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Retrospectives: The Phillips Curve: A Rushed Job?

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  • A. G. Sleeman

Abstract

Half a century ago, Economica published what its webpage claims is "the most heavily cited macroeconomics title of the 20th century"—the paper by A. W. H. "Bill" Phillips (1958) that introduced the Phillips curve. Based on admittedly circumstantial evidence, I will argue that Bill Phillips was not satisfied with the paper and had not intended to publish it in 1958. I believe that Phillips was persuaded to allow his paper to be published in 1958 by James Meade. After a brief overview of Phillips' early life and career, I attempt to show why Phillips was probably unhappy with the paper that introduced the curve that came to be identified with his name and how, nevertheless, it came to be published.

Suggested Citation

  • A. G. Sleeman, 2011. "Retrospectives: The Phillips Curve: A Rushed Job?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 25(1), pages 223-238, Winter.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:jecper:v:25:y:2011:i:1:p:223-38
    Note: DOI: 10.1257/jep.25.1.223
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    File URL: http://www.aeaweb.org/articles.php?doi=10.1257/jep.25.1.223
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. A. W. Phillips, 1958. "The Relation Between Unemployment and the Rate of Change of Money Wage Rates in the United Kingdom, 1861–1957," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 25(100), pages 283-299, November.
    2. Leeson,Robert (ed.), 2000. "A. W. H. Phillips: Collected Works in Contemporary Perspective," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521571357, September.
    3. Shadman-Mehta, Fatemeh, 1996. "Does Modern Econometrics replicate the Phillips Curve?," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 1996015, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    4. Nancy J. Wulwick, 1996. "Two Econometric Replications: The Historic Phillips and Lipsey-Phillips Curves," History of Political Economy, Duke University Press, vol. 28(3), pages 391-439, Fall.
    5. Leeson, Robert, 1998. "Early Doubts about the Phillips Curve Trade-Off," Journal of the History of Economic Thought, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(1), pages 83-102, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Michael A. Clemens, 2017. "The Meaning Of Failed Replications: A Review And Proposal," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(1), pages 326-342, February.
    2. Abbas, Syed K. & Bhattacharya, Prasad Sankar & Sgro, Pasquale, 2016. "The new Keynesian Phillips curve: An update on recent empirical advances," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 378-403.
    3. Barrera, Carlos, 2014. "La relación entre los ciclos discretos en la inflación y el crecimiento: Perú 1993 - 2012," Working Papers 2014-024, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    4. Katarína Danišková & Jarko Fidrmuc, 2012. "Meta-Analysis of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Working Papers 314, Leibniz Institut für Ost- und Südosteuropaforschung (Institute for East and Southeast European Studies).
    5. Baffigi, Alberto & Bontempi, Maria Elena & Felice, Emanuele & Golinelli, Roberto, 2015. "The changing relationship between inflation and the economic cycle in Italy: 1861–2012," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 53-70.
    6. Jarko Fidrmuc & Katarína Danišková, 2020. "Meta-Analysis of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve in Developed and Emerging Economies," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(1), pages 10-31, January.
    7. Mohammad Naim Azimi, 2016. "Drawing on Phillips curve: does the inverse relation between inflation and unemployment persist in transitional economies," International Journal of Economics and Accounting, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 7(2), pages 89-100.
    8. Roger Middleton, 2017. "Macroeconomics and the Phillips Curve Myth, by James Forder," The European Journal of the History of Economic Thought, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(3), pages 591-597, May.

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    JEL classification:

    • B22 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - Macroeconomics
    • B31 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought: Individuals - - - Individuals
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity

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