IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ces/ceswps/_5387.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Liberalizing Russian Gas Markets - An Economic Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Finn Roar Aune
  • Rolf Golombek
  • Hilde Hallre
  • Arild Moe
  • Knut Einar Rosendahl

Abstract

The Russian gas market is highly regulated. In this paper we examine possible impacts of regulatory changes on the demand side of this market. In particular, we consider the effects on Russian energy consumers of removing natural gas subsidies, and how changes in Russian gas consumption may affect its gas export to Europe. We also examine the importance of Russian pipeline capacity to Europe, as well as impacts of hypothetical changes in Russian gas export behavior. For this purpose, we use a detailed numerical model for the energy markets in Europe and Russia – LIBEMOD. Our results suggest that removing implicit subsidies to Russian gas consumers will have substantial impacts on total consumption of gas in Russia, especially in the electricity sector. Gas exports to Europe will be significantly affected as more gas becomes available for exports. Removal of other market imperfections in the Russian energy markets has smaller impacts on prices and quantities than removing gas subsidies. More competitive Russian gas export behavior would lead to much higher gas export to Europe, but our results suggest that Russian welfare would drop due to lower gas export prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Finn Roar Aune & Rolf Golombek & Hilde Hallre & Arild Moe & Knut Einar Rosendahl, 2015. "Liberalizing Russian Gas Markets - An Economic Analysis," CESifo Working Paper Series 5387, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_5387
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.cesifo.org/DocDL/cesifo1_wp5387.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Tarr, David G., 2010. "Export restraints on russian natural gas and raw timber : what are the economic impacts ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5195, The World Bank.
    2. Kristine Grimsrud & Knut Einar Rosendahl & Halvor B. Storrøsten & Marina Tsygankova, 2016. "Short Run Effects of Bleaker Prospects for Oligopolistic Producers of a Non-renewable Resource," The Energy Journal, , vol. 37(3), pages 293-314, July.
    3. Richter, Philipp M. & Holz, Franziska, 2015. "All quiet on the eastern front? Disruption scenarios of Russian natural gas supply to Europe," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 177-189.
    4. Christian von Hirschhausen & Berit Meinhart & Ferdinand Pavel, 2005. "Transporting Russian Gas to Western Europe A Simulation Analysis," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 49-68.
    5. Golombek, Rolf & Brekke, Kjell Arne & Kittelsen, Sverre A.C., 2013. "Is electricity more important than natural gas? Partial liberalizations of the Western European energy markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 99-111.
    6. Paltsev, Sergey, 2014. "Scenarios for Russia's natural gas exports to 2050," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 262-270.
    7. Golombek, Rolf & Kittelsen, Sverre A.C. & Rosendahl, Knut Einar, 2013. "Price and welfare effects of emission quota allocation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 568-580.
    8. Marina Tsygankova, 2008. "Netback pricing as a remedy for the Russian gas deficit," Discussion Papers 554, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    9. Michael Alexeev & Shlomo Weber, 2013. "Russian economy, the," The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics,, Palgrave Macmillan.
    10. Peter R. Hartley & Kenneth B. Medlock III, 2009. "Potential Futures for Russian Natural Gas Exports," The Energy Journal, , vol. 30(1_suppl), pages 73-96, June.
    11. Sagen, Eirik Lund & Tsygankova, Marina, 2008. "Russian natural gas exports--Will Russian gas price reforms improve the European security of supply," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 867-880, February.
    12. Goldthau, Andreas, 2008. "Rhetoric versus reality: Russian threats to European energy supply," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 686-692, February.
    13. Tsygankova, Marina, 2010. "When is a break-up of Gazprom good for Russia?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 908-917, July.
    14. Tsygankova, Marina, 2012. "An evaluation of alternative scenarios for the Gazprom monopoly of Russian gas exports," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 153-161.
    15. Finn Roar Aune & Rolf Golombek & Sverre A.C. Kittelsen & Knut Einar Rosendahl, 2008. "Liberalizing European Energy Markets," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 3071.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Finn Roar Aune & Rolf Golombek, 2021. "Are Carbon Prices Redundant in the 2030 EU Climate and Energy Policy Package?," The Energy Journal, , vol. 42(3), pages 225-264, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Heyndrickx, Christophe & Alexeeva-Talebi, Victoria & Tourdyeva, Natalia, 2012. "To raise or not to raise? Impact assessment of Russia's incremental gas price reform," ZEW Discussion Papers 12-052, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    2. Richter, Philipp M. & Holz, Franziska, 2015. "All quiet on the eastern front? Disruption scenarios of Russian natural gas supply to Europe," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 177-189.
