling 2007 24000062, EcoMod.
    13. Wietze Lise & Benjamin F. Hobbs, 2009. "A Dynamic Simulation of Market Power in the Liberalised European Natural Gas Market," The Energy Journal, , vol. 30(1_suppl), pages 119-136, June.
    14. Le Coq, Chloé & Paltseva, Elena, 2012. "Assessing gas transit risks: Russia vs. the EU," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 642-650.
    15. Schulte, Simon & Weiser, Florian, 2017. "Natural Gas Transits and Market Power - The Case of Turkey," EWI Working Papers 2017-6, Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI), revised 15 Aug 2017.
    16. Cobanli, Onur, 2014. "Central Asian gas in Eurasian power game," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 348-370.
    17. Sagen, Eirik Lund & Tsygankova, Marina, 2008. "Russian natural gas exports--Will Russian gas price reforms improve the European security of supply," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 867-880, February.
    18. Youngho Chang & Dang Thi Quynh Trang & Tsiat Siong Tan & Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary, 2021. "Competition and cooperation in the natural gas market: a game-theoretic demand-base analysis," Asia Europe Journal, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 21-49, December.
    19. Dominique Finon & Catherine Locatelli, 2008. "Russian and European gas interdependence. Can market forces balance out geopolitics?," Post-Print halshs-00129618, HAL.
    20. Chyong, Chi Kong & Hobbs, Benjamin F., 2014. "Strategic Eurasian natural gas market model for energy security and policy analysis: Formulation and application to South Stream," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 198-211.
    21. Paula Fereira & Isabel Soares & Madalena Araujo, 2012. "The Impact of Fuel and CO2 Prices on Electricity Power Plans," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(4), pages 31-46.
    22. Ekaterina Orlova & Franz Hubert, 2012. "Competition or Countervailing Power for the European Gas Market," EcoMod2012 4490, EcoMod.

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    JEL classification:

    • F0 - International Economics - - General

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