IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/nathaz/v75y2015i1p541-556.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Impacts of the global economic crisis and Tohoku earthquake on Sino–Japan trade: a comparative perspective

Author

Listed:
  • Man Li
  • Tao Ye
  • Peijun Shi
  • Jian Fang

Abstract

The increasingly globalized and networked world coupled with enlarging spatial scope and severity of natural and man-made hazards are leading to significant cross-boundary impacts. It has not been adequately addressed that how those impacts transmit from one (sub-) system/network to another and how the socioeconomic systems respond. This paper examines the impact of the global economic crisis and the Tohoku earthquake on Sino–Japan trade based on trade data released by the Japanese Ministry of Finance. Our time series analysis model shows that in the short term, the economic crisis has an impact of 66 % larger than that of the earthquake. The impact of economic crisis is more acute and deep due to the collapse of consumers’ and investors’ confidence, but for the earthquake, it is more gradual as the impact spreads via production chain and supply chain across industries and regions. The pattern implies critical difference in disaster risk reduction strategies for the two types of catastrophes. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2015

Suggested Citation

  • Man Li & Tao Ye & Peijun Shi & Jian Fang, 2015. "Impacts of the global economic crisis and Tohoku earthquake on Sino–Japan trade: a comparative perspective," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 75(1), pages 541-556, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:75:y:2015:i:1:p:541-556
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-014-1335-9
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11069-014-1335-9
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11069-014-1335-9?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Molly Fifer McIntosh, 2008. "Measuring the Labor Market Impacts of Hurricane Katrina Migration: Evidence from Houston, Texas," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(2), pages 54-57, May.
    2. De Gooijer, Jan G. & Hyndman, Rob J., 2006. "25 years of time series forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 443-473.
    3. Chor, Davin & Manova, Kalina, 2012. "Off the cliff and back? Credit conditions and international trade during the global financial crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 117-133.
    4. Elisabeth Krausmann & Ana Cruz, 2013. "Impact of the 11 March 2011, Great East Japan earthquake and tsunami on the chemical industry," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 67(2), pages 811-828, June.
    5. Yasuhide Okuyama, 2010. "Globalization and Localization of Disaster Impacts: An Empirical Examination," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 11(02), pages 56-66, July.
    6. Hirokazu Tatano & Satoshi Tsuchiya, 2008. "A framework for economic loss estimation due to seismic transportation network disruption: a spatial computable general equilibrium approach," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 44(2), pages 253-265, February.
    7. Dirk Helbing, 2013. "Globally networked risks and how to respond," Nature, Nature, vol. 497(7447), pages 51-59, May.
    8. Balke, Nathan S & Fomby, Thomas B, 1994. "Large Shocks, Small Shocks, and Economic Fluctuations: Outliers in Macroeconomic Time Series," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(2), pages 181-200, April-Jun.
    9. Robert A. Baade & Robert Baumann & Victor Matheson, 2007. "Estimating the Economic Impact of Natural and Social Disasters, with an Application to Hurricane Katrina," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 44(11), pages 2061-2076, October.
    10. Dakshina G. De Silva & Robert P. McComb & Young-Kyu Moh & Anita R. Schiller & Andres J. Vargas, 2010. "The Effect of Migration on Wages: Evidence from a Natural Experiment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 321-326, May.
    11. Mitsuyo ANDO & Fukunari KIMURA, 2012. "How Did the Japanese Exports Respond to Two Crises in the International Production Network?: The Global Financial Crisis and the East Japan Earthquake," Working Papers DP-2012-01, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA).
    12. Mitsuyo Ando & Fukunari Kimura, 2012. "How did the Japanese Exports Respond to Two Crises in the International Production Networks? The Global Financial Crisis and the Great East Japan Earthquake," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 26(3), pages 261-287, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Álvarez, Roberto & Sáez, Camila, 2014. "“Post financial crisis and exports expansion: Micro-evidence from Chilean exporters”," MPRA Paper 60637, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Felix L. Friedt, 2021. "Natural disasters, aggregate trade resilience, and local disruptions: Evidence from Hurricane Katrina," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(5), pages 1081-1120, November.
    3. THORBECKE William, 2016. "Increasing the Resilience of Asian Supply Chains to Natural Disasters: The Role of the Financial Sector," Working Papers DP-2016-08, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA).
    4. Johar, Meliyanni & Johnston, David W. & Shields, Michael A. & Siminski, Peter & Stavrunova, Olena, 2022. "The economic impacts of direct natural disaster exposure," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 196(C), pages 26-39.
    5. Joan Monras, 2020. "Immigration and Wage Dynamics: Evidence from the Mexican Peso Crisis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 128(8), pages 3017-3089.
    6. Hayato Kato & Toshihiro Okubo, 2022. "The Resilience of FDI to Natural Disasters Through Industrial Linkages," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 82(1), pages 177-225, May.
    7. Ayako Obashi, 2021. "East Asian Production Networks Amidst the COVID-19 Shock," Working Papers DP-2021-10, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA).
    8. Martina Kirchberger, 2014. "Natural Disasters and Labour Markets," Economics Series Working Papers WPS/2014-19, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    9. Kim, Bong-Han & Kim, Hyeongwoo & Lee, Bong-Soo, 2015. "Spillover effects of the U.S. financial crisis on financial markets in emerging Asian countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 192-210.
    10. Barbieri, Stefano & Edwards, John H.Y., 2017. "Middle-class flight from post-Katrina New Orleans: A theoretical analysis of inequality and schooling," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 12-29.
    11. Chin‐Ho Lin, 2020. "Impact of tariff rates on the probability of trade relationship survival: Evidence from ASEAN+6 manufactured goods," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(4), pages 457-474, October.
    12. Yingqi Zhu & Ying Wang & Tianxue Liu & Qi Sui, 2018. "Assessing macroeconomic recovery after a natural hazard based on ARIMA—a case study of the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake in China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 91(3), pages 1025-1038, April.
    13. Willem Thorbecke, 2015. "Enjoying the Fruits of Their Labor: Redirecting Exports to Asian Consumers," Asian Development Review, MIT Press, vol. 32(2), pages 95-114, September.
    14. Eiji Yamamura, 2015. "Impact of the Fukushima nuclear accident on the body mass index of children in Japan 2010-2014," ISER Discussion Paper 0941, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
    15. Eiji Yamamura & Chisako Yamane & Shoko Yamane & Yoshiro Tsutsui, 2022. "Effect of major disasters on geographic mobility intentions: the case of the Fukushima nuclear accident," Chapters, in: Mark Skidmore (ed.), Handbook on the Economics of Disasters, chapter 14, pages 275-291, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    16. Yamamura, Eiji, 2016. "Impact of the Fukushima nuclear accident on obesity of children in Japan (2008–2014)," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 110-121.
    17. ARATA Yoshiyuki & MIYAKAWA Daisuke, 2022. "Demand Shock Propagation Through an Input-output Network in Japan," Discussion papers 22027, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    18. Okubo, Toshihiro & Kimura, Fukunari & Teshima, Nozomu, 2014. "Asian fragmentation in the Global Financial Crisis," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 114-127.
    19. Baldwin, Richard & Okubo, Toshihiro, 2019. "GVC journeys: Industrialisation and deindustrialisation in the age of the second unbundling," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 53-67.
    20. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/31alui3q4c913als7a73udp5dv is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Shin-ichi Fukuda & Tsutomu Doita, 2015. "Unconventional Monetary Policy and its External Effects: Evidence from Japan’s Exports," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-967, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:75:y:2015:i:1:p:541-556. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.