    3. Christophe Heyndrickx & Victoria Alexeeva-Taleebi & Natalia Tourdyeva, 2014. "To raise or not to raise: Impact assessment of Russia's gas price reform," ERSA conference papers ersa14p1535, European Regional Science Association.
    4. Orlov, Anton, 2015. "An assessment of optimal gas pricing in Russia: A CGE approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 492-506.
    5. Tsatsos, Aristidis, 2012. "Die Liberalisierung des russischen Gassektors: 3 Szenarios? [The liberalisation of the Russian gas sector: 3 scenarios?]," MPRA Paper 44623, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Adrienn Selei & Borbála Tóth & Gustav Resch & László Szabó & Lukas Liebmann & Péter Kaderják, 2017. "How far is mitigation of Russian gas dependency possible through energy efficiency and renewable policies assuming different gas market structures?," Energy & Environment, , vol. 28(1-2), pages 54-69, March.
    7. Le Coq, Chloé & Paltseva, Elena, 2012. "Assessing gas transit risks: Russia vs. the EU," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 642-650.
    8. Orlov, Anton, 2016. "Effects of higher domestic gas prices in Russia on the European gas market: A game theoretical Hotelling model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 188-199.
    9. Rolf Golombek & Kjell Arne Brekke & Michal Kaut & Sverre A.C. Kittelsen & Stein W. Wallace, 2016. "Stochastic equilibrium modeling: The Impact of Uncertainty on the European Energy Market," EcoMod2016 9201, EcoMod.
    10. Chyong, Chi Kong & Hobbs, Benjamin F., 2014. "Strategic Eurasian natural gas market model for energy security and policy analysis: Formulation and application to South Stream," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 198-211.
    11. Paltsev, Sergey, 2014. "Scenarios for Russia's natural gas exports to 2050," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 262-270.
    12. Locatelli, C. & Abbas, M., 2019. "Interdépendance complexe et hybridation des modèles institutionnels nationaux : le cas des relations énergétique UE-Russie," Working Papers 2019-02, Grenoble Applied Economics Laboratory (GAEL).
    13. Anca Gabriela Ilie & Marinela Luminita Emanuela Zlatea & Cristina Negreanu & Dan Dumitriu & Alma Pentescu, 2023. "Reliance on Russian Federation Energy Imports and Renewable Energy in the European Union," The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 25(64), pages 780-780, August.
    14. Selei, Adrienn & Takácsné Tóth, Borbála, 2022. "A modelling-based assessment of EU supported natural gas projects of common interest," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
    15. Marina Tsygankova, 2008. "Netback pricing as a remedy for the Russian gas deficit," Discussion Papers 554, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    16. Kristine Grimsrud & Knut Einar Rosendahl & Halvor B. Storrøsten & Marina Tsygankova, 2016. "Short Run Effects of Bleaker Prospects for Oligopolistic Producers of a Non-renewable Resource," The Energy Journal, , vol. 37(3), pages 293-314, July.
    17. Huppmann, Daniel & Egging, Ruud, 2014. "Market power, fuel substitution and infrastructure – A large-scale equilibrium model of global energy markets," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 483-500.
    18. Steven A. Gabriel & Arild Moe & Knut Einar Rosendahl & Marina Tsygankova, 2013. "The likelihood and potential implications of a natural gas cartel," Chapters, in: Roger Fouquet (ed.), Handbook on Energy and Climate Change, chapter 3, pages 86-102, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    19. Judith Clifton & Daniel Díaz-Fuentes, 2010. "Is the European Union Ready for Foreign Direct Investment from Emerging Markets?," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Karl P. Sauvant & Geraldine McAllister & Wolfgang A. Maschek (ed.), Foreign Direct Investments from Emerging Markets, chapter 0, pages 335-358, Palgrave Macmillan.
    20. Chi Kong Chyong & David M Reiner & Dhruvak Aggarwal, 2023. "Market Power and Long-term Gas Contracts: The Case of Gazprom in Central and Eastern European Gas Markets," The Energy Journal, , vol. 44(1), pages 55-74, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Russian gas prices; Russian gas export; European energy market;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q48 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Government Policy
    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_5387. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Klaus Wohlrabe (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cesifde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